Member Info for getafgrip

Good to hear from you Larry. Everyone seems to be quietly content with Wael Sawan's progress. The sign of an outstanding CEO when investors can relax & let them bear the burden.

Shell SP down a couple of pence, extension of Middle-east conflict in intensity & soon geographical scope, whilst Brent up 1.5%.

But, one of the fundamentals of the US political scene is the need for cheap gas coming into the US Election. So, the US is maximising output from the Permian, pressurising refinery margins, pressurising major producers in the Middle-east, and other key players and allies, also playing a game with the SPR etc.

The lag effect takes away any immediate impact from the US interest rate cut, Chinese reflationary input etc. A continuation of the supply side cuts by some OPEC members is helping to stabilise the OP rather than alone make it spike upwards, but these are the first indications of better times ahead for the oil market. There should be more sense and logic, returning to the oil market once recessionary concerns dim and once the US Election is behind us.

Https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/21/europe/bayesian-yacht-watertight-safes-intl/index.html

It looks like Mike Lynch's 2 x "hyper/super" encrypted hard-drives" are seen as critical to national security, after the sale of Darktrace to the rather opaque & secretive private US company Thoma Bravo.

The final regulatory hurdle to clear for the sale of Darktrace to the US deemed that there were NO issues of national security to address!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/bayesian-superyacht-sinking-mike-lynch-tycoon-latest-news-b2616659.html?page=2

A gift of say £1m, to a "safe haven" family member such as a brother, is simply one avenue of prudent management of an individuals capital. The Inland Revenue will presumably treat it as a "Lifetime Gift" and tax free if Poppy lives beyond 7-years from the date of the gift.

The Russian State gets more bangs for its roubles with the dividend!

The suppression of oil prices prior to the US election will reach its conclusion soon. The solution for recessionary concerns, and ensuring that the US economy is bubbling along nicely for the election will be the usual cliched one - pumping funds and liquidity into the US economy.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Net-Short-For-First-Time-in-History.html

No news is no news!

Note the current impact on slow-movers like BP:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-cashes-clean-fuel-230000197.html

Lurka - The W8Ben forms are easily obtained on the Internet and certainly any broker should provide them. Originally I had a few problems with completing the W8Ben correctly, due to interpreting the phraseology used. But now instructions for completion are readily available - the following is courtesy of AJ Bell:

https://www.ajbell.co.uk/sites/default/files/useful-forms/AJBYI_Guidelines_for_completion_of_Form_W-8BEN.pdf

IRS site W8Ben form:

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/fw8ben.pdf

Personally, I am not in favour of forcing any of our biggest, or indeed any, companies to list elsewhere. If it happens on the watch of any government I think they are too wrapped up in party political dogma, to even understand the most elementary principles of basic economic and business sense.

ut Shell changing domicile to the US is a great opportunity for the company in my mind. The accompanying hit on dividends for UK shareholders is a risk, but not an issue until/if it actually happens. At the moment I think it is a bit of a political football that Sawan is playing against a government consumed with hatred of fossil fuels rather than objective analysis.

The late Sir John Harvey Jones said we are not going to make a living as a country by selling beefburgers to each other.

Tom is right, with shares in a SIPP you should be able to reclaim the whole of the Witholding Tax (WHT) on US dividends. In an ISA you can reclaim 15% of the 30% WHT. The following are quite good on this:

International Investor;

https://the-international-investor.com/investment-faq/reclaim-withholding-tax-foreign-dividends-isa-sipp

Investopedia;

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/w8form.asp

With quite a bundle of US Techs, mining shares etc in a Halifax ISA (Don't ask) I am prompted every time I need to complete a new W8Ben Form. I originally completed one for a holding of EntertainmentOne shares - it was a Canadian company until taken over by Hasbro, but there is a reciprocal tax treaty that applies between the US and Canadian Governments - certainly it did a few years ago so I presume it continues.

Shell's clearly focussed & fast-moving business strategy is rapidly addressing oil & gas market dynamics at breathless pace for a company judged to be the 15th largest in the world.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/shell-plans-wide-cuts-oil-exploration-division-sources-say-2024-08-29/

On Friday morning the UK Government was announcing its policy towards any new exploration in the North Sea. By the afternoon Sawan was announcing a robust overhaul of Shell's oil exploration division. Arguably without the intervention of Socialist political dogma, as opposed to economic common-sense, London needs Shell more than Shell needs London. It would be naïve to assume that Sawan will wait pedantically until the end of 2025, before determining whether to head for the NYSE.

There are enormous benefits that will accrue from a NYSE listing. The market is immense - if California was a separate country it would qualify by size of GDP for inclusion in the G7.

Investors in the US can buy Shell ADR's (American Depository Receipts), but these are very different from directly holding shares - courtesy of Google:

ADRs are U.S. dollar-denominated "certificated packages" of shares that trade on the American stock exchanges and track the price of a foreign company's domestic shares. ADRs represent the prices of those shares but do not grant you ownership rights as common stock typically does. There are also usually liquidity differences between buying ordinary shares and ADR's.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-shell-plans-wide-cuts-135133557.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHyRjJVRixamrtv1X2GlSuab1anASFz75pS2MyMS0AE4snk9-KzdfLy2hyUyE2P76Lon6XNdngVjGlMGTAvtoUwJkDQ5_0kGIct2EXG0Al-llX3NIyL0vYGhB3ANnTQ3qJ5ZtyFFgsyoQkIsgjkwb5f1sliHgFBx48noHka4K60

This illustrates the deepening chasm between BP forecasts & reality:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-forecasts-2050-oil-demand-123311311.html

Forecasts about as far apart as BP's grip of "reality" when compared to peer group views:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-forecasts-2050-oil-demand-123311311.html

Wasn't it Thomas Bayes Theorem!

Google-intelligence replacing a virtually empty vessel, only capable of parroting a litany of brain-dead political dogma & largely irrelevant & irrational analysis!

It was evidently the tallest aluminium mast on any yacht in the World! But not the tallest mast on any yacht in the World! If you base your opinions exclusively on facts, it is worth getting your facts right in the first place!

Also particularly when lecturing other people. In terms of use of use of the English Language - there is a significant difference between "biggest" and "tallest!"

I knew some would have difficulty wrapping their single brain cells around what I said:

But "There seems to be a very high attrition rate for the former top management of Autonomy." This is merely a statement of fact, whether you like it or not,

There seems to be a very high attrition rate for the former top management of Autonomy. Mike Lynch founder and CEO, and Stephen Chamberlain former Deputy Vice President of Autonomy & then COO of Darktrace. Both acquitted in June, whilst Shushovan Hussain got 5-years for his involvement in the Autonomy case.

Winstanley - you should be careful, you will run out of fingers counting the number of coincidences you dismiss!