Member Info for TDDW

For every person who says, "Iran is a bunch of religious zealots who are prepared to do anything to stay in power". And then miss the point that Maga is a bunch of religious zealots who are prepared to do anything to stay in power. Right argument, wrong way round.

Surely the play is Korean shipyards. Drop off your oil and then get a few days scrubbing. Go back for some more oil. Rinse and repeat

Is it me or are a lot of the boats on vessel finder going over the mined area?

JMAX - don't knock it, peanut oil going up to. Ammonia shortage don't you know

Don't worry guys. I won't ever leave you. :-)

Francislingbtin - I remember buying Rockhopper for 5p a share. It was an absolute mess and was doing one more rights issue.

I understand the weakness of TLW but I would say it's in a far better place than RKH*. Can be frustrating when a trainer company becomes an AI company and roofs.

* COVID Was still going on and RKH looked like they were going to loose the Italian legal case (which ironically they eventually did). Oil was slowly recovering from a negative print.

Calm down guys. He has an unusual position. Can you honestly say every single one of your views are conventional, in all forums.

Just weight your opinions of his comments accordingly - apply a relevant haircut, and recognise view in the apropriate quarter.

We will find out how accurate these predictions are come April 28th. PS, even if predictions are wrong the process I think is important as it generates very relevant debate.

No accounting for taste

As I said. They have a different opportunity set. They could be building dry powder for a table we can't play at (or worse they have hidden wounds by being badly positioned going into this crisis). If they do buy the price will have moved and I will be too late.

Full year is planned for 28 Apr 2026. Then the closed period is over and we can find out what the insider really think. Although I'd like to know what the Glencore traders think (probably never going to find that out)

We are all guessing. The question is not if we are guessing but what guesses are in the price. If they have hedged aggressively then TLW is priced fairly and the loss is opportunity cost.

Yo87, The high debt is part of the beauty of Tullow. If that doesn't excite you then, yes maybe you should sell. We are creatures that hate a 50% drawdown more than we like a doubling in the share price. Apparently something to do with our Ancestors on the African planes - sorry Draft, getting technical.

Don't box yourself into this belief we are rational beings. Be your best self and all that and declutter your life of money worries.

Don't get sleepless nights over a share - unless it sleepless because you are so excited to wake up and find out what JMAX has to say. As we all know, If you don't have a JMAX on the board it probably not going to 10 bag any time soon.

Amazon was so much more a Zombie than Tullow in its day (SpaceX as well). We live in the here and now and so seldom learn from the sweep of history.

Just remember. If you had used that logic on Amazon when it was 5 dollars. You would have sounded really clever but been really wrong.

Again why not sell and write off against taxable gains. Sam seems to have interest in Gold miners which, I assume have done well recently?

Good Afternoon JMAX, conversely insiders haven't sold!

Do you have any information on what they have brought(sold) between now and the war starting. I joke about Premiership flats in Dubai but it would put this argument to rest.

I remember March-June Covid. I held lots of small bio stocks, and none of the owners brought stock in their companies - beyond vesting of options. Showed a total misreading of the market and its potential. The Managers were idiots, even the fraudulent ones. Apart from.a painful March dip it was easy money.

As always Tonyb33 has an excellent post. If you agree with his conclusion, before you buy any more TLW, sell all your portfolio in other stocks, liquidate gold and make sure you have no more than 100k in a bank (FCSC insurance /FDIC for Yanks); Oh and buy bog roll .

I'm tempted to add a little TLW and some more HBR but I don't think it has gone to the point of no return. If it did.... In a proper depression the terminal value of Tullow would drop, and yes it would be printing money, but that would not get well reflected in the stock price and sooner or later Ghana would nationalise TLW and KOS. Be careful what you wish for.

Scaffman, let's be honest. Mexico's gone awfully quiet on that one. Personally looking for an Avocado play not in the America's. Suply chain supply chain supply chain.

What does YWSML stand for? I curious

Antonvb "I'm wondering how long can the price of oil can be controlled by narrative".

It's not narrative. You are looking at the wrong prices. If it was just Narrative Sorros would come out of retirement and make a killing.

When you see a commodity price you need to ask yourself, not just what the commodity is but where you have to deliver the commodity; what the storage cost is; what the transportation cost. Once you model this most of the different prices for oil and plastic ... at the moment ... makes sense.

Due to arbitrage Forward prices very rarely represent expectation .... Or the expectation would be Arbritraged out