Member Info for getafgrip

Exactly right Jack - Selene is almost a future sacrificial lamb - it gives Deltic 2 x big partners & shows the ballpark negotiating figures, this really pressurises a better deal faster for Pensacola, and several interested investing parties in the Southern North Sea have already missed out on the Selene deal, so they might come up with a better deal.

SB - Deltic Energy retains a 25% non-operational stake in Selene. As it stands, at no further cost to them, and if nothing else changes Deltic is destined to be a producer of 25% of the oil from Selene, albeit non-operationally - Deltic has a choice whether it becomes a producer or not.

With Selene virtually all costs are covered whilst Deltic Energy retains a 25% non-operational stake. Even a sizeable $500,000 cash upfront payment. Nothing short of brilliant!

Apologies on the dividend:" BP also hiked its dividend by year-on-year 10%to 7.27 cents a share in the fourth quarter."

BP's results have been well-received - analysts views seem to vary between "profits plunge" on a replacement cost basis & the 4th Quarter 2023 being ahead of forecasts at $3 billion - so choose your weapon really.

A lot of soundbites like cost-cutting, choosing the highest project returns. delivering a simpler more focused and higher-value company. Maintaining the dividend & increasing buybacks to entertain shareholders. It seems to conflict with the continued strategic development of renewables though, with often low, spasmodic, unreliable profitability.

I can't help thinking that when the euphoria disappears from the results and the realities set in again: "if you do what you always do, you get what you always got!"

Occidental CEO predicts 2025 oil supply shortage:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Buffett-Backed-Occidental-CEO-Says-Oil-Shortage-by-2025.html

Looks like a few shorts getting squeezed:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Crude-Oil-Could-Be-Ripe-for-A-Short-Squeeze.html

I couldn't agree more! All "Property is theft!" (French: La propriété, c'est le vol!) is a slogan coined by French anarchist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon in his 1840 book What Is Property?

On this basis it puzzles me why you lot have vehicles that require fuel in the first place though! I thought even dysfunctional families provided their progeny with a decent pair of clogs! You'll be wanting a hot meal once a week next!

US charging Iran with evading oil sanctions:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Charges-Iranian-Oil-Trafficking-Network-Over-Sanctions-Evasion.html

Boyo - the gap analysis is really stark. It appears to start to manifest itself and widen from around January 2022, so that its not a particularly recent phenomenon but becomes much more potentially serious from starting around the middle of 2023. As you say from October 2023 it accelerates to looking really serious, basket-case/ recovery play territory.

It seems the market is dictating through the share price malaise that enough is enough & a major change of strategy is needed. It is becoming increasingly less concerned whether the impetus for this is internal or external. Your graphs indicate that steadying the ship, or more of the same, are not going to be viable options.

I put a couple of dividends from Shell into BP recently & will probably develop this further.

It looks like a stray rocket might impact the OP next week! Have a good weekend.

Apologies by "oblivious" I obviously meant obvious! Quite funny really!

DP - Never let anyone try to persuade you that the Information Super-Highway stretches as far as the Scottish Borders - it does not!

BadA one of the licenses is adjacent to a Shell license.

The market reaction says it all. Shell exudes confidence, consistency & belief in the future of the business. As D says the $3.5 billion buybacks are clearly paid for by an (8.5% ish increase in debt). A really bold statement that Shell believes it can outperform the cost of debt.

Also it is clear that Shell will not be slavishly tied to increasing the dividend by 15% in the final quarter each year. It will be increased when business results justify it.

This will make the BP's results on the 6th of February even more interesting & BP will for me most likely look even weaker and more vulnerable after them! Even if BP tried to emulate or simply copy Shell's business strategy, they are well over a year behind them & still without the will, leadership or Board mandate enabling a change of strategy at pace.

BP are weak and getting weaker. The weakest and most oblivious target in the sector, when several of its peers have already recently ceded their independence, they are becoming a primary target for the predators that are circling around!

My money would be on a predator announcing a hostile bid, and then Sawan coming along as a saviour with an agreed merger/takeover. Whatever else this looks like the beginning of the end of BP's independence, they have not shown a glimmer of hope that they can save themselves so far!

DP - Thanks for the maps. And apologies as wires definitely crossed. There were no replies at all showing on LSE when I responded.

In the Scottish Borders today - Microsoft Bing was not working at all & Google was at best intermittent & could not access the NSTA site fully. Maybe something to do with using Shell Broadband which they have just sold to Octopus,

Looks like good news for Deltic anyway.

North Sea Transition Authority’s (NSTA) 33rd licensing round. Winners are the usual suspects Shell, BP, Equinor etc, But further results possibly including Deltic Energy to come - the Southern North Sea licenses are awaiting environmental impact assessments:

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/24-licences-offered-in-second-tranche-of-33rd-oil-and-gas-licensing-round/

Unsubstantiated, misleading, misinformation, with meaningless analysis of invented facts that simply do not exist other than between your ears! Investors need to be aware of the quality & veracity of any post by you!

G2BH,

If you are genuinely trying to "prevent innocent beginners from getting fleeced" it might be beneficial if they are presented with the occasional fact on which to base their decision-making!

The Deliveroo IPO flotation price was at £3.90 per share. You will not believe me so please check what the FT stated on this:

https://www.ft.com/content/8e4f7b6d-65fe-4bef-8d4a-ab0906b00bde

On the 27th September you stated "Not a company I would invest in."

I think the final impairment(s) figure will have been decided based more on Sawan's overall strategic perspective than basic accounting principles. Personally I think it is likely to be mostly attributable to a realistic valuation of assets, in the event of M & A activity. With your accounting background you obviously know how write-downs impact on ROCE, ROI etc.

A variability factor of $2 billion was indicated with the original announcement on the 8th January relating to impairment(s). This would indicate a very high, costly, and mystifying level of variability in the performance of "incompetent accounts staff." Also four and a half thousand million dollars of impairment(s) is a level of performance from "incompetent accounts staff" that would have me racing for the exit.

Hi! DP,

I must admit that I have simply not considered that Deltic would intend to remain an exploration only company. Particularly with the prospect of a consistent revenue flow coming in to sight. I just can't see any reason why they would not want to step up from being an exploration vehicle, to the next level, which is exploration/production. Otherwise what would they develop into - a bigger exploration company, a well capitalised exploration company or one with excess capital to distribute every so often!

I just see Deltic as pursuing the relative security of vertical integration, with a runway of significant projects building the company, with the necessity of farming out/borrowing, becoming less and less. They have the licences, expertise, and so far the luck to enable them to transform the company and step up. Why would an ambitious company like Deltic not grasp the opportunity.