Member Info for TDDW

BB_Hoopa, " $120 oil only lasted for weeks..."

I remember 120 well. I would say that we didn't sanction Russian oil, we capped Russian oil and then got European politician (Including English) to say we have imposed sanctions on Russian. Which was true. We sanctioned their Caviar and their cars.

We did not sanction their Oil, their Nickel or their Titanium. (you can't have a air bus without Russian Titanium)

I feel that comparing Ukraine and Iran will get you into all sort of problems.

Crash in gold is a bit strong but central banks have swapped gold for Dollars, particulary Turkey. In a crisis people seem to flee to Fiat.

Although JMAX is right, SAM has access to more info. That info does not just pertain to Tullow. Sam will have a choice of investments and opportunities we won't have - particular in private equity and just investment banks calling him up with ideas. Looking at his exposure to precious metals he will also have constraints that hems him in. He may not be able to buy more for fear of margin calls.

By the way top tip. The reason Buffet has not brought Tullow up is not that it "won't quadruple from here". It's because, even if it did quadruple, it would not materially impact his portfolio.

It's interesting that very few of the oil companies I follow have shown much insider buying. :-)

I shouldn't have made that FRES quip. Shall we pull it back to TLW. So Uganda...

British Government has been a debt paying zombie since the Napoleonic war and Gilt returns have been reasonably good most decades (cough, cough forget the 70's)

All the gains are to be had with a bankrupt company going to a bad company.

You will never have another chance like this again JMAX. And what's more, you can maintain your record of always being right (and make some money this time !!!! ). Don't let your ego get in the way of a good investment.

JMAX, since the war ...hasn't FRES dropped 20% and TLW risen 30%? Asking for a friend :-)

Scaffman, you fell into my trap... I was hoping someone was going to ask that. So.......

Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_attacked_during_the_2026_Iran_war

If you go down this list (and it is ambiguous) there seems to be a mixture of air and sea drones. No MINES so far.

If Iran mines the straight then all boats are forced to hug the Iranian coast line... You would not mine your beaches...

If I was Saudi, and now the Hormuz is blocked to me, I think I would mine the Iranian side so it was blocked to my regional enemy - I can at least get 8 million barrels out into a hot market. Then Iraq can only get oil out via train to China. There are some limited smuggling options, including across Israel, but not enough to support an economy of 89 million (who aren't great fans of the current administration's economic management). Wisdom of Solomon issue here.

Remember, Saudi would need to come to some understanding with the Houthi's and build further pipelines or otherwise commit genocide on the Houthi. Do able but expensive and time-consuming. Say goodbye to Neom

Basically, as much as MBS is NOT a nice guy. I'm think he would be loathed to turn his neighbourhood into the Middle Ages. He likes his computer games and Sci-Fi films.

Everything done so far - as far as I can see - can be fixed or corrected quite quickly. Exceptions

- damage to gas fields (will it really take 3 years to fix)

If that is true you can see why Oil is trapped around 90-110. World economy limps ons.

Please note, gas prices are currently lower in America than at the start of the war. The gas is trapped. There are however a slew of LNG plants coming on line 2025-27. For the American's this is perfect timing. Far more leverage negotiating off take agreements for these plants. If some Russian gas pipes get blown up. All the better

I don't see a $200 dollar oil print but I could see several spikes to $140. For me the real question is .... Are oil refineries shutting down (bad for Tullow) Or are we muddling along in a world where Tullow's greatest competitor (Saudi is long term impaired). Tullow is part of the solution to keeping the refiners going while we wait for Saudi oil to come back and the economy to recover.

Thank-you xxnjr

Is there any evidence they have laid any mines? My understanding is they have not. Some might say a drone is a flying mine but what would I know.

Look I don't want to be controversial... but could Iran be lying? Just throwing it out there

Sadly Selpec, and this is not a criticism, you were robbed. Those CLNs are good way of obfuscating retail investors. Good company, awful capital structure

Read @Tonyb33 posts before my stream of consciousness.

Before you say I'm a shorter. I would rather see 2 years of oil at the 90-100 range than a few months now at the $200. In fact high prices really worry me for Tullow.

My take is all active parties (apart from Israel) have only one "Shared" point of agreement. If the Oil curve goes up... that is good for them - as they have oil fields priced on the curve not on the spot. Everything else they disagree on. I don't know what the final agreement will look like but I would be surprised if USA, Saudi, Oman, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain chose a solution that pulled the long term curve down. ****

If Oil spot goes too high. That is bad as it causes a global recession, so then there is no one to repo your oil assets with! The Saudi's remember this well from the 70's and won't make that mistake. Remember, they have a NEOM pipe line to build.

**** If Oil long term goes up... won't that be inflationary... won't that make the American's deficit worse? The answer is possibly. If the American can sell oil and missiles quicker than the deficit going up they will outgrow there problem - Scott Bessent has the trading chops to manage this - would be really worried if he went.

Basically America is a Tullow is Macro-cosm!

Let the games begin

Tonyb33, When you say "Well the Iranians are stalling on ships leaving the Strait in the first two days only one non Iranian ship has left. Yesterday a drone hit the East West pipeline pumping station. Funny the USA is letting Iran get away with it, maybe they realise the game." ... are you getting that from Zerohedge?

If Iran tried to damage Saudi's long term oil production that would have a knock on effect to Chinese teapot refineries. Remember Saudi supplies far more oil to China than Iran. So if you were Chinese, would you be still sending them drone parts. Remember it's the drones not the mines giving them the leverage.

Sorry yes, shut ins not lock ins. Freudian slip by me. At least you know I'm no Chat GP generated :-)

Even if traffic picks up, some of the wells will need re-drilling because of lockins. So it won't go back to 140 ships for some time.

Will some countries increase their oil reserves, so oil goes straight out of the ground and then back into salt caves (What was that boat yard that was going to build an SPR in Northern Island - I almost brought some shares)

Finally, I think Ukraine will take out Russian oil more aggressively. Iran has enforced an oil embargo and no one - other than America - has sent troops. I think Ukraine now knows Europe hasn't the balls to stop them, don't send them missiles and have Putin at your gate. I think not.

We are probably looking at the wrong region for oil going off-line.

Sadly 2027 will be the year Saudi decide to neutralise the Houthi. Will they pay the American's or do a deal with Wagner. (Dark days)

@JMAX. Well you have your day in court and at the end of it you can point out you also made some money holding TLW as it rode the Oil bull market. What's not to like?

@JMAX. How do you know. You spend all your time on TLW. You might as well make some money while you bully Anton.

@JMAX - Oil was $70 a year ago and I agree TLW was a Zombie. Not sure the 2026 sequel is a zombie movie (Did anyone see the film Hail Mary over Easter).

Sam, because of who he is, has access to deals that will never cross our tables. He's probably at this very moment - running around Dubai - buying up Penthouse flats from Premiere league football players, at 2cents on the dollar.

I can't do that! So Tullow isn't a bad second. (10 cents on the dollar).

There will be private assets in this environment which will be ridiculously cheap - once those are gobbled up we will see. On a side note, I noted AEG's RNS the other day with some interest?

By the way, you didn't say if you were taking a large, medium or small position if the insiders start buying. If you buy later TLW will be higher and it might become a blood sucking movie.

One other thing @JMAX. If he buys more how much are you buying on his recommendation (Surely you should fill up the boat)