Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Good morning Larry - As you say a full two weeks ahead of the results, it would pay for us to buy some oxygen bottles as we might be passing them around very soon at this rarefied altitude! A nice problem to have though!
Looks like we are in the middle of a fundamental re-calibration of the share price. Debt has been repeatedly cut, buy-backs are starting to bite as they had to (many shares have been bought back at much lower prices), Shell is becoming much more sharply focused on high-profit areas (LNG etc Sawan has a Quatari gas background), the dividend has been rising significantly (although not yet reaching pre-cut levels), overall the company is being completely re-designed strategically - out has gone the Home Energy business, out will go renewables that are not making a sufficient contribution to the bottom line.
We are due for another great Qtr with the average oil and gas prices at decent levels & FCF will no doubt be at "we should be ashamed of ourselves levels."
There are already significantly less shares issued that the dividend is payable on, the higher share-price reduces the yield per share, and it is highly likely that there will be another significant hike in the dividend announced with the 3rd quarter results. The market is pretty well dictating this.
There are a lot of dynamics behind the persistently rising SP, not least of which is re-focusing on oil and gas to close the gap with US companies. Selling the Permian Basin assets did not make altogether sound business sense for me, but it will if it is seen to be a strategic move enabling a smoother path to a successful bid for BP or a big US rival. Not enough credit is going to Wael Sawan - the great CEO's of great companies are often defined by history in relation to a great transformational takeover! Watch this space -it will happen!
DP Yes, without doubt it is a painful process.
There will obviously be some tough "who blinks first negotiations" taking place. As discussed Deltic urgently needs to confirm funding, but this will become more desperate as time runs down. Lenders have the money, but the purse strings are tighter as the credit squeeze bites, and essentially everyone has their eyes on the prize when initially Pensacola and then hopefully Selene come on stream.
Depending how long they secure funding for, I think these will be the most critical funding negotiations of all. Lenders will be heavy on the fact that interest rates are relatively high at the moment, but Western Governments are committed to reducing them as soon as they can without seismic shocks to the bond market. They will be interesting negotiations but business in confidence until something is signed off.
I had no intention of buying any further shares, but they have fallen a third from the 31p I bought the shares at, and I am wavering a bit!
LTI - my assessment is pretty well the same figures as yours. I had actually never held shares in Shell until 2020, and what this discussion highlights for me is the need to think more about events, share price, market cap etc prior to 2020, so I certainly need to widen my focus.
One of the lynch-pins for me was the staggering record of holding the same dividend level since the end of the 2nd World War. I actually bought Shell due to the halving of its dividend and plummeting share price, believing that oil would be one of the shares to lead us out of the panicdemic!
I feel that there is much further to go & thanks again.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/16/ftse-100-markets-news-uk-economy-live-inflation-oil-gaza/
LTI - Many thanks & apologies for the late reply - Statista appear to be very close to the Stock Analysis figures:
"In September of 2018, Royal Dutch Shell saw it's highest market capitalization value recorded at over 220.8 billion British pounds. The company has been particularly hit during the global Covid-19 pandemic with its market value almost halving between December 2019 and May 2020."
Using the average dollar exchange rate from our Government's website I get to within $6 billion of the $300 billion Stock Analysis figure. A really useful figure to know now you have verified it.
I completely agree on the companiesmarketcap.com content. It was a bit of a random instance rather than exemplar, but i completely agree, some of the content is miles out and difficult to rationalise why. With any statistics there should only ever be a single version of the truth and I would also go with $300 billion being in the ballpark for the maximum capitalisation. The good news is that there is quite a way to go for us as shareholders.
LTI - Might be one to check. Please see the following link:
https://companiesmarketcap.com/shell/marketcap/
Dead right - I literally glanced through them & nothing whatsoever shouted at me. The reality is they only become important in any way when an event manifests itself that might breach them. Even a company secretary will only carry the most important exerts or statutory regulations in their head. The rest is generally padded verbiage that is readily available.
Deltic has just copied out what Algy Clough's had stated as Articles of Association, but it is really remiss not to change every reference to "Deltic" only. As I said it is sheer idleness on the part of Deltic. But, they are an oil exploration and exploitation vehicle, in fairness brownie points for excellence and accuracy of Articles of association will not find and exploit oil reserves in the North Sea.
Templates of Articles of Association are so easy to access as well:
Model articles for private companies limited by shares
If you buy a limited company name through say Company formations on the Internet, they include pro forma Articles of association & if memory serves me rightly from me last using their service it cost £9.99p.
