Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
TT - I completely agree with you. Companies have to go with what they have publicly stated, unless someone moves the goalposts.
The Selene deal was brilliant & was stated as transformational. Why would Deltic consider anything but a farm-out at the moment.
This is Swindell's area of expertise, he will be in his element. There will be a queue of companies wanting to get involved & all Deltic has to do is have a beauty parade and pick the most promising deal. With the template of the Selene deal Pensacola will most likely follow some of the major guidelines that have already been set.
US shareholders can hold Shell shares - American Depository Shares (ADS) facility:
Shell plc has an American Depositary Share (ADS) facility managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Each ADS is equivalent to two Shell ordinary shares.
Certainly it is a strong warning shot from Sawan, which is what the LSE needs.
Like many I have a lot of pride in the LSE & the status it has achieved over the years, but the reality is that post-Brexit, it is incrementally losing & has arguably been overtaken in Europe, and is slowly being marginalised in numerous measurable areas with the fierce competition from the US and increasingly the Far-East.
I don't think Sawan has any axe to grind, but he may actually believe that achieving value for oil companies might be better served by having one main world exchange containing the majority of major oil companies. Maybe this would go some way to counter-balancing OPEC's domination of the markets.
I am worried about the prospective demise of the LSE, but I really want to see them fight back, rather than gradually disappear without a whimper!
Boyo - I have to admit I was starting to need an injection of common sense from the resident Welsh Chart Wizard. Against my better judgement I was starting to think ceiling what ceiling! Like you taking gains I was actually considering bailing out, until Wael Sawan started singing New York, New York!
I know that it will make your day to know that I have modified my view on buy-backs prospectively being the absolute Holy Grail. I accept that we have to ween ourselves off fossil fuels, if we have time, albeit with peak oil production day being some years away yet, and zero fossil fuel day being maybe 50 or 60 years away, or never! I really see buy-backs now as being essential in incrementally supporting the SP in an inevitably declining market place, but also as Sawan says he sees them as a great investment in an undervalued company.
What changed my view was largely down to thinking about Shell's decision to divest 500 of their filling stations a year over the next two years. On the face of it pretty significant stuff. Until you think that Shell has 12,500 filling stations so that at this rate of attrition it will take 25-years for Shell to divest all of its fossil fuel filling stations - which takes it to around 2050. So maybe Shell has realistically modelled, and is definitely planning for, zero fossil fuel day as being 25-years away and counting.
As an aside, I recently bought some more shares in Deltic Energy. Shell is Deltic's big-brother partner in the North Sea Pensacola and Selene fields. Selene was recently farmed out to include Dana as an additional new partner in the project, but leaving Deltic with a 25% share of any commercially recoverable oil after covering all drilling costs. A risky, but interesting play. Deltic's 2023 Final Results should be out on Thursday the 18th April with update announcements presumably.
Deltic Energy's Final Results for the year-ending the 31st December 2022, were released on Thursday the 20th April 2023.
That makes it most likely that the Final Results for the year-ending the 31st December 2023 will be released next Thursday the 18th April 2024, and possibly before the market opens. So the build up in the share price is largely anticipating some big announcements that will start to fulfil almost "everyone's" expectations!
Hi1 Larry - really good to read your take on things. I may well use your description of "selective bias" at some point, or "selective memory," at least. A big buddy from school was an MP for almost 25-years so my views are aligned with yours on the listening skills of Governments.
I think when we look back on Sawan's tenure at Shell he will be seen as a master-strategist. As Shell knows super-tankers are very difficult to turn around, but for me he is doing an excellent job and relatively speaking, at pace. If anyone is in any doubt on this try discussing the topic with a BP shareholder.
