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BMB - is this Nirmal Borkhataria, the Interim Head of Finance at Edinburgh University?

Whoever it is he will have to get his analytical head around the fact that BP has fallen so far and so fast, that getting better "incrementally," whatever twaddle this alludes to, will literally get BP nowhere fast! It will never catch up with its peer group and comparators at a snails pace.

BP has been caught with its pants down, which is quite appropriate from previous Boardroom behaviour. Paying for dividends and buybacks partially from debt, invested in a shotgun blast collection of random renewables most of which will not contribute positively to the balance sheet any time soon if ever, NO clear out of moribund renewable investments, underinvested in Oil & Gas exploration at the wrong time, Incapable of updating the markets on BP's "Plan" for a ridiculously protracted period, NO desperately needed clear out of a Board that is unfit for purpose by Auchinloss, a PR function that is barely discernible, communication that really plumbs the depths!

The sum of BP's parts is greater than the whole for an asset stripper. Anyone on this thread could have deduced this!

Abysmally threadbare "analysis" informs nobody of anything meaningful.

Yes, its an ill wind that blows nobody any good! But, petrol and diesel prices increasing, a cold snap on the East coast of the US, & depletion of European gas storage, can make us happy in other ways!

A happy and preposterous (prosperous) New Year to you Larry, LA, and all posters.

MM - its good to know that the old "Honkers and Shankers" bank is still squeezing its profits out of its customers until the pips squeak!

Going back to the days of the Midland Bank that became HSBC. I have a great letter in my Hiroshima style filing system at home. I wrote in to them complaining about the spectacularly low interest rate paid on my current account and threatening to close my account altogether!

The reply from the manager in Newcastle was an absolute classic, assuring me that 0.1% interest was extremely competitive on the high street at the time! After all customers only have to live a 100-years and on a simple basis they have collared 10%, and even better if you can be bothered to work out the compounding effect!

Usury is alive and kicking!

The Bayesian on schedule to be raised between mid-January 2025 & the end of February 2025!

The Bayesian insured for $2.1 billion, so this story has not yet reached its conclusion by some distance!

The optimist in me agrees with abzzba that there will be good news before Christmas. But the pessimist in me is asking which Christmas are we talking about!

The Russian Shadow Fleet & concerns that increasing & imposing sanctions more robustly will increase the price of oil:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russias-10-Billion-Shadow-Armada-Exposed-by-Ukrainian-Intelligence.html

Sanctions are extremely ineffective, if you look at the guesstimates of Russian oil production before and after the Ukraine invasion. But they have the double-edged effects of keeping oil prices down, disrupting supply chains, raising transport costs due to routing issues & availability of tankers, and neutering OPEC and OPEC +, which is what the US wants.

LA - you are right, we all need some Christmas excitement! A takeover, creating a £200 billion company, then a listing on Wall Street & I don't care what order it happens in!

MoY - we've both been playing the game long enough to know that anything can happen, but not necessarily in the next half hour!

For me it seems highly likely that something theatrical will happen. There is around 6-weeks between the respective presentation dates. What is BP being forced into a corner & having to update on/actually commit to doing - a reduction of capital expenditure and as a consequence at least lowering the debt acceleration, lowering of buybacks which appear untenable at the current level, lowering the dividend would not win many friends, change of focus to emphasis on oil & gas (already announced), a focus on growth (but bear in mind the necessity of cutting capital expenditure does not sit easily with growth ambitions), non new strategy divestments need to start to take place & sales need to drive debt down.

At some point the failure of the Looney years has to be addressed publicly, the treading water same old, same old, that share holders have come to expect of the Auchinloss reign has to be explained and justified rationally, and a bold new strategy that goes back to BP's roots has to be put into action convincingly & delivered to an aggressive timescale.

Sawan has brought his Capital Markets Day in New York forward by 3-months to the 25th March 2025. Is this just to say that his cost-cutting sprint has worked, his focus on oil and gas is working & any refinements to his overall strategy are on track. I certainly don't think so, I am convinced that he has been working so hard on cutting overlaps, and is going to announce the acquisition/merger that will define his tenure at Shell.

MoY - the plot thickens! The tectonic plates are shifting!

The issue with February's corporate strategy statement is that it is still a distance away. When everyone is clamouring for clarity, simplification and directed robust action, the situation with BP's likelihood of remaining as a proud British independent company is festering and stagnating.

