Member Info for TDDW

@JMAX. According to Google Jeff Bezos has not brought any Amazon shares on the open market in 20 years. So Share price split adjusted was $1.84 and now 89,000. Does that mean Amazon has been a bad investment over the last 20 years.

I chose Jeff because I thought you might of heard of him and his company.

Sorry for being such a pedant .... I think there has been some limited flow of tankers throughthe straights - see Citrini's substack - great fun.

Selfishly, if Iraq restricts the oil enough to push the price up, but not to cause a global recession, I think that would be unambiguously good for TLW. Although this would take some time for it to reflect in the share price. The correct thing to do is the watch the Crude futures curve and ignore the spot price, irrespective of the hedging or not hedging.

@Tonyb33

"8. Another day has gone by the last tankers that left the Strait on Feb 28 2026 they travel about the speed of a man on a bicycle that’s 25 days to the Far East 40 Days to the USA and via Cape of Good Hope 40 days to Europe. Hence the Far East is blowing up because the tankers stopped two weeks ago, but for Europe and USA we are still unloading our last tankers. Iran by opening the Strait but by restricting the flow is playing for time. In four weeks time when Tullow is selling its next 1 m barrel tanker load at Platts Spot Brent you will be seeing $200 a barrel"

If Newtyn holds lots of oil stocks then they may be forced to cell due to concentration limits. Many trades have nothing to do with CNE

I'm just saying if one variable - Oil - moves, you should assume other variables move.

https://www.macrotrends.net/4997/uk-10-year-government-bond-yields

The first oil shock caused Gilts to double. 7% to 15% 1971 to 73. I assume businesses were borrowing 8% 1971 to 18% 1973 - just a guess.

One thing we can both agree on is that paying down debt is going to be very important. Squeezing extra barrels out of the ground very important. Countries realising that diversify their oil supplies is very important. I'm still very much a holder.

At some point. A cash rich acquirer can capture this value and the market is not stupid - makes sense for the Saudis to diversify by region (see Capricorn).

Tonyb33, great work. Agree with much ..... however "refinancing opportunity will come available at interest rates at least 30% lower."

I could see TLW become a better credit risk but the rates then move in response to oil stagflation, so that the debt refinancing is back to square one. As a shareholder I hope not but I'm not sure.

I also disagree with "This will force Mr Trump to send in ground troops".

His power base is MAGA (Probably 10% voters). As long as they back him then the Republican Congress cannot touch him. If MAGA want a proper ground war then they will get a proper ground war. Trumps true intelligence is he understands your average MAGA voter better than they can.

Anyway too many possible combinations with Trump. All combinations have higher oil prices but not all have higher interest rates!

MiHK, there are Gulf states that will be happy to buy the interceptors that Saudi currently needs off the Americans. They are not in option rich environ

I can see Hormuz oil coming back quickly. I can't see Ukraine stopping attacking Russian oil. Are we focusing on the wrong barrels being lost

I remember when rolls Royce hit 41p (split adjusted). :-)

Harbour and EnQuest have far more diversification. Might not be a fair comp.

HBR is investment grade. If it brought Tullow it could renegotiate debt from 17% to its 8% and probably extend the duration. I doubt it would impact their rating

HBR is still digesting its current acquisition from (BASF). But it did do a 200 million rights issue a fortnight ago which didn't make sense to me.... So did KOS.

I wonder why.

Oil is a global market and gas is a local market. If you can liquify gas it becomes global.

Any one got figures for Ghana's gas output? Suspect it's not enough to justify a terminal or the Chinese would have built it.

Low and quick infrastructure change would be to adjust the current pipework so gas could be exported (as well as imported) out of the country. Wouldn't quite get European prices, but would be closer to the global Gas Norms. My understanding is project would take less than 3 months.

I'd take a Chinese negotiated cease fire like a shot.

The true cost of Middle East and Russian crude is now obvious to all. Planners and countries will want a diversified oil and refining mix so that they don't put themselves in such an existential bind again. I wonder if they will build an Oil Refinery near Ten or else go for Jubilee. Any view JMAX?

Apologies if Ghana has invested in their pipe lines since last time I looked several years ago.

I think the real problem with the gas is ultimately there is no Gas connector into Nigeria (Ghana can consume but not send gas abroad).

So it won't really matter if Tullow can sell Gas or not. It's a captured market and won't get a good price.

The Ghanaian might have missed a trick here. You could see opportunist terrorist destroying gas infrastructure in Nigeria. Ghana could have potentially sold on gas, at a sizeable profit - allbeit at the detriment of their internal market. Too busy trying to screw KOS and TLW that they missed the opportunity to screw Nigeria.

