Member Info for TDDW

JMAX - Your old argument has been proved. No reason to assume it will work as well this time - the Middle East wasn't on fire a year ago when you made it - we are in a new paradigm and all arguments need to be revisited and checked for voracity.

I brought in November so I don't care what the 52 day moving average is. I can't sell someone a share's 52 day moving average. Not sure what people make such a big deal about it.

Shall we move on from calling each other names - apologies if I have called you any names (JMAX/Draft). Hopefully my sense of humour will grow on both of you very soon.

So why hasn't Sam brought some Tullow (I think it's worth noting, he doesn't seem to have brought anything!!! From what AI is telling me Seplat/Aradel have not been added to). Is he scared, are the bankers calling in credit limits, is he just trying to keep his powder dry, does he have private equity deals keeping him busy?

Conclusion - I see no evidence he had cash in March that he could deploy to buy Tullow shares (not conclusive evidence - he does not have to report unecumbered cash after all)

Tullow looks like the smallest of his positions and it is 66% down.

Some people have a "No Averaging Down rule" and so buying more Tullow would break their rule. It may just not be big enough for him to care! Strange as that may seem to us.

Not conclusive but still a possibility that can't be ruled out

Also, how do you know he has access to Tullow's new hedging strategy, which unless very different to the current strategy, would be market moving information. I'm guessing JMAX assumption is.... (please correct me)

He knows that the oil is heavily hedged and therefore ... don't buy any more Tullow as it won't benefit much from the oil price, and in fact is likely going to get hurt by higher interest rates caused by inflation. But, if that is his logic then why not just sell? You then have a tax loss you can use against one of your winning trades.

Also, if he does know the hedging strategy and he buys.... wouldn't he be chased by the PRA/FCA for insider trading. See David Einhorn 2012. Isn't he effectively in a self imposed closed period, if your assumption is right!

Nothing I have said is conclusive but you talk as if your interpretation is conclusive .... beyond a shadow of doubt. I think you're confusing have a strong argument with having a bullet proof argument.

If something is a 1 in 3 but the pay-off is a 10 bagger you should take those bets every day of the week and Tullow is proving a very profitable trade.

My bias is. Using rich people trading activity to infer hidden information is in fact lazy analysis - it makes a person look smart when they are just short cutting analysis. It assumes all rich people don't follow the rules - Ok Trump is not helping my argument - And it appeals to the crowd who assumes the world is rigged against them. You will often be right but you will miss opportunities that outweigh's the warm feeling of smugness.

Sorry for such a rambling post but I think it is worth mulling over

Time will tell. As we are in for the long wait. Do you want to hazard a guess at the oil price. Also, you can't prove your argument either. I'll refer you to the work of Karl Popper and what can be proved. But we should find out in a couple of weeks time. Even then, TLW is probably the right side of history. Better to be lucky than right I say.

You are sounding very grumpy today JMAX - what has draft done to you. The sun's out and London is chugging along. Slowly burning through it stock piles of oil, diesel and probably sulphur.

So, have you had a good day trading. Want to guess what next month's Oil price will be. All you win are bragging rights - which can be very valuable or strangely ephereal.

Not Tullow related - I'll write an email to Racheal in accounts. Channel all the wealth from the North Sea Wind turbines into a SWF. In ten years enough money to buy up Swindon town and put a down payment on a right back. See how you like them apples Man City!!!!

Norwegians would say North Sea is great.

PS not tullow related, oil tax introduced by the Tories and not changed by Labour. As a HBR shareholder I would win if they cancelled it. Strangely, I'd rather have some North Sea oil sitting there doing nothing - just incase the absolute worst happened. If we go to a world where no boat can cross the major oceans due to drone attack we might actually be glad it sitting out there. Miliband would look like a genius just as Merkel will retrospectively be credited with destroying the Russian empire.

Well do you want to pick a number Anton, I mean mark9999. Suggest you don't go for $9999

Well before he goes, JMAX, do yo want to guess a price for next month Platts Scott. If you don't pick a price Anton might pick it and you know that would gaul you. In it to win it.

On a more serious note, Iran was having catastrophic water shortages - imagine water so scarce they considered moving Terrane to somewhere new?

The uprising of their people was not about girls rights to play football (sorry BBC looking at you). It was a reaction to a government that you can't vote out and who were failing.

Trump thought he could push them and topple a weak power - such a bully. The irony is he may be giving them a second wind. Not his problem he's got a Mid Term to win.