Dividends and buybacks are being funded partially from debt. Short term this fine, , if BP is focussed on the reasoning for this temporary measure, but in the medium term it is the route to selling off assets, and ultimately ruin! Auchinloss has had his hand on the tiller since Looney left in September 2023. In approaching 18-months what will he have achieved. Did he classically as a new CEO set strategic direction, get any bad news out of the way early on, or hit the ground running, has he hit any milestones on the plan! He appears to be just a Journeyman.

Likely nothing much will have happened in the 18-months of the Auchinloss tenure by February! But more valuable time will have been used up! The PR disaster has continued! More good money has been thrown at low-return business ventures! The markets and financial institutions have built up a gathering feeding frenzy of demand that something, even anything will manifest itself as some sort of action or strategic direction coming out of BP! Is a corporate pulse detectable!

Equinor and Shell will each hold a 50 percent stake in the new JV company - which will be the largest producer of oil and gas in the North Sea. Whether the Viaro agreement will even survive in its present form, or at all, has yet to be determined.

Selene might just be a makeweight in the bigger picture, & number one priority of working out a fair and agreed 50:50 split with Equinor.

Mixed messages: on the same day BP announces the following

BP collaborates with JERA to create global offshore wind joint venture

BP to significantly reduce green energy investment

Clueless PR!!!!

Predictions of EU Gas shortages - European politicians thought two mild winters were judgement rather than pure luck. And forgot that the windmills don't turn when the wind doesn't blow, and solar panels are less effective when there is less sun in the winter and they are often covered in snow:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Depletes-Gas-Inventories-At-Fastest-Rate-in-Six-Years-Ahead-of-Winter.html

It might be interesting if Wael Sawan is not just betting on expanding Shell's already significant gas interests. but trying out a JV relationship with Norway's Equinor in the North Sea as a prelude to something bigger - Equinor is already providing 30% of Europe's gas.

Predictions of EU Gas shortages - European politicians thought two mild winters were judgement rather than pure luck. And forgot that the windmills don't turn when the wind doesn't blow, and solar panels are less effective when there is less sun in the winter and they are often covered in snow:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Depletes-Gas-Inventories-At-Fastest-Rate-in-Six-Years-Ahead-of-Winter.html

It might be interesting if Wael Sawan is not just betting on expanding Shell's already significant gas interests. but trying out a JV relationship with Norway's Equinor in the North Sea as a prelude to something bigger - Equinor is already providing 30% of Europe's gas.

WP - great post, we are looking at New Year, NO STRATEGY!!! Inept, absence of fiduciary duty as directors as the SP has been tumbling towards extinction!!!

The situation is screaming out for competent management and strategic direction. If the Board cannot do it then we have reached the point where someone else will!!!!

The only issues I have with Javier Blas's assessment are that this situation with BP has not suddenly arisen out of the blue. The storm has been gathering since Looney left in September 2023. Also he describes Shell exiting the Permian shale assets as a mistake. NO - this perspective would have to assume that Sawan had little idea that of the dynamics & profitability of the Permian assets, which were booming and would continue to do so as the US Election approached & oil output was maximised. They were sold most probably because Sawan was looking at strategic fit in the event of a takeover of BP, and what Government inspired sell-offs would be necessary! Business is about slaying your favourite children!

Probably Blas is well aware that the situation with BP has not just suddenly arisen, buy it is a case of CYA!

I am not sure that Deltic Energy/Clough Resources has ever been in this position before, with a real share of a very valuable project that has now moved on to the next stage. The issue now is, exactly when a reasonably accurate assessment of value and the level of commercial viability that can be achieved.

Also will Selene be sold to Viaro by Shell or become part of the Equinor joint venture!

Email,

You have done the right thing checking this out. I've not had anything personally or even heard of them previously. Always watch for the scam contacts at Christmas and New Year, often just after brokers and institutions have broken up for the holidays, so that it is difficult to check them out.

Often if you Google the name of the company & insert "scam or suspect" in the search something will come up! Also raise the issue on the thread as you have done, there are some great posters. I am sure Littleaston or Larry Livingstone would be happy to help but there are many more.

Https://www.fca.org.uk/news/warnings/dalton-bailey-associates-llp

If it sounds like blx it probably is:

https://brokerchooser.com/safety/dalton-bailey-associates-llp-broker-safe-or-scam