Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Boyo - are you quiet, because we've gone off the chart!
Have held a lot of these for a long long time now as one of my main core holdings, average £12.52. but getting very tempted for only the second time ever to sell a few thousand. £29 is a cracking price.
Glass ceiling to be smashed today? GLA
Certainly it is a strong warning shot from Sawan, which is what the LSE needs.
Like many I have a lot of pride in the LSE & the status it has achieved over the years, but the reality is that post-Brexit, it is incrementally losing & has arguably been overtaken in Europe, and is slowly being marginalised in numerous measurable areas with the fierce competition from the US and increasingly the Far-East.
I don't think Sawan has any axe to grind, but he may actually believe that achieving value for oil companies might be better served by having one main world exchange containing the majority of major oil companies. Maybe this would go some way to counter-balancing OPEC's domination of the markets.
I am worried about the prospective demise of the LSE, but I really want to see them fight back, rather than gradually disappear without a whimper!
Boyo - it is going to be really interesting to find out whether we are looking at a glass ceiling, or even more than one of them if £29 shatters - will some of us then be Shell-Shocked!
It’s nice to see a good strong Close today nearer the new 52 weeks high 2873 made today, after a hotter than expected US inflation figures drove all the indexes into the red earlier.
Boyo - I have to admit I was starting to need an injection of common sense from the resident Welsh Chart Wizard. Against my better judgement I was starting to think ceiling what ceiling! Like you taking gains I was actually considering bailing out, until Wael Sawan started singing New York, New York!
I know that it will make your day to know that I have modified my view on buy-backs prospectively being the absolute Holy Grail. I accept that we have to ween ourselves off fossil fuels, if we have time, albeit with peak oil production day being some years away yet, and zero fossil fuel day being maybe 50 or 60 years away, or never! I really see buy-backs now as being essential in incrementally supporting the SP in an inevitably declining market place, but also as Sawan says he sees them as a great investment in an undervalued company.
What changed my view was largely down to thinking about Shell's decision to divest 500 of their filling stations a year over the next two years. On the face of it pretty significant stuff. Until you think that Shell has 12,500 filling stations so that at this rate of attrition it will take 25-years for Shell to divest all of its fossil fuel filling stations - which takes it to around 2050. So maybe Shell has realistically modelled, and is definitely planning for, zero fossil fuel day as being 25-years away and counting.
As an aside, I recently bought some more shares in Deltic Energy. Shell is Deltic's big-brother partner in the North Sea Pensacola and Selene fields. Selene was recently farmed out to include Dana as an additional new partner in the project, but leaving Deltic with a 25% share of any commercially recoverable oil after covering all drilling costs. A risky, but interesting play. Deltic's 2023 Final Results should be out on Thursday the 18th April with update announcements presumably.
Hard to argue against that!
I think we would all prefer to have the higher dividends than the buybacks.
Interesting comments in this thread - including a reminder of the dividend cut and the swing to buybacks (GaFG knows my views on that issue). I've been steadily taking profits here as the sp moves towards a potential ceiling but I'm reluctant to close out completely below 3000. Here is Shel 's sp against XOM and CVX since late 2019, prior to the divi cut: https://invst.ly/14c2v7
Hi Ggp a follow up to your article yesterday from Ben van Beurden today.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Former-Shell-CEO-Says-New-York-Stock-Exchange-Benefits-Oil-Firms.html
Hi Ggp I concur about Sawan’s tenure and I liked his approach and leadership skills and focus in the company especially after watching the Q3 update during Q&A sessions with the analysts as per my post on 02/11/2023. And I think the share price will move up if those actions are fruitful, that is excluding any unforeseen catalyst that could derail everything imho.
I also agree he is trying to close the gap with US peers or even the takeover you’ve mentioned, I just founded a bit funny about the dividend cut being left out because I sure a lot of institutional investors who can move a SP like the income funds must have sold it after the cut and moved the money elsewhere with better returns.
If they restore the dividend completely the share price will fix it self as people will chase the yield, simple fix, but apparently multi-millionaire CEO's can't see that...
Hi1 Larry - really good to read your take on things. I may well use your description of "selective bias" at some point, or "selective memory," at least. A big buddy from school was an MP for almost 25-years so my views are aligned with yours on the listening skills of Governments.
I think when we look back on Sawan's tenure at Shell he will be seen as a master-strategist. As Shell knows super-tankers are very difficult to turn around, but for me he is doing an excellent job and relatively speaking, at pace. If anyone is in any doubt on this try discussing the topic with a BP shareholder.
Certainly Sawan is trying to raise Shell's SP, and close the gap, by stating that New York might be on the radar. But he is also demonstrating that Shell will not passively accept being a pawn for the soon to be electioneering parties in the UK. For me he might even be trying to boost the share-price as a prelude to a hostile takeover attempt. Maybe he is thinking along the lines of following the current fashion of buying a US oil company & attempting to mitigate any regulatory hurdles with a bit of hearts and minds strategy. Maybe he is indirectly trying to highlight some of BP's comparative weaknesses, with a view to a possible merger or takeover.
Exciting stuff though, to balance against yet another rainy UK day.
Buy Backs up to 01/05/24 $3.5 B
Anyone have an idea of when the buybacks will be done?
Times comment:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4d3e46c6-fe3a-419e-b910-921f7ce02d40?shareToken=4ae14fddf3bc95137c224743bfd1c241
Hi Ggp thank you for the article and good point about the companies and governments, but would politicians listen I doubt it. It’s funny tho how the CEO is quick to complain about the lagging SP compare to US companies but never once mentions how US companies never cut the dividend during Covid where as Shell and BP took advantage to rebased it to suit them. Is all about selective bias really, but onwards and upwards and may SP carries on and let’s see what Q1 holds on 2nd of May after last Friday trading update and BP’s update today.
Thank you for confirming! do you think the price is suppressed due the dividend not being restored to pre covid levels?
As a PI in Shell for more years than i'd like to admit to I'm happy for it to move to NYSE. They should have done it years ago.
You wouldn't lose anything. So absolutely no need to worry.
If it happened (and it's a long way off) you would get shares in the US listed group. Of course, you would also have the option to sell while Shell was still listed in the UK.
Shell is ridiculously undervalued compared to Exxon and Chevron. We should be nearer £40. So I think a US move makes a lot of long term sense. Also, it would protect Shell from the ESG nutters.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
What happens if Shell leave the FTSE? will i lose all my money??
Based on the current number of shares in the market, the share price would have to go up about 30% to reach the market cap of about 6 years ago.
Market cap is still way below the level of about 6 years ago