Member Info for getafgrip

I think we all agree any financial uncertainty is going to be unsettling & depress the share price relatively. The longer this funding gap remains, the more pressing the perceived need to resolve the situation, the harder Deltic will be negotiating an acceptable commercial deal. The reality is probably Deltic have narrowed it down to 2-3 preferred lenders and they are at the stage of playing them off against each other, seeing who blinks first to get the best deal!

It is impossible not to see the prospective pot of gold in terms of proven reserves at Pensacola alone, and the 30% stake held by a company only valued at around £20 million. If memory serves me right, Shell will also bear the first 75% of drilling costs up to a maximum of £25 million expended. "Transformational" for Deltic - it certainly looks like it.

Apologies for the repetition Larry - I should pay more attention!

Oilprice.com are looking at the possibility of supply cuts coming out of the OPEC meeting:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Said-To-Consider-Additional-1-Million-Bpd-Output-Cut.html

Also it looks like icy weather forecasts for the East Coast of the US. This is always a big factor for me, that can harden oil prices if it is prolonged.

Looks well reasoned:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Heating-Oil/Unwarranted-Demand-Pessimism-Could-Lead-To-Big-Oil-Price-Rally.html

There is a lot of analysis out there, essentially repeating the statements that were made by Wael Sawan when presenting the 3rd Quarter results. However conversely, if he was open to considering acquisitions, it seems highly unlikely that he would say "yes, as it happens we are looking at making a big acquisition right now, with the intention of doubling our size say!" Strategy can be hugely complex, but I would not expect him to reveal his hand, whatever his intentions.

Just to add to the "spoofing the markets" theme. It is an odd concept, particularly when you only pick up on part of it. For instance you look for a rational reason why anyone would buy a single share or £1 worth shares. It seems odd because we all know a £1 purchase .will surely not drive a market in any way.

The reality is that many of the trades across the markets are driven by algorithms these days. These could be literally based on anything the author has coded into the system. So, say on a particular trading day there are 10 trades. Eight of them are £1 purchases, started at the opening bell and then made at hourly intervals through the day. The other two trades are sales each of 1 x million £'s worth of shares.

So that a particular algorithm might inform its user that 80% of purchase trades that day were buys, purchases took place every hour of the day, 80% of all trades that day were buys, only 20% of trades were sales etc. This can then be extrapolated out with £1 purchases made around the world, effectively extending the trading hours, spoofing different exchanges, making 3 x purchases in 3-seconds, complicated further by private and dark pool exchanges etc. Looking at volumes of sales and buys will change the information coming back for analysis.

Buying or selling small numbers of shares, often in sequence is known as "spoofing the market," essentially misleading the market, to then take advantage of the direction you induce. It looks odd and counter-intuitive, but often works for the perpetrators.

Yes, a big green rocket and its not even bonfire night yet!

Shell increased the dividend by 15% in the 4th Quarter of 2022. It is not exactly off the radar that this might be a pattern that happens again. Many actually like the idea that the operational year is completed before a dividend hike is implemented - I certainly do. Also there is the feeling that January is a new operational year, the 15% hike in dividend is associated with the previous year, even though it is paid in March of the new year.

Dividends are often seen as a straight choice between buybacks and dividends, but it is not as straightforward as that. A dividend is paid and the capital invested goes to the shareholders & effectively disappears from the company perspective.

Buybacks are one element of redesigning and streamlining the capital structure of a company. They can be bought and cancelled beneficially based on the market capitalisation of the company i.e. if the company is undervalued in the markets, buying at say £9 or £15 and being cancelled well in advance, but in anticipation of, the SP reaching say £27. Buybacks when compounded relentlessly reduce the number of shares in issue. This reduces the amount of capital that the company pays out in dividends not just this year, but in future years too.

I tandem with this there is an assumption the the company makes the saved capital work harder, essentially "sweating" its assets. If it sells an asset like the Permian basin, although shareholders will initially hold a more valuable stake in a smaller company, there is an assumption that the capital asset exiting is replaced by other "better" assets, or becomes working capital working harder.

