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Brent down 6% so hardly a neutral reaction from the oil market, but Shell and BP SP's not down in line with this fall. Gas definitely well down in price for the US Election though.

The IDF appears to have hit anti-aircraft batteries around Teheran & missile producing facilities, so hardly a peace offering. Does it de-escalate the middle-east conflict? Not really, as the Israeli attacks on Iran have ratcheted up the hostility action level between the two countries a few more notches. And made it clear to Iran what might well happen next on a much bigger scale.

The markets assuming that peace is more likely to break out in the middle-east, or that tensions, devastating attacks, & sabre rattling will reduce is oblivious to the current conflict situation & lessons of history.

Beza,

On this LSE site, immediately under the "BP Share Chat" tab click on "BP Fundamentals."

Scroll all the way down and the last entry is NAV for the last few years.

Larry - it is sad that investing in oil companies is so strongly influenced by geopolitics.

Israel has been at war with Iran for a long time now, and Iran has sworn to remove Israel from the map. Conducting a war through proxies including the Houthis, Hezbollah & Hamas, is without doubt war!

The same macabre dance seems to have played itself out, a pre-dawn attack by scores of Israeli planes, possibly to avoid too many Iranian casualties, military targets only, the cliched response of not much damage being inflicted, and of course the threat of retribution by Iran.

Israel has shown sone restraint with the latest attacks, but is also acting provocatively, showing that it can conduct measured or more widespread, if it chooses, attacks with an accuracy that thus far eludes Iran. The limited attacks are also paying lip-service to the political will of the US , and buying time for the US Election to take place - for now ignoring a big-hit on Iran's nuclear development facilities, and not going for easy oil-infrastructure targets that would inevitably increase the price of "gas" in the US at a sensitive time.

Probably a neutral impact on the oil markets tomorrow, but still an ever present threat of escalation.

Current socialist dogma dictates that individuals are working class if they buy their own clothes!

Dana Farm-in to P2437#

In February 2024, Deltic farmed down a further 25% of its interest in P2437 to Dana Petroleum (E&P) Limited. This transaction, in combination with the existing Shell carry, results in Deltic retaining a 25% non-operated interest in Licence P2437 and having no exposure to 2024 drilling and testing costs up to a cap in excess of current success case well cost estimates ($47M), provided by the Operator.

The deal also includes $500k in cash on completion in relation to back costs incurred by Deltic. Dana will carry Deltic for its residual cost exposure to the Selene well (after utilisation of the existing carry from the Shell farm-out) to a value of $5M, and $6M in a success case.

Dana will pay its 25% share of costs from 1 January 2024 and completion of the deal was on 2 April 2024.

DP thanks. I just used the Dana 40% gross as an illustrative return. Otherwise people would think I was just exaggerating Deltic's potential share of value in Selene. I think they will be looking for a multiple of that or they would never have farmed in.

Once we reach the point of ascertaining flow-rates, optimising drilling outlay, costs of hooking up to nearby infrastructure, timelines and a thousand other factors in calculating the commercial exploitation opportunity, if there is one etc, we will probably get an idea whether Deltic can raise the necessary finance to stay in the game, or whether it wants to opt out and at what juncture.

Says who & based on what facts and analysis!

Exploration

I think your calculations are a long way wide of the mark.

Given a choice between accepting your views and those of Dana I know which has the most credibility.

Dana has invested £25m in securing a 25% stake in Selene & included in the deal a share of Deltic's costs along with Shell. A "promising" initial drill of Selene has likely increased the value of their investment, not decreased it!

Although the Governments political stance is against the North Sea, it is based on stopping any new investment taking place, not stopping existing investments going ahead. Any future PRT levy by the government on Deltic is based on & triggered by profits being made! This is some distance away for Deltic.

However, Dana has invested £25m in Selene so a team of experts at Dana believe that they will obtain a commercial return on this capital. If that return was seen as only being say 40% gross, it would make their investment worth £35m from their perspective.

According to your calculations the same 25% of Selene but de-risked with costs covered, has a value of less than one third of Dana's stake. I don't agree.

I agree with Rot. Surely it is a Doomsday scenario that Deltic's share is only worth £10m, therefore Dana's is only worth £10m and Shell's is only worth £20m. Why would Dana pay £25m for 25%, then have to cover costs, including some of Deltic's costs along with Shell. Rot is right why would anyone bother!

Exploration you are surely erring on the side of unnecessary pessimism!

Let's face the truth though there are no Deltic Energy shareholders left who would stand any chance of coping with success!!!!!

Courtesy of Alliance News:

Deltic Energy climbed 7.7%, as the AIM listing announced moves which will save costs, amid a trick outlook for the UK oil and gas industry.

Deltic said its focus over the next 12 months will be on extracting "value from its existing core UK assets", particularly the Selene prospect in the southern North Sea. The asset is operated by Shell and Deltic has a 25% stake.

The company added that it will be "eliminating or deferring expenditure on non-core UK assets".