ADG67 - It is absolutely fundamental to understanding the current share price relatively to previous years, particularly when the number of shares in issue has changed so radically over recent years. You should post more often - don't keep it to yourself!
It is not continuity at all merely laziness on behalf of the Company Secretary. Generally Articles Of Association follow legal & regulatory norms & in terms of substance and scope there is little difference between many of them. Look through them and tell me where they are different from the norm!
FD - I only really skimmed over them, certainly no %s' leapt out at me. Articles of Association are a great read if you are having trouble sleeping- believe me I have almost slept through a number of Law of Meetings lectures in the past.
If something comes up that is relevant, they will be analysed to death & then we will be presented with the relevant bones that we actually need to know. The agreement with Shell over Pensacola is likely to be completely watertight - Shell has a significant in-house legal team. Shell will not be considering that Deltic will suddenly decide to risk everything of its 30% holding on a flight of fancy. Why risk what is currently its only copper-bottomed revenue earner, by suddenly going private at a rock-bottom price - if shell is concerned and wanted Pensacola to itself Deltic is literally small change. But, why change a winning team!
Moniman - I can fully understand and sympathise with your view. This evening when I crack open an expensive bottle or two of champagne, my thoughts will be of the illiterate, exploited, peasants tending the fields and the pre-pubescent girls trafficked from the Third World to tread the grapes barefoot for my gratification. But, I am an optimist, and I know that if I don't get some champagne down me they will not have a job at all! Cheers!
The Articles of Association were adopted by Deltic Energy in their entirety from CLUFF NATURAL RESOURCES PLC on the 19 April 2012. This is simply laziness in not being bothered to change a document title, but they may rectify this. Its something to bear in mind, but if Shell is not concerned, neither am I. Have a great weekend.
The company secretary should let you have a copy of the Articles of association. I think the jury will be out on whether there is a copy on the website, but there should be. If you end up checking with the company secretary a good question would be "are you asked for these very often," "are you going to put them on the website" if you catch them off guard you might get an interesting answer!
Sorry "on standard," should read "non-standard."
DP - commercially exploitable proven oil reserves will reward the directors & shareholders alike. Deltic's new found riches will be tempting for a predator, but above anything it is a relationship that works for Shell, so why change it. Part of Shell's agreement to domicile in the UK was based on them agreeing to play their part in opening up North Sea exploration & production .
The relationship with Deltic is perfect for them. Shell is also currently scrutinising every aspect of its business to focus on oil and gas that will potentially return great ROI. If Deltic pass scrutiny it will be the green light that they see Deltic as providing significant returns.
Rather than taking what Darktrace say I.e. that customer numbers show a rise of 15 per cent year on year. Why not look at 126 as a percentage of the stated customer base of 9000! Do you feel that this is a number that also can't be bad, or do you think it is indicative of a very significant slow down in on-take of new customers. Why don't you compare the 126 to the previous 3-months increase!
If Darktrace employs two-thirds of its staff on marketing and sales, what do you think the cost of customer acquisition looks like - do you even feel it is relevant? How does this compare with Sentinelone, Palo Alto, Crowdcube etc. Those who do know the answers to such rudimentary analysis have tethered the share-price this low as it seems to some!
As I recall, I think you can also get the case where those wanting to take the company private secure over 50% of the voting shareholders, but cannot achieve 75% of the vote. So that in some cases more than half the voting shareholders have wanted to go private, and the company has then I believe agreed to reduce the 75% hurdle to break the impasse.
If the company wants to decide on whether it can delist & go private. The most likely scenario is that the Board call an Extraordinary General Meeting, which is out of Sync with the normal scheduling of the AGM. They will declare it as being in relation to voting on going private through a Special Resolution.
Going private might normally require a 75% majority vote, but this wholly depends on statements in the Articles of Association of the company. One of the residual legacies from Algy Clough might be " on-standard" Articles of Association.
Good to take a gain guys.
Personally I think there is more to play for with Shell certainly in the short-term. Oil will more likely spike to near its peak for now with the Israeli invasion of Gaza. The protracted process of "eradicating" Hamas is unlikely to lower tensions or the OP. The sledgehammer blow by the Israelis has already started with their air-force being sent in, then massed columns of tanks with infantry support, then very lengthy occupation to subdue Hamas!
The US is considering halting $6 billion that was heading to Iran:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shift-In-US-Policy-On-Iran-Oil-Could-Swing-Global-Markets.html
The OP will be influenced by the scope & severity of the Israeli invasion, which will be a massive provocation to Iran, so their reaction is also an important part of the equation.