Along with massive FCF, reductions in debt, selling off overlapping assets, BP looking weak (no CEO and bad results) etc. a company can be seen as classically gearing up for an acquisition.

DS - it might be based on the number of Kangaroos mating in Australia at a given time, or the number of people of Guatemalan origin walking along Oxford Street in London at a given time, or the number of astronauts with a mole on their left shoulder, but it is usually hyperbolic unsubstantiated guesswork!

Telegraph on benefits of a BP merger with Shell:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/31/why-oils-next-mega-merger-should-be-shell-and-bp/

Halloween night for anyone who likes theatrics, BP with not even a Looney in charge since September, and profits dipping well below estimates, shouting at the markets BP needs to be better managed and soon!

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67267719

Personally, I think he will be. There is quite a history relating to the two companies getting together - Sir John Browne at BP was really keen on a merger. And without a CEO any company is slightly more vulnerable to a predator. Or the route to US valuations might be taking over a US Oil & Gas company!

FD - I don't think that is the full picture:

https://www.nationalgas.com/land-and-assets/landowners-occupiers-and-grantors

It's a great pity if we cannot think of any alternative use for a national "airtight" pipework infrastructure, that virtually covers the length and breadth of the country.

How much has been spent on Broadband fibre rolling out, in capital allocation & precious time. The gas pipework infrastructure has probably been better maintained than the water distribution infrastructure. We might even with development get rid of some of the electricity pylons that blight the countryside. The wayleaves for development across the whole gas pipeline infrastructure alone are worth a fortune!

Sir John Harvey Jones of "Troubleshooter" fame , used to say that business was about slaying your favourite children." Wael Sawan is starting to look more and more like the activist investor within. In recessionary, inflation-blighted, interest tightened economies, with cost of living shackled world populations, a cash rich company like Shell is overwhelmed with choices!

I am hugely disappointed in the market response to the launch of an essential new product, that has been a fundamental requirement of Darktrace's product range from the first days of the Cloud. A 1% increase in the share price indicates that the market itself is completely unconvinced and underwhelmed by this new offering.

I would really like to be wrong, not least because I have a heavy bet on Darktrace eventually coming good. But I do not justify any losses so far by filling myself with groundless optimism or irrational exuberance.

Generally if it has a furry coat, walks like a dog, and barks like a dog, it generally is a dog! But, every dog has its day & hopefully Darktrace will! So, when Darktrace's Board distract themselves from just operating the newly minted millionaire factory, who knows! They are in the right place at the right time, but growing at snail's pace!

The markets response to the announcement relating to what you seem to view as being the product of the century, taking the cyber-technology world by storm, is for the share price to creep forward around 1%. A resounding damp squib response - the proof of the product will be in the "increased" sales. The product has probably been rushed forward, to counter the falling share price. In truth it is probably barely through POC, UAT, etc.

What you completely fail to grasp is that the announcement of this product a few hours ago is absolute confirmation that this cloud product did not exist previously! Yet your analytical "skills" seem to be forming the argument that it has been around as long as Darktrace! It is actually incontrovertible proof that the product is available from today going forwards, and that the product did not exist previously! Give yourself a few years to consider this and you might, with a lot of luck, reach the obvious conclusion! I am only saying "one" might as there is no guarantee!

Obviously a chimp has taught you to copy and pastes. Darktrace informed investors of the launch of this product by RNS at 7.00am this morning i.e. 3 hours 22 minutes ago. Neither this so far unproven product nor Prevent w ere in place a decade ago. My statements were based on Prevent being an extremely late arrival to the party.

You are a smart guy, I would guess you might have a braincell because you realised Priti Patel had left office 6-months previously when I informed you of this! Good luck with investment you will clearly need it! I cluelessly made a six-figure gain last year & completely tax-free in an ISA! How are you doing?