Gulf 3 is about a month long now.

If you look at Tullow it's up 15% in that period. Energy companies that have benefited more (LSE only, in the 100 mill to 1 billion category and stock up 20% or more). Zenith, Pantheon, Gran Tierra, Afentra, Petrotal, Kosmo, Jadestone (and some of these are probably short covering rather than a vote of confidence).

After that, being up 10 or 15% is pretty normal. I comment because I have a lot of oil that should benefit from a closed straight of Hormuz and the move has been lack lusture.

Nothing in the price move would suggest the market is picking Tullow out to outperform the general Small Cap oil market. If you believe Tullow will out perform because of Tony's argument I would say it has not been priced in yet. Market don't buy it and is assuming someone is going to TACO

I'm happy to wait and see but my entry price and tolerance for risk allows me to. (Don't follow me I'm lost too)

Out of interest. Which oil stock is behaving as you would expect?

JMAX, if you can tell me how much leverage JDA has I can tell you if he should be buying more Tullow or he should be selling Tullow. You can buy the best asset in the world but if you have a margin call it's not going to help you. See Archegos.

As Warren Buffet says. When the tide comes out you find out who is swimming naked.

Draft, have you tried parking a Lambo in Asda. Pot holes everywhere and no boot room. I think you should have more sympathy for our Arab friends as their cars scrape on level 1 of the local car park.

Interestingly, I was talking to my Iraqi taxi driver and he was saying that the price of petrol was shooting up and he is really regretting the Lambo and was thing of swapping it for a Prius (Silver). Could Toyota be a buy!

JMAX it sounds clever saying, '200 dollars then you should buy tins of beans and guns' but I think that might be making a beginners mistake.

Yep, if oil goes from 100 to 200 in a week you could see some very serious consequences to the financial markets and then even BP and Shell will be a tough investment***. But even... even if banks go under ... your cash machine will work. You won't loose your money. You will just see a different name on the door of that bank (which was shutting its branch to become a trendy wine bar anyway). More of your bills will be for food and petrol. No money for holidays to Australia (You may get a cheap airB&B in Dubai if you book now)... Will I really take to the streets and overthrow the British government because this year I can't go to Ibiza. Probably stay in England and watch the World Cup and just be glad I'm not in a foreign bar where the locals say, 'I thought you were one of the favourites this year!' [The government can blame Trump for at least a year before we see societal fragmentation].

$100 to $200 in a month and the economy will reprice (I'm pretty sure Shell and BP will do OK). Very weak companies will go bankrupt but that just means the strong companies will have a bigger market share in 2027. There are so many wonderful technologies that make no sense now but make perfect sense at 200$. See Cambrian explosion in diversification away from oil. You have a supply chain that has gone through COVID so its battle hardened for these events. (I know it was a demand shock not a supply shock, etc etc. The point is prior experience)

There will be unlikely winners in this disastrous situation.... And here we come to Tullow.

Risk 1, Spot goes to 200 but 3 months out stays at 70$. (Tonybb3 thesis falls over and Tullow goes under, Glencore wins)

Risk 2, Ghana nationalises Tullow. (Very likely if oil goes 200 in 1 week, might get something in an arbitration court several years out)

Risk 3, Diluting rights issue or sail to friends and family (Could we have Trump Junior on the board - Just can't wait for that one)

Risk 4, Iran Military takes over and invites Disney to build Disney land in Terrane (Oil flows again and it turns out that the damage to the gas facility was far less than advertised )

It should be remembered

After the Iran Iraq War, Oil prices collapsed

After the Gulf War, Oil prices collapsed

Six months after Russia invaded Odessa, Oil prices collapsed

You need to have an idea of what price to sell Tullow.

Otherwise this is a no brainer (Or at least a hold in a well diversified portfolio)

*** If we have a Market Crash it does not mean you should not be buying more oil including Tullow at the bottom. Most of the weird price action can be explained as people selling some of their winners so that they have cash at the bottom

Tlw is influenced by the price of oil. Just not the spot price. It is also influenced by the Ten Year.

I posted on TLW and the Dow Jumped 2%. Trump will be pleased with me.

... There is also that nebulous no-chokepoint asset that arguably isn't fully priced into to TLW yet.

The historic CNE TLW merger would have been awful for CNE (benefit of hindsight). However, at or about this price I think a similar counterparty would make more mutual sense.

Obviously not CNE but may be Navitas. You wouldn't get the blow out top of 37p... Sorry 34p. But you might get a robust long term investment?