"For the last decade, Deltic has invested in its UK portfolio and achieved material exploration success despite the well-publicised political and fiscal headwinds that have hampered the UK's oil and gas industry in recent years. It is clear that, while this situation persists, the UK is not the ideal place in which to invest in new oil and gas exploration or appraisal opportunities. Therefore, the board has carefully considered the best way to leverage the company's international experience and expertise to create value for shareholders going forward," it said.

Chief Executive Officer Andrew Nunn said the moves will result in savings of 40%, compared to costs the firm had budgeted for next year.

"These savings are key to extending the time period in which to identify and incubate those new opportunities that we believe will help towards stabilising the business and providing a platform for future growth supporting our objective of creating positive returns for shareholders," Nunn added.

Brent oil was quoted at USD73.40 a barrel on Monday morning UK time, from USD72.45 at the time of the London equities close on Friday.

DP - The market reaction is disappointing, but Shell has only described the drill as "promising" so a very conservative statement when everyone wants to hear something like "gusher." It has to be the most positive event in the time I've held the shares. I wish I was buying at this level now, but I don't think that another bean of my money is going into this until there is a commercial runway, and a timeline to delivery to the bottom line.

Then after the business plan being Millibanded the world will have to be Deltics oyster, or at least for 4-years until the political clowns go back to the socialist big-top in opposition!

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/uk-s-first-exploration-well-this-year-looks-promising/2-1-1727126

Apologies if it bursts a few bubbles - the news on Selene is fantastic, but was 70% or more likely in any case.

Company turnarounds though generally take more than the 6-days gestation period since Graham Swindell's announced his departure, with the grateful thanks of the Board. Exploration is capital hungry results non-existent for a long period before the lottery of commercial success can even hope to be achieved.

Graham Swindells was a corporate financier & he has completed what he was employed to do. Pensacola was not given away, it was negotiated away for the Selene deal. When the truth is out it will probably be seen that Shell, in starting the overall process of extricating itself from the North Sea has acted quite honourably.

The doubters should ask themselves whether Andrew Nunn has been walking on water and has discovered commercial deposits at Selene & turned Deltic around in 6-days! Or whether the foundations & contractual negotiations are the work of Graham Swindells over the previous year and more.

Not much of a market reaction though!

Https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-value-of-share-buybacks

The miniscule buys and sells are what is termed spoofing the market. Putting a spoke in the wheel of the algo's etc.

Say 10 fast buys of a share at £1 and one sale of 100,000 shares @ 95p! Statistically there are 10 x as many buys as sells. There are lies, dam-ned lies, and statistics! Nothing changes!

Should have stated: "The share prices of BP and Shell are not joined at the hip WITH THE OP at the moment which is disconcerting.

Claire - apologies for the late reply. Personally I think BP will strive to reduce their Net Debt level, simply because they need to restore the required AAA credit rating from Fitch as soon as possible. With phenomenal cash flows, the likes of BP & Shell are insulated to a greater extent than most companies from the vagaries of interest rate movements. As you say they are on their way down, but there is always a lag effect. Wael Sawan at Shell is on record as stating that he intends to cut costs and accumulate cash. I wonder why?

What really matters? The share prices of BP and Shell are not joined at the hip at the moment which is disconcerting. The Middle-East conflagration & likely spread, Israel's much trumpeted revenge attack on Iran taking place, plus fears of recessionary impacts in the US and China, the US maxing oil output, depressed refinery margins, Russian, Venezuelan & Iranian oil cargoes going "dark" & un-trackable, bond printing presses running hot, gaming with the SPR, BP is twenty billion dollars plus cheaper than when it was being touted as a takeover target earlier this year, serious shorting of the oil majors etc etc. Then you add in the incalculable humanitarian issues that abound.

Maybe logic and sense will make a return post the US Election, but in the meantime gas prices will be at a reasonable level for the US Election plus as a bonus the US has shown the world that it is still capable of influencing the OP.

Comparison of the overall effects of using cash for buybacks of shares with using the cash to pay down net debt is much more complex than most investors imagine. When the company pays down debt, this action impacts not only its capital structure, and the cost of capital, and the P/E ratio changes. Yet because the enterprise value of the company stays the same, so does the value to shareholders.

Impacts of net debt reduction can also be assumed or implied. Say a company had net debt of £5m, and was considering issuing a £5m Bond at a coupon of 5%, partially or wholly to cover the net debt. If the company then paid down its net debt by £1m or 20%, this might change the size and scope of the Bond that might be issued. If the company could obtain ROIC of 14% by ploughing capital back into the business etc etc, the effects of paying down net debt is complex rather than simplistic!

Selene is not looking like the answer to a maidens prayer at the moment!

Shell SP down 4.5p, Brent down $1.97 at the moment. The Middle-East conflagration & likely spread, plus fears of recessionary impacts in US and China, the US maxing oil output, depressed refinery margins, bond printing presses running hot, gaming with the SPR, serious shorting of the oil majors etc etc.

Maybe logic and sense will make a return post the US Election, but in the meantime gas prices will be at a reasonable level for the US Election plus as a bonus the US has shown the world that it is still capable of influencing the OP.