Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Still to receive dividend from hl
It’ll be interesting to see when OP does break the red trend here: https://invst.ly/144pd4
For Brent, the price region around $87 has been a potential ceiling since 2018, when it marked the onset of US shale overproduction and the crash in price that resulted. Things have changed since then but global events have, as they always will, disrupted the natural demand/supply balance that OPEC+ seeks to optimise and control. Once the price rises above $90 it usually triggers a sharp increase in production somewhere (the US would almost certainly be one area to react) which tends to put a lid on it.
FT view on effects of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries on OP:
https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c
With the Yemen and Gaza war spreading it is only a matter of time before it escalates to Iran.
Oil price will be over $100 dollars a barrel by the 4th quarter…
Nearly back up to my last sale price on 4th November 2022.
Unlikely to sell anymore this side of £30 without a further low priced purchase (under £20)
What’s the reasoning and correlation between petrol prices and whether people vote for Biden?
Is that how people decided who to vote for in America?
US Gasoline Prices rising:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rising-Gasoline-Prices-Bring-Bad-News-for-Biden.html
Re: XOM. Exxon have explicitly committed to zero green initiatives. A lot of debt investors couldn’t buy their bonds because of that stance but the equity clearly benefited vis a vis BP. XON knew that oil was cheap in 2020 and invested heavily at the bottom.
I am on my phone so difficult to do a full explanation with figures but:
Biden is juicing the bayjesus out of the US. GDP is growing at 4% (vs 0 here) a year because the budget deficit is 6% of gdp. Gov debt to gdp is 129% vs c.100% here
US is reshoring manufacturing.
UK still suffering from Brexit loss of trade.
But most importantly- 85% of US households own shares. There is a deep and active stock market which policy makers will do anything to support .
The UK mainly holds savings in Pensions and Insurance which has its hands tied by regulations to hold a lot of “safe” bonds… how did that work out in Sep-22 ?
The US also has some of the most innovative companies in the world. We have Oil and Banks.
Performance and discipline..
It was another strong year for Shell. One highlight for me was QGC in Australia, which had its highest ever liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in the fourth quarter and delivered its 1,000th LNG cargo.
Another was the strong operational performance in our deep-water portfolio. Completing the acquisition of Nature Energy, which expanded the range of low-carbon energy we can offer, also stood out.
Cash flow from operations for 2023 of around $54 billion was the second-highest in our history, income was around $20 billion and Adjusted Earnings* around $28 billion. Our performance enabled us to return $23 billion to shareholders* through $15 billion in share buybacks and $8 billion in dividends. This is 42%* of cash flow from operations (CFFO) and around the upper end of our 30-40% of CFFO through the cycle target range.
We continue to be disciplined in our investments, focusing on where we can have the maximum impact in generating value or lowering emissions. In 2023, cash capital expenditure* of $24 billion was at the lower end of our $23-27 billion range
The FX rates have moved against us slightly since announced.
The Dividend payable is 26.90p as per conversion. (34.40c)
The last payment was 26.31p (33.10c)
With a slightly stronger pound, hardly much of a rise.
Can anyone give us a reason why US oilies are outperforming over UK ones?
Though I have also compared US house builders which have outperformed versus UK
KBH Home ( biggest house builder $5.2bn), has grown 196% in 5yrs since.
BDEV has lost 21% same period of time.
It seems to be all US equities have outperformed !
Why is this?
The US equities do carry a lower yield, like 1.7% for KBHome, and i have pointed this out many times that uk equities are underperforming due to high yields v US counterparts.
Views please..
Thus also applies to oilies as well.
XOM +750% plus dividends( USA)
SHEL 144% plus dividends in that period
BP. 320% plus dividends
CVX. 700% plus dividend's (USA)
Is it the weakness of the dollar that’s aiding this?
It’s an option that was considered during the move away from NL. CEO is open to reconsider I expect if the investment community do not respond in an appropriate way if the commitments at Capital Market Day are delivered.
The US Government has a different view on the energy transition and the market in the Us tend to see value differently to the UK it seems.
Stepping back from the North Sea is more political tha bottom line driven, the volumes and Revenue from this small portion of the Shell portfolio is small.
It’s an option spidered s considered during the move away from NL. CEO is open to reconsider I expect if the investment community do not respond in an appropriate way if the commitments at Capital Market Day are delivered.
Stepping back from the North Sea is more political tha bottom line driven, the volumes and Revenue from this small portion of the Shell portfolio is small.
As much as I would live to see them fully listed/domiciled in US, I doubt it. I understand the EPL robbery applies to anybody operating in the North Sea, regardless of domicile.
Shell may then leave the North Sea, but I think Labour will strike a very careful balance (just ignore all the election drivel). A lot of Labour voters are employed in that exact industry.
Apologies if this has already been discussed, but after listening to Reeves re the EPL, found the below link and wonder would SHEL ever leave the UK or at least move domicile
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/547509/labour-windfall-tax-oil-gas/
Chinese Demand and Geopolitical Risks - Impact on OP:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Geopolitical-Risk-and-Chinese-Demand-Could-Boost-Oil-Prices.html
Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Lifts-Production-in-February.html
Excellent move. This has been in the doldrums for a while now. Like you, I have a pile of them, and looking to offload a pile of them.
All the buybacks have done is stopped it falling too much, and that's it. Brokers targets are dreamers targets.
Where will you invest the proceeds, that is the question.
Sold a nice 30k here today for a big profit. Still holding with many, many shares left for the future.