Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Thanks tep1
I don’t think you’ve missed a great top-up opportunity yet, EnglishmanAbroad.
I’ve not seen a bounce either - other than the very brief trading swing on Monday when I decided to take a small punt. The daily chart is still heading down at pace:
https://invst.ly/12z3uf
Interestingly. the sp is continuing downwards whilst OP has been travelling the opposite way since Monday afternoon, as this 15’ trading view shows:
https://invst.ly/12z3wz
As I’ve said: I’m looking for more definite signs of a reversal (ie breakout from the red trend) before contemplating a further buy. I think it may be headed for the lower blue here:
https://invst.ly/12z407 , which would place it around 2390 currently or possibly even lower. The update obviously wasn’t well received by the market and the coincidental OP news (KSA price cut) appears to have masked the immediate reaction.
Pressure on Brent and looks to continue downwards... I am shall manifest a contrary upward move and an increase in SP
Wti 73
Brent 78
Gas ttf 31
uk 78.5
Well 25,00 has now gone and the sp dipped to 24.60 this morning, is the uplift since the infamous dead-cat bounce or have I just missed a great top up opportunity?
I doubt that Biden will 'subsidise' oil production, Clued. The shale guys are doing alright and serving his purpose without any help.
WTI at $65 would do the trick politically- something of a 'sweet spot' I reckon, with Brent around $5 higher at $70+ , which is enough to support the sp at a base level of 2250-2300.
It's worth bearing in mind that January tends to be (but isn't always) a seasonal low period for OP.
Trends, by definition, take time to establish.
Shel’s current short-term trend - which is naturally related to global markets, OP and company specific news - is currently downward as this ‘15 minute’ trading style chart illustrates: https://invst.ly/12yi98
Although I added at around 2520 yesterday, I did so in the entirely prospective anticipation that the sp would find support around 2500: https://invst.ly/12yk4a .
2480 may yet hold but, being well into trading profit this financial year with Shel, I won’t be adding any more unless I see a credible reversal at an attractive lower price.
Of course, Boyobach, what will happen if Biden starts a subsidy scheme to support shale producers in the face of lower oil prices because he wants them at an optimal low price for his Pres Campaign but not so low that they'll materially reduce shale production ? Will the KSA reduce oil prices more thereby hurting the KSA more as their desired oil price is in the late USD80's ?
Yesterday’s fall in sp tightly tracked the drop in OP, https://invst.ly/12y4sy
at a ratio of approximately 33x (sp £ to OP $) and also coincided with Shel’s slightly disappointing Q4 update note. The sp ratio to OP is currently very similar to the price relationship at the end of 2019, when KSA were cutting OP to put pressure on US Shale producers.
https://invst.ly/12y49n
Of course, COVID then struck - so the 2020 portion of the chart is not indicative of what we can expect in 2024. However it does suggest that Shel might drop to around 2240 if Brent continues to fall to $68.
Here’s an end of day chart link that works:
https://invst.ly/12xw8d
The gap did nearly fill (6p of it remains) as the day progressed but the price ultimately closed below the longer term red and green trends. As is fairly obvious, a drop below 24.50 opens up the possibility of a deeper fall
Oil is volatile stuff and a new price war seems to be starting - remember what this did to Shel’s sp last time?
Only on Friday an article in Talkmarkets was saying:
‘As global tensions escalate in the Middle East, the oil market is experiencing a surge in prices,’
Yet yesterday the story had swung to this:
‘The downswing comes after Saudi Arabia reduced the February official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia, pushing it down to the lowest level in 27 months. The action followed growing supply and competition with rival producers.
“Oil watchers are rightly questioning that the kingdom’s cut is not only aimed at quelling interference from non-OPEC supply [ ie US Shale] but from its very own cartel membership.” – said PVM’s John Evans. ‘
The fact is that, contrary to cartel policy, some OPEC producers have increased supply , whilst US production is also threatening OPEC’s control over OP. Three weeks ago Bloomberg reported:
‘OPEC’s one-time nemesis — US shale — is rearing its head just months after the sector was all but written off as a threat to the cartel’s sway over worldwide oil markets. Drillers from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Bakken Shale of North Dakota have ramped up oil production well beyond what analysts foresaw, pushing output to a record just as OPEC and its allies put the brakes on supplies in a bid to arrest price declines.’
Alliance News UK Market Close today:
The oil major said the impairments for the most recent quarter are driven by portfolio choices, such as its Singapore Chemicals & Productions assets