Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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NYSE and America is the way, this country is dragging itself down. Most people don't own shares unless in a pension and wealth is a dirty word.
Ed Milliband is proba ly the biggest threat to raised dividend
NYSE is obvious, but also Dax in Frankfurt wouldnt be a bad choice. Shell listed on LSE isn't the best fit post Brexit.
I normally drip my divis back into shares, but for some reason didn't last year. So my most recent purchase was in October 2022, at £22.68 per share. Since then 6 divis, totalling about £1.50, and the share price increased to today's £28.50, or roughly 25% gain. It's not bad, and I like the mixture of capital gain and income. The buybacks should also greatly increase eps, while saving a fortune in reduced payouts.
If the divi was increased back to 2019 levels, the screams of ersatz outrage from the likes of Rachel Reeves would be deafening.
Yep, certainly a matter of good housekeeping in that when it's politically expedient to increase the dividend, ie, when the economy is clearly robust, all we LTHs will see a meaningful benefit. However, I do understand the frustration of those who would prefer or need the cash up-front.
... absolutely Mrpippins, but some people need the income (cash) without having to sell up maybe?
I don’t see what the issue is with share buy backs for long term holders.
Shareholders get value through less liquidity in the market.
Change the listing to get shareholder value and use share buy back money to increase dividend
Sod buybacks for share price vanity, get the div back.
Never sell Shell!
Another vote for increase in divi rather than buybacks
Never sell Shell. No point commenting here as far as I’m concerned. I never worry about this one. It just does it’s thang.
A wonderful company to hold.
Just wish they would increase the cash dividend back to pre-Covid levels because they can easily afford it.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Has everyone sold shell???
Can we expect a dividend increase from shell on 2nd May???
Just read earnings call of Total Energies
There looking at possibilities of a NYSE listing too
Boyobach,
I am no fan of buybacks, they just muddy the figures. There is also the question of debt, which is also coming down too slowly.
Sawan can say that there is a valuation gap, however the dividend was cut, don't I know it, when I ended up buying more shares to get equivalent. Those like Exxon and Chevron did not so they deserve a higher valuation. We are still below the dividend before the cut several years down the line. I have been in this since 2015 so have enough experience with this company.
I have sold of 20% of my holding, so ready to sell more or buy back when the value is right for me.
Will they stop doing buybacks?
And how much cash have shareholder's missed out on since they cut the dividend?
For people who relied on that income it was quite a hit.
It's very difficult to assess the true value of buybacks to investors - is there a magic formula?
I think the theory is that an income investor should sell sufficient shares to top up the lost income and that the buybacks will maintain their overall value. I've never been convinced about that but could it be correct?
I don't think anyone picked up on this but it is an interesting question.
Current buyback is $3.5bn and there are just over 6.4bn shares (down from 8.3bn in July 2018). So the buyback is about $0.55 per share. Divi is $0.34 per share.
So if all money was distributed to shareholders as dividends, it would be about $0.89 per quarter, which is $3.56 per annum (or £2.85 at £1=$1.25) = about 10% of current share price
No wonder they think Shell is undervalued
Interesting thoughts Boyo. I am trying not to make my assumptions & targets particularly timebound this time, but I find it very difficult. Shell go Ex-Dividend on the 16th May, when I will be walking in Cumbria trying to pick up a phone signal no doubt! Obviously, if you buy back by then you qualify for the dividend, which as you say is a nice bonus. We are stuck with the Stamp Duty, which is roughly half the dividend on a similar level of purchase.
I am working on £28, as the high reached on the 18th October 2023, as being a rational view of where we should be now, without the conflict hype & spike above £29, which appears not to be sustainable without significant escalation in the Middle-East. Market reaction to Middle-East events seems to be almost spookily subdued at the moment. £27 or even £26 do look like realistic dips, but whether they will appear on the horizon before the 16th May remains to be seen. I really see this as negative bet territory, hoping for the share price to go down by a certain time, very weird. Ride the wave & good luck.
“3 UK oil stocks to invest in as Middle East tensions rise”
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/3-uk-oil-stocks-to-invest-in-as-middle-east-tensions-rise-3441443
I doubt it, Israel just flexing its muscles in response to Iranian attack on Israel. Iran would be totally destroyed by Israel, USA and NATO allies if Iran did anything to threaten Israel. JMO.
Israeli air strikes on Iran, this war is going to send oil centre stage again.
Typo correction:
I’ll be very happy indeed if I can match the annual dividend ....
Ha! the world is a mess GfG but it has always been so in the Middle East - effectively the middle of human conflict for millennia . If only God had managed his messengers a bit better and we'd all been on the same page eh?
Back to reality though: It’s interesting to see that, since 8th April, Shel’s sp ratio to OP has pushed upwards https://invst.ly/14g4d7 and Shel is now running quite hot in relation to it. I guess this might correct itself if Brent continues to drop back. I’m obviously assessing where my buyback target will be for the various tranches I’ve recently sold off as the price has risen. I reckon that today’s sp is about 175 above what it would have been at the same OP a month ago and I do think I’d start getting interested at about 2600 - a £3 per share gain on the last tranche I sold. I’ll be very happy indeed if match the annual dividend on half of my Shel from trading it within a single quarter - especially if I also get the divi too!! ATB
Boyo,
Good morning - the chart says it all really & it is interesting to note that you are largely out of Shell at the moment. Shell does seem to have reached a bit of a plateau, after a really strong run, but all runs run out of steam at some point!
I was looking at waiting to hear the announcement of the First Quarter results on the 2nd May, but wasn't sure how the market would take the Shell statement on Gas "Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be strong, but significantly lower than an exceptional Q4’23." Particularly when the shares are already relatively high anyway.
The Sword of Damocles is hanging over the upward travel of the OP at the moment which looks to be based on the extent and severity of the Israeli response to Iran. Surrounded by enemies that have sworn its destruction Israel has absolutely no choice other than to respond aggressively. The US already distancing itself from any response, may leave a strong likelihood that Iranian nuclear facilities may be targeted. Its a worrying World we live in.
When as one example, Biden apparently wants Ukraine to ease up on Russian refinery attacks due to the sensitivity of gas prices in an election year, there are not just an awful lot of Geopolitical influences on the Oil markets, but Geo-Economic & political influences.