Boyo,
Good morning - the chart says it all really & it is interesting to note that you are largely out of Shell at the moment. Shell does seem to have reached a bit of a plateau, after a really strong run, but all runs run out of steam at some point!
I was looking at waiting to hear the announcement of the First Quarter results on the 2nd May, but wasn't sure how the market would take the Shell statement on Gas "Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be strong, but significantly lower than an exceptional Q4’23." Particularly when the shares are already relatively high anyway.
The Sword of Damocles is hanging over the upward travel of the OP at the moment which looks to be based on the extent and severity of the Israeli response to Iran. Surrounded by enemies that have sworn its destruction Israel has absolutely no choice other than to respond aggressively. The US already distancing itself from any response, may leave a strong likelihood that Iranian nuclear facilities may be targeted. Its a worrying World we live in.
When as one example, Biden apparently wants Ukraine to ease up on Russian refinery attacks due to the sensitivity of gas prices in an election year, there are not just an awful lot of Geopolitical influences on the Oil markets, but Geo-Economic & political influences.
Cheers Larry - I completely agree. Sold at £28.33p & well ahead since I had last sold. This time sold partly due to fear of losing the "conflict" premium balanced with confidence that £28 is a good SP. Judgementally, my timing could have been better, but looking back certainly a block of 6000 were bought at £8.92p on the 27th October 2020, although there have been quite a number of buys and sells since then. I will most likely buy back in, but intend not to do so particularly quickly. I was sorely tempted to wait for the SP movement when Israel inevitably hits back at the Iranians.
Clued - apologies cut short - it is worth also checking out the general dynamics of lifetime gifts, Really horses for courses, but worth evaluating the various options that might work for individuals in my view.
Clued - probably the best initial advice on the different types of Trusts can be found on the Government website, as everyone's circumstances are different. Essentially, I have a will that details placing funds into a Trust, but until those funds actually land in a Trust I incur no costs. My understanding is that income above a certain level, or a capital disposal would be subject to tax, but individuals need to check the costs and tax situation for themselves.
PG - LA is consistently stating what he was months ago when this subject came up previously. You can trust what he says.
Think about it - Isa's were introduced a quarter of a century ago. Initially you could pay £7000 per annum into them. now this is £20,000. With a little luck on your investments, and the effects of compounding, it is well documented that ISA millionaires exist!
As of a few minutes before the close of play today I no longer hold a single Shell share & have no tax liability on the sale! As LA rightly states there are numerous other Tax shelters including SIPPs. I am lucky enough to own several properties. Unless I am unlucky and have to sell one or all of them, I will not pay capital gains tax on them in my lifetime, but my children will inherit them in a Trust as a tax shelter that will last for 60-years!
My advice is "those who fail to plan, are actually planning to fail!"
Oh! Well! - hit the trades chart 2 minutes 14 seconds before the close of play today! Lets see where the results, and more importantly the announcements, take us!
Quoted from the Deltic Website:
Deltic Energy Plc is an AIM-listed natural resources investing company which has invested in a number of offshore oil & gas assets in the UK and is focused on realising the additional exploration potential of this proven hydrocarbon province.
Excellent Strategic Market View
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Javier-Blas-10-Things-Oil-Traders-Need-to-Know-About-Irans-Attack-on-Israel.html
HKK - I stated "left Darktrace in the Doldrums drifting down 2.8p" i.e. indicating it was left where it had been previously. In terms of clarification I was not inferring in any way that a fall of 2.8p put Darktrace in the Doldrums!
This deflects from the point which is that a substantial re-rating by Jeffries had no discernible impact on the Darktrace SP! Darktrace needs to show evidence of a significant growth in customer numbers i.e. more than 12.9% recently reported or it may be seen as having gone ex-growth, which may be why it is persistently so dismally rated almost universally apart from on this thread!
The issue is that this dramatic "rerating" was met with the complete indifference of the market, which left Darktrace in the Doldrums drifting down 2.8p. If Darktrace had announced a significant increase in new customer numbers, the impact on the market would have been much different.
