Member Info for TDDW

Sageman - Not the board to argue Trump strategy. I think there is one but I think Iran is a tactical play within his overall strategy. I also concede his team has some very clever people in it. Trump isn't one of them. PS, Churchill great Politician, Journalist and Historian. Awful General and Economist. You can't be good at everything.

Sageman - very easy to achieve what you want if you don't tell people what you wanted until after the deal. Saved you reading art of the deal there.

Oh, and as to TLW's share price. It's disappointed shareholders for 5 to 10 years. Until TLW prints positive results no external investor is going to come in - there is no goodwill for this company and its projections (as JMAX points out so astutuely). This is what is called a "Show me story". And there will be an entire host of bag holders who will sell to them confused about the price action. There is several months of dumb money overhang to allow the smart money to get in and then bid the share up - possibly with a capital raise to help to get friends and family in.

This post will get people riled up.

Fewdollorsmore - if Trump causes a global recession / depression then you get the demand destruction that balances the market. So basically you no longer need the missing 13 million barrels a day because the global economy is broke. Then the price would fall to 60-70 and if the Straight of Hormuz opens the price of oil would collapse below that. This would be bad for Tullow, although share price might not go down by much - but not why you would hold TLW.

So $90 dollar is not a given - but my base case for 2026 is 90-80 so I'm not totally disagreeing with you - would be surprised to see a spike above 120.

Anyway, the fact that TLW is not moving (and in fact better oil companies like HBR and CNE are falling) is far more to do a lacklustre oil curve. Until the entire curve moves up it is not clear why the price of oil companies (which are priced on the curve not on the spot) will go up by much. You price a companies on their future cash flows not just the next cashflow. Tullow's cashflows are uniquely levered because of their high debt and therefore - in a goldilocks senario should demonstrate higher convexity than blue chip oil companies. I can't stress though, it has to be "not too hot and not too cold" for this to work.

If TLW can make a sizeable bite out of its debt then it will reprice a bit, again depends what interest rates do at the 5 to 10 year when TLW will refinance.

The oil curve will only move when economically driven actors go to price next quarter/next years business. Any speculators trying to front run this will get beaten to an inch of their life by Trump's twitter account. This is not your father's oil crisis - the only trader allowed in is Bessant.

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So even if TLW bombs tomorrow I will wait. I expect the oil curve to show more life but that will have more to do with Korean steal or German Siemens giving in and hedging Q3, Q4 etc than anything TLW does or says.

Who hasn't tried to glean some information from the ramblings of a rabid octogenarian blowhard who has gone bankrupt multiple times and yet gets to spout his nonsense on truth social without push back.

While then mocking draft for choosing a valid data point - sending kids into a war zone is not a good look. Not my favourite data point, but use what works for you.

By the way. When was the last time a tanker/cargo ship got his by an Iranian mine/drone. Whisper it, is the cease fire holding?

Forgot to mention, Shale patch has not noticeably increased drilling. Waiting for oil curve to move up as they need to finance off futures curve, bank lending is too expensive. So American Shale has a similar issue as Tullow (So Scott B may be solving our problem soon)

I was expecting a TACO. It's week 6-7 and so I guess I got that very badly wrong. Not the first time on this board.

So why are Rubio/Vance/Bessent not resigning. Well maybe ... maybe they have sort of signed up for this.

Trump election promises (Mara-lago-accord)

- 3% Budget Deficit: .

- 3% Economic Growth: .

- 3 Million Barrels of Oil Per Day

Well if the price of oil rises to $100-120 a barrel then America gets a 3% deficit by November (mid terms). May be sooner if European Gas prices shoots up (google Corpus Christi)

It's quite a simple plan. Trump claims he is the only one who actually got the deficit down!

Can't argue with the numbers. And he did that by bombing a country most Americans assume is the home of ISIS (I know its not but American's have a very binary view of the world).

Data centres are giving him the 3% growth-ish. The irony is the only one not holding up their end of the bargain is the oil drillers. They better get drilling or expect Tomahawk (or worse ICE officers) turning up for Sunday lunch at Texas Ranches.

It may sound ridiculous but it would explain why - so far - none of the three adults in the room have resigned over Iran. Cue three resignations on Sunday and TDDW looking very silly.

A high oil price, but not so high that it caused America to go into recession, would be insanely good for TLW - JMAX you know it would be true. One caveat is that they would need to pay down debt incredibly quickly as the long end of the curve must go up in this world (not entirely true but post for another board)

He's got six months to convince American's that he is actually doing Europe a favour. Be honest he will convince the average American in 2 months - saves the mid term, and JMAX will be telling us he always knew Trump would win.

Tullow management has done nothing to earn this winfall. Better to be lucky than right as I always say.

Yeah, its getting very meta (me and loon)

Sorry, If you haven't spotted from my total lack of knowledge of grammar that I'm a comprehensive boy. One of Thatchers Basildon children, if you will.

There is a mute button :-)

PS, who's read Tony's posts and who's read JMAX post. See what I mean.

Loon, could I suggest you don't worry about what someone else is saying (e.g. JMAX). You can only control yourself after all.

If you had to post on this board your name and address, would you post such aggressive messages? I would suggest not - so may be it is bullying?

JMAX wants to tear things down and splinter people. And you have become his "blunt instruments" number one (ref. Ian Fleming). I bet you his next post will be trying to rile you up again. Let's be gentlemen and see how the chips fall. Beautifully sunny in Essex. Need to get into the garden.

Loon, can we be less aggressive with our use of emoji. I meant these post to tweak JMAX's tail. Friendly joshing while we wait for numbers.

What ever you believe about trump the one thing he has shown is bullying shows a lack of class.

There's a recommend button. Could I suggest you click on the relevant post :-)

Votes for JMAX

I feel like mirror in Snow White.... I can tell I'm struck off the JMAX's Christmas list.

Look why doesn't everyone read Tony's posts... and because JMAX you have 3 posts just multiplied a few thousand times. I'll post them here for brevity

- Tullow is a Zombie

- Don't believe Tullow's Gas Blag

- Why hasn't Sam brought more shares (currently only 17%)

Let's use the wisdom of crowds to work this out. Vote for this post if Tony.

Vote for above post if JMAX.

I think it must be Tony

Xx

1 billion barrels of oil in the Sealion oil fields. It's all Oil and China :-)

Fewdollorsmore, I like to average down but never get into a position that causes you to loose sleep. Hopefully you can do some prudent trimming into a strong rally.

Tornadotony, There are better experts on this board than me but for quite sometime Tullow has been making various promises which they have not delivered on. Normally "buy on the rumour and sell on the news". This will be "buy a little on the news then a little more and then a little more still". The movement that would normally happen in a day or two will probably run over several weeks (see RKH for example). If Sam is struggling he might need to sell some into good news so there may also be a small overhang before it moves fast. Who knows

Sorry 52 week high :-). I see you don't want to engage with the argument. Which is reassuring. It so sunny in London. We are so blessed today.

Guys, on this board there seems to be some confusion on the current hedging strategy. Has anyone sent an email asking if it was changed as a result of the debt restructuring.

JMAX - I still stand by my other points.