RE: Sp v OP10 Apr 2024 13:43
Boyo - I have to admit I was starting to need an injection of common sense from the resident Welsh Chart Wizard. Against my better judgement I was starting to think ceiling what ceiling! Like you taking gains I was actually considering bailing out, until Wael Sawan started singing New York, New York!
I know that it will make your day to know that I have modified my view on buy-backs prospectively being the absolute Holy Grail. I accept that we have to ween ourselves off fossil fuels, if we have time, albeit with peak oil production day being some years away yet, and zero fossil fuel day being maybe 50 or 60 years away, or never! I really see buy-backs now as being essential in incrementally supporting the SP in an inevitably declining market place, but also as Sawan says he sees them as a great investment in an undervalued company.
What changed my view was largely down to thinking about Shell's decision to divest 500 of their filling stations a year over the next two years. On the face of it pretty significant stuff. Until you think that Shell has 12,500 filling stations so that at this rate of attrition it will take 25-years for Shell to divest all of its fossil fuel filling stations - which takes it to around 2050. So maybe Shell has realistically modelled, and is definitely planning for, zero fossil fuel day as being 25-years away and counting.
As an aside, I recently bought some more shares in Deltic Energy. Shell is Deltic's big-brother partner in the North Sea Pensacola and Selene fields. Selene was recently farmed out to include Dana as an additional new partner in the project, but leaving Deltic with a 25% share of any commercially recoverable oil after covering all drilling costs. A risky, but interesting play. Deltic's 2023 Final Results should be out on Thursday the 18th April with update announcements presumably.