Member Info for getafgrip

Clued - I was working for Professional Executive Recruitment in September 1988 when it became the UK's first successful privatisation. Around 70 companies were interested in buying PER at the time. It was taken over by Robert Maxwell's Pergamon Ltd, which was managed by one of his sons, Kevin Maxwell, who went on to achieve notoriety as the UK's biggest bankrupt. I worked for Robert Maxwell for some time following the privatisation.

Stranger than fiction that Mike Lynch is missing from a luxury Mediterranean yacht.

For billionaire entrepreneurs yachts are very dangerous methods of transport particularly in the Mediterranean. I was working for Robert Maxwell some years ago when he mysteriously fell into the sea from his yacht the Lady Ghislaine! The joke doing the rounds in the company at the time was that he was offered a burial plot on the Mount of Olives at an extortionate price just before his death! He claimed that it was a ridiculous price, because he would only be there for a few nights!

Narcissistic views of the Chair of the Self-Appreciation Society of Great Britain.

L - that mirrors my thoughts. A lot of market dynamics at play as always, but Shell's SP looks well supported at this level & as a company doing many of the right things consistently and predictably.

For me the next trade may well come out of what will be the inevitable escalation in the Middle-East, associated oil price spike, & then tight-rope walking to judge how quickly heightened tensions will subside down to "normal" confrontational levels between the protagonists!

Unless there is something really dramatic to release, it is likely that we will not hear anything until at least 90-days has elapsed. Also Shell is the lead on this, so it will be surprising if they are not the news-breaker.

So far looks like a relatively resilient and conservative fall in the Shell SP on going Ex-Dividend.

In terms of escalation Ronen Bergman writing in the New York Times is anticipating an attack on Israel by Iran & Hezbollah by the end of this week. Both sides have learned from the recent mass rocket attack on Israel & considerable time has been expended in preparation for this phase. The US is racing another carrier group and submarine to the Middle-East. But Iran & Israel have really been technically at war for decades.

Shell SP rising nicely towards going Ex-dividend, so a squeeze up on buyers wanting to purchase shares cum-dividend as the time to do so ebbs away. Brent only very marginally up so Shell showing considerable resilience and confidence, particularly when using BP as a comparator. Sawan's magic seems to be working & he admits to building up cash reserves, reducing debt, cutting costs etc - I wonder why!

The Biden administration playing with the SPR, pressurising refinery margins etc in an attempt to get sensitive gas prices low for the Election run-up. Iran refusing to have any retaliatory action against Israel hamstrung or even influenced by the West, potentially causing a spike in oil prices at some point soon. China not really playing the game and buying more oil. If the truth is admitted at some point "dark" cargos of oil from Venezuela, Russia and Iran, are probably obscuring the real figures for world trade and usage of oil.

I see Shell as being extremely astutely managed, in what amounts to a "golden" period - long may it continue

Https://www.h2-view.com/story/shell-secures-itm-electrolyser-stacks-following-fid-on-green-hydrogen-plant/2113622.article/

Shell appears content to take 30% of Pensacola with a view to commercial extraction in the future. Maybe someone at Shell considers that 30% of the biggest O & G discovery in the SNS in the last decade actually has a value, even if you do not!

Technically Pensacola must meet Wael Sawan's stringent higher return on assets criteria, or it would not have been retained by Shell, which it clearly has. But, there is much more to this. Because unfortunately this indicates that Pensacola must have a significant value as the biggest O & G find in the SNS for over a decade!

But, how does Shell or Deltic then explain that 7-weeks previously 30% of Pensacola was relinquished to Shell at zero value! Not only this but even though discussions were taking place with a number of parties relating to the farm-out of Pensacola, not one made any bid! If 30% of Pensacola was judged to have no value, then it follows that 100% had no value either!

The whole thing wreaks of seeing what they can get away with, which is why Swindells has said nothing, probably out of concern for what might come up as quotes in a court case. Have the big shareholders in Deltic raised any concerns or issues over this sale! No - so they are probably comfortable with what has transpired.

This divestment notice was announced by Shell on its website on the 30th July 2024:

"Shell to sell offshore gas assets in the UK Southern North Sea to Viaro Energy":

"London − Shell U.K. Limited (“Shell UK”), a subsidiary of Shell plc, and Esso Exploration and Production UK Limited, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil Corporation (“ExxonMobil”), have reached an agreement to sell their offshore natural gas assets interests in the U.K. Southern North Sea to RockRose Energy Limited, a subsidiary of Viaro Energy. These assets are currently operated by Shell through Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM), a joint venture between Shell and ExxonMobil."

