Member Info for getafgrip

Individual investors should focus on the performance reality of their investments rather than cloaking the actual performance of a particular share, or their overall portfolio with glib generalisations.

The gain on any share is defined by its performance over a defined time (less inflation in the interests of opportunity cost calculations) - this might be from initially buying the shares through to the point of selling them. Ideally, clearer perspective is obtained by annualising the gain.

With the same exercise carried out for loss-making shares, these can be subtracted from your gains to obtain your overall share portfolio performance, whether it be actual or annualised performance.

BP is arguably a quality share, over time "every dog has its day" so it may perform well in the future, but these might be "crutch to lean on" factors that distort the reality of continuing underperformance & self-justify holding an underperforming share indefinitely!

DP - the Pensacola deal will happen, but if it takes more time than we are happy with, or say we wish it was July and the drills were turning, we all need to think because we are effectively wishing our lives away!

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Standard-Chartered-Sees-Oversupplied-Gas-Markets-Tightening-Oil.html

DP - don't worry Deltic is in very good hands. Through the Selene deal the Board has reassured all stakeholders that a similar deal will be agreed over Pensacola. As you say once we get to drilling, and its not far away now, the real excitement will start!

Boyo - you are absolutely right, if the OP rises it merely glosses over BP's issues for a bit longer. The recent results and confirmation of Board appointments, acted only to confirm more of the same - NO change in strategy whatsoever. BP is very vulnerable.

Boyo - its an interesting read - you can get in by googling the link. My take on part of what is said is the view that the supermajors are using buybacks to manage the inevitable decline of their share prices on a yearly basis over time. It fits with one of my perennial views that; its not just about the buybacks upside on the share-price, but also where we would be SP wise without heavy buybacks. Just interested to know your view on this.

Oil market tightening:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Oil-Market-Is-Tightening-to-2016-Levels.html

Warm Winter Drags U.S. Natural Gas Prices to Three-Decade Low:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Warm-Winter-Drags-US-Natural-Gas-Prices-to-Three-Decade-Low.html

DP - I completely agree. Until there are revenues coming in from the oil flowing, hopefully, any price-guessing is going to be speculative, But, the upside potential is phenomenal. A good quote based on the varying prices people have paid is "a rising tide floats all boats!" So fingers crossed.

I will be mega-surprised if we see 20p again. But another quote from Warren Buffet is: "Be Fearful when others Are Greedy & Greedy when others are fearful."

If you have bought Deltic shares at a price that you are not happy with there is actually only one person that you can blame!

The question you need to ask now is, when you apply all of your no doubt vast knowledge of share dealing, "would I buy them today?" If you would not simply sell them!

A constant litany of "poor me" & how you are being swindled by Deltic is not constructive & achieves nothing!

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Major-Oil-Companies-Make-Moves-in-Megamerger-Frenzy.html

Starmer already seems to bend whichever way the wind blows. Killing oil & gas sounds good on the campaign trail though!

But the reality is likely to be very different. Is he going to choke off a profitable sector of the economy that is just starting to show promise again? Is he going to kill off skilled highly paid jobs? Is he interested in energy security? Is he interested in the balance of payments? Is he satisfied to import exactly the same commodities from abroad? Is he happy to leave a major valuable resource unsold in the ground as everyone moves to happily produced electricity that doesn't harm anyone? Is he willing to waste the major investments taking place right now!

Also what does he say to Shell as the UK's biggest company, which domiciled here from January 2023, because killing North Sea investment was certainly not part of the agreement with the UK Government.

Deltic may not see itself as ultimately being a much different company. At companies House Deltic is classified as Standards Industrial Classification (SIC) "Code 06200 - Extraction of natural gas." They are widely known as an Oil & Gas exploration company but prominently on their website they describe themselves as: "Deltic Energy Plc is an AIM-listed natural resources investing company."

Investors Chronicle view:

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/are-shell-and-bp-s-buybacks-good-for-shareholders/

PW - Brent has been down the best part of a $ today, but this is also combined with BP going Ex-Dividend today - toxic twins playing with the SP. This is the point the markets re-calibrate the SP anyway as they see going Ex-Dividend as the point the dividend has left the building! Technically this actually happens on dividend payment day, the 28th March 2024.

The popular definition of a recession is usually considered to be at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction – or ‘negative growth’ – in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

We will not officially know whether we continued to be in or out of recession for the first quarter of 2024 until the ONS releases the appropriate data & associated announcements in mid May 2024.

The IEA do not consider that peak oil demand has already happened - see the table on demand and supply at the end of this report "Analysis and Forecast to 2026":

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2021

Also to add to the SP equation is the current vulnerability of BP, which is still paying for the Deepwater Horizon disaste, although this is coming to a close now. The costs of this were estimated at $65 billion in 2018. So with growth wouldn't BP be worth almost as much as Shell now!

For me the market is not going to hit anywhere near the £27.27p of the 16th October 2023, as Ex-D approaches. All the vagaries of slowing of demand, is inflation sorted, when will the first interest rate cut happen etc Heavy pre-election political influences dragging the price. Biden pushing the Permian output to the point of being a "swing" producer with up to 5.4 mbd, or the equivalent of 5-6% of daily world demand. India and China slaking their demand on cheap Russian oil. Both a demand distorter and price suppressor.

Disruption to World trade emanating from the Gulf having minimal impact on price, war all over the place again having little impact on price etc. The market is very distorted from reality at the moment. I've been waiting to trade for some time now, but have not done so & personally I am not persuaded to at the moment. I tend not to average up and down & rather if the decision looks right to me I bailout altogether.

I think Boyo's latest graph is really explicit on this. Although I think the OP will carry on strengthening, they are choppy unpredictable waters for trading as far as I am concerned. If the booby prize is receipt of another dividend I will not be unhappy for now. Good luck guys.

US Geological Survey:

The Permian Basin, America’s largest, most productive oil basin, is estimated to hold 71 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

But experts say geological estimates are constantly changing. Even if 71 billion barrels were immediately recoverable, the U.S. would consume that amount of oil in about 10 years.

On this basis. If world consumption of oil is around 100 million barrels per day, the 71 billion barrels could supply total World demand for around a couple of years. Or say 10% of World demand for 20-years. If World demand decreases over the years, this would obviously make the Permian reserves last longer.

Recent production levels of over 5.4-million-bpd makes the Permian alone a bigger producer than any OPEC member except Saudi Arabia. Permian production levels for me, are being heavily influenced politically in an election year.

Also, don't forget that this farmout is not just Deltic centric.

Dana has come in as a new major partner, buying in to the previous agreement & obviously with the full agreement of Shell. If successful, this will open & expand the possibilities of future partnerships.

Also, with the Selene project etc, Shell will have kept a "Risks Log" with any key changes likely going up to main board level. Several of the risks will have related to Deltic financing their side of the agreement, and no doubt the mitigating action necessary if Deltic say went into liquidation, or was say taken over, along with the achievement of progressive milestones.

These risks will have changed considerably with the Selene deal - even those flashing red (red, amber, green) will have likely changed status, and will be much less likely to become issues. Risks tend to become issues when they bite you hard on the a..se!

The Selene deal is a massive boost to how Deltic is seen as a prospective Partner & itsoverall status in the exploration arena.