Certainly Sawan is trying to raise Shell's SP, and close the gap, by stating that New York might be on the radar. But he is also demonstrating that Shell will not passively accept being a pawn for the soon to be electioneering parties in the UK. For me he might even be trying to boost the share-price as a prelude to a hostile takeover attempt. Maybe he is thinking along the lines of following the current fashion of buying a US oil company & attempting to mitigate any regulatory hurdles with a bit of hearts and minds strategy. Maybe he is indirectly trying to highlight some of BP's comparative weaknesses, with a view to a possible merger or takeover.
Exciting stuff though, to balance against yet another rainy UK day.
ST:
I couldn't agree more. Wael Sawan's statements- I think it is more than just an early warning, but big companies can direct Governments, particularly with elections in the offing;
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-threatens-quit-london-york-111116631.html
Wael Sawan - I think it is more than just an early warning, but big companies can direct Governments, particularly with elections in the offing;
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-threatens-quit-london-york-111116631.html
L - good to hear your views. I actually took the £27.27p from Yahoo & had been using it for a while so thanks for pointing this out as it is some distance of the mark.
The FT is very close to your figure:
On Tuesday, Shell PLC (SHEL:LSE) closed at 2,647.00, -5.50% below its 52-week high of 2,801.00, set on Oct 18, 2023.
Oops! premature posting!
Although, I have been massively influenced by Jim Slater's "Zulu Principle" over the years. His argument was essentially why diversify in to inferior shares that you know less about, when you know all there is to know about the Zulu, or in this case Shell. Occasionally I have, some years ago, actually only held one share, but generally have no fear of not conforming with the general sense & pressure to diversify, and just instead holding one major share without any fear of doing so.
With a trading view I have been targeting an SP around £27.27p, which was the high reached on the 16th October 2023. I agree with you it could go a bit higher, but its a nice problem to juggle with.
Your views on BP made me smile. Having half decided to build up a holding partly funded by dividends from Shell, I am thoroughly underwhelmed & demoralised by them. I bought around £4.70p so I am ahead, but that is all I can say. BP is still paying for a skeleton in the cupboard (not trying to be funny) with the Deepwater Horizon disaster, it seems to have built up a pigs breakfast of assorted renewables which seem to be more of an almost random collection rather than benefitting from any compellingly focused strategy, it took them months to select a CEO, & I really don't think there is any major change of direction imminent.
A break above the red line looks imminent. There seems to be a lot of pent up impetus behind the SP at the moment - a whole list of positives & closing it in on its high.
Certainly my mindset is switching to attempting to pick the top of the SP travel & trading, but there looks to be plenty of time yet. The next few months leading up to the Elections here and in the US, should see a series of interest rate reductions, a lessening of the pressure on consumers, reducing inflation, countries leaving recessionary impacts behind them & burning more black gold, we might even start to forget the Truss debacle - just joking!
After the elections we might even see a bursting of the AI/Nvidia bubble & big Stock-market corrections! Great to see you posting again Boyo. Remember a graph in time saves nine!
L - Don't worry I am well aware that there is currently no bottom line profitability. I intended this to be the next stage of a discussion with JWB.
Once the credit squeeze, cost of living crisis, etc ease I think there will be a clearer picture emerging of the likely winners in this space, certainly the growth rate will improve dramatically, as I think it will with Darktrace. Although, the growth in yearly customer numbers of 12.9% at Darktrace has me agreeing with you on the relatively pedestrian growth.
Both are really side-bets from my main investments, along with quite a number of Techs in the US. So a hit and miss scenario is predictably expected.
It is generally agreed that Deliveroo has a Market Capitalisation of £1.89 billion, with core earnings of £85 million from the last announced results.
Could you explain how you have managed to come up with a PE Ratio of 82!
FT view on effects of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries on OP:
https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c
FT view on effects of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries on OP:
https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c
The recent SP dynamics & movements seem to me to follow a very similar pattern to when the SP was around 20p about the time of the announcement of the Selene deal. Because valuations & prospects have moved on dramatically since then though, the SP movements are around a base of 30p rather than the previous 20p.
US Gasoline Prices rising:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rising-Gasoline-Prices-Bring-Bad-News-for-Biden.html