Selene was not named specifically in the sale - "Shell interests in the sale includes 11 gas fields and one exploration prospect in the U.K. Southern North Sea, as well as the onshore Bacton Terminal. Headquartered in London, Viaro Energy is an independent British producer which already has a working interest in over 65 fields in the U.K. and Netherlands North Sea."

Deltic and Shell would have shareholders believe that following Swindells Deltic announcement on the 11th June that there was no interest whatsoever in any company partnering or getting involved in any way with farming out Pensacola, suddenly out of nowhere during the 7-weeks to the 30th July 2024 an out of the blue deal was completed for Selene!

Complex negotiations involving massive super-majors Shell & Exxon selling vastly expensive SNS assets, were initiated and completed in less that 7-weeks, say in 6-weeks or 5-weeks -come on! Legally as a significant shareholder & stakeholder in Pensacola and Selene, Deltic had to be a party to these negotiations when they took place!Shareholders are also led to believe, as they sit on significant losses, that Graham Swindells was true to his word/or lines to take, with his 11th June 2024 announcement of no interest being shown in farming out Pensacola! So 7-weeks ago we are led to believe that NONE of the parties involved, knew anything of the planned divestments by Exxon and Shell!

This whole episode lacks credibility, but the truth is coming out very clearly now!

Shell's negotiations with Deltic must have intrinsically linked trade-offs over Selene and Pensacola. Remember how urgent the suddenly tightly defined time-constrained situation with Pensacola became, which after reversion to Shell's ownership, must be owned 95% by Shell and 5% by the drilling contractor OneDyas.

Selene looks to have been sold to Viero, subject to Regulatory approval, but this is not mentioned by name on every site, although all mention the sale of 1 x Exploratory play being included which must be Selene.

It would fit with Shell's strategy to sell Pensacola as well. I fact it is a glaring omission from the overall sale! Why! Probably because 7-weeks ago Deltic was stating that there were no prospective buyers or partners for a Pensacola negotiation! The price-sensitive repercussions of this saw the Deltic SP tombstone! Then 7-weeks later could Shell credibly say that they had suddenly found a buyer for not just Pensacola but the whole shooting-match portfolio held by them. This is why Swindells barely commented on the withdrawal from Pensacola at the time on the 11th June.

The trade-off for Deltic was a great deal on Selene, but the whole episode should be examined by the Regulatory authorities.

Apologies 7-weeks ago rather than 5.

Deltic announced its withdrawal from Pensacola on the 11th June 2024.

It would be stretching everyone's imagination if it is claimed that the overarching negotiations of Shell's sale to Viaro were not taking place only 5-weeks ago.

It also indicates very strongly that a deal was done with Deltic in relation to both Selene and Pensacola, which explains much of what happened relating to Pensacola. There was a bigger picture involved, parts of which got in the way of Shell's overall strategy.

L - An excellent article. Maybe Mike Lynch was lucky. Alan Turing, recognised as a mathematical genius & inventor of the World's first computer, was chemically castrated by a grateful nation, leading to his suicide! We certainly know how to deal with our heroes - very little changes!

This stage of the Selene Project is as described by Deltic a 90-day drilling Appraisal, no doubt involving detailed testing at every opportunity, to check out what is there, volumes and where they are most likely to be found in the structure.

Everything I have seen so far in terms of news refers to Deltic's announcement of a 90 -day drilling schedule, taking us through to roughly mid-October, The following is typical:

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1721745762257961300/deltic-energy-says-valaris-123-drilling-unit-mobilised-for-selene-well.aspx

Everyone will have read about Wael Sawan halting construction of Shell's new biofuel production plant in the Netherlands, and the massive associated impairment/write-down! Also BP & others in the sector have been reducing their exposure to bio-fuels.

But yesterdays fall in the Shell SP of nearly 50p appeared to be out of context in terms of the overall market. Possibly it was associated with the news that KKR were taking a significant stake in ENI's biofuel business, at what looks like a premium price compared to previous estimates of value.

The markets take on this appears to have been that maybe Wael Sawan has misjudged forecasts for the bio-fuels market, and KKR is backing its more positive views on the bio-fuels market. An interesting development as they are obviously not both right.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/italys-eni-exclusive-talks-with-kkr-over-sale-minority-stake-biofuel-unit-2024-07-23/

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/JP-Morgan-Explains-Why-Oil-Prices-Could-Hit-100-This-Year.html

Party dogma overtakes energy security & economic common sense! It did not take the Labour Party long!

Norwegian Oil & Gas Discovery announced today:

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/after-no-luck-in-june-norwegian-player-makes-oil-gas-discovery-in-north-sea/