The American's have been complaining about Germany buying oil from the Ruskie's since Willy Brandt. And this was when Russia was Communist not Maga with fluffy seal hats.

Relevance for TLW. As I said. Everyone in the Middle East needs to get that oil curve shifted up - not just the spot. Fly in ointment is Russia who typically undercuts when the Middle East appears to coalesce. So Tony's post earlier is very pertinent.

Google doesn't recognise Gulf of Mexico any more. Tony's post will get down ranked. It's still 50/50 on Gulf of Britannia/English Channel

There is the "American pulling back" from the world thesis. Once Iran has stabilised.... will America turn a blind eye to Zelensky targeting the shadow fleet? An escalation unlike anything we have seen since WW2?

Not sure that would be good long term for TLW, but might cause a spike. I'm not a big proponent of ANAS. American Navy As a Service. Not really built for that sort of thing, and has a tendency to go walk about when you need it most. (Don't get teary eyed for the British Navy). This is so not investment advice.

JMAX - Instead of picking fights why not pick a price. 108 and 150 are gone. Imagine the glory if you guessed this right. Bragging rights for days.

So Tony is guessing at $150 for the next boat load of TLW crude. I'm going to guess at $108. Who wants to have a stab. Remember only one go (looking at you JMAX)

Jmax - TLW climbing a wall of worry. Neigh a positive Mount Everest. If anyone else has done any Sam analysis.... am curious. But not curious enough to do it myself.

I spent a little time investigating Sam and AZV positions but got bored - don't really have access to the correct datasets to do anything useful.

I don't know if Tony have any old contacts in UBS :-)

JMAX - Prove Sam is in a position to add to any of his positions. For all I know he might have everything on leverage and his Prime Broker is calling him every day trying to get him to sell something (or he's expressing his view via structured products). He could be about to be margin called and I think the issue is Tullow. When the issue is some shady Mali/Russian deal going south and I should be filling my boots! If I'm wrong the downside is small (I brought in November). If I'm right the upside is large.

I not the type of investor who watches what WB does and then goes oh I suddenly really like Occidental for some reason :-)

The real question is what are Glencore traders doing? No opinions JMAX. Just direct evidence would interest me.

Until it get to a market cap of 500 million a lot of the big boys can't invest. They have liquidity limits.

@JMAX - I think TLW is leveraged to oil.

Just not in a nice 1 to 1 way. Remember how Gold rallied and then the Gold miners rallied later - its leverage with a lag. You can't post dross like that and expect not to be called out (think of that reputation). The question is, is the leverage on the Oil enough to counteract the leverage going the other way on the debt? Can't acknowledge one without acknowledging the other.

Wouldn't go so far as US bond doom loop but, at least short term, weaker Dollar while Trump is in. EM does well, consumes more oil. China then sell EM loads of ICE cars at less than cost, EM consumes more oil.

Fly in ointment will be if AI takes off. Will the American government extract enough tax from our AI overlords to pay for drone defences and deficits - dollar up if they can, otherwise back to 2009 and Meta and Amazon off-shoring dollars. Longer term bad for TLW, probably

Remember, in an historical inflection, strange things happen to assets and I think TLW will be a beneficiary. Friday was probably the last chance to buy the dip, sigh.

I'm not a Tony or a Thumbelbow

I may have been being a bit facetious with the Korea comment.

Playing devils. China has tons of oil locked up in storage. If a credible cease fire is negotiated they will want to unlock it, tout suite, to front run the Saudi's, for all the reasons about sludgy oil you have given in previous posts - well worth a read if you have not read Tony's posts *** (let's discount invasion of Taiwan for a moment as they can buy oil for 2027 on the futures market).

Then even if boats are going slower, there will be a deluge of oil and refined product from china, and the Greek shippers will be the winners. All eyes on Trumps meeting with Xi May14th.

Also, your modelling needs to suddenly flip. Instead of a slow rusty tanker from Hormuz to Japan you could get a partially processed Oil products from china to Japan. Slightly different mix of boats, slightly different mix of age/repair and distance. Sadly beyond my pay grade to model.

Still, I very much like TLW but keeping my feet firmly on the ground. So what will all the Teapot refineries do with the sudden windfall. By Gold and Silver. So long PM (sorry couldn't resit)

*** You think the CCP can't front run Trump twitter account :-) better than Hegseth's buddies