Larry - Yes, a fantastic problem to have, but commodity prices have a habit of derailing what with hindsight we might view as irrational exuberance or groundless optimism! Certainly the dramatic 92p boost to the SP when the IDF destroyed the Iranian Consulate in Damascus was difficult to foresee, but some event or other was likely to inflame the situation & threaten a dramatic widening & escalation of the Gaza conflict.
Now the extent and depth of the Iranian response is part of the calculation. In the background can the US afford Iran to become a nuclear power, especially when it has sworn the destruction of Israel - No! £29 is rarefied air territory as you say, £30 is appearing on the radar. Interest rates not coming down as quickly as they might have, with the stubborn US jobs boom continuing, ongoing property company issues in China etc. Certainly a time to recalibrate what you think is possible or likely!
In general - Pre-emption rights (if they exist) give the shareholders of a company first refusal to purchase any new or existing shares that become available. These rights are designed to protect the interests of shareholders and limit the ability of third parties to hold shares in a company.
A lot depends on the directors view of fairness and equal treatment for all shareholders, say whilst being pressed by the urgency of raising funds, which are technically for the good of the company and therefore all shareholders.
TT - I completely agree with you. Companies have to go with what they have publicly stated, unless someone moves the goalposts.
The Selene deal was brilliant & was stated as transformational. Why would Deltic consider anything but a farm-out at the moment.
This is Swindell's area of expertise, he will be in his element. There will be a queue of companies wanting to get involved & all Deltic has to do is have a beauty parade and pick the most promising deal. With the template of the Selene deal Pensacola will most likely follow some of the major guidelines that have already been set.
US shareholders can hold Shell shares - American Depository Shares (ADS) facility:
Shell plc has an American Depositary Share (ADS) facility managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Each ADS is equivalent to two Shell ordinary shares.
Certainly it is a strong warning shot from Sawan, which is what the LSE needs.
Like many I have a lot of pride in the LSE & the status it has achieved over the years, but the reality is that post-Brexit, it is incrementally losing & has arguably been overtaken in Europe, and is slowly being marginalised in numerous measurable areas with the fierce competition from the US and increasingly the Far-East.
I don't think Sawan has any axe to grind, but he may actually believe that achieving value for oil companies might be better served by having one main world exchange containing the majority of major oil companies. Maybe this would go some way to counter-balancing OPEC's domination of the markets.
I am worried about the prospective demise of the LSE, but I really want to see them fight back, rather than gradually disappear without a whimper!
Boyo - I have to admit I was starting to need an injection of common sense from the resident Welsh Chart Wizard. Against my better judgement I was starting to think ceiling what ceiling! Like you taking gains I was actually considering bailing out, until Wael Sawan started singing New York, New York!
I know that it will make your day to know that I have modified my view on buy-backs prospectively being the absolute Holy Grail. I accept that we have to ween ourselves off fossil fuels, if we have time, albeit with peak oil production day being some years away yet, and zero fossil fuel day being maybe 50 or 60 years away, or never! I really see buy-backs now as being essential in incrementally supporting the SP in an inevitably declining market place, but also as Sawan says he sees them as a great investment in an undervalued company.
What changed my view was largely down to thinking about Shell's decision to divest 500 of their filling stations a year over the next two years. On the face of it pretty significant stuff. Until you think that Shell has 12,500 filling stations so that at this rate of attrition it will take 25-years for Shell to divest all of its fossil fuel filling stations - which takes it to around 2050. So maybe Shell has realistically modelled, and is definitely planning for, zero fossil fuel day as being 25-years away and counting.
As an aside, I recently bought some more shares in Deltic Energy. Shell is Deltic's big-brother partner in the North Sea Pensacola and Selene fields. Selene was recently farmed out to include Dana as an additional new partner in the project, but leaving Deltic with a 25% share of any commercially recoverable oil after covering all drilling costs. A risky, but interesting play. Deltic's 2023 Final Results should be out on Thursday the 18th April with update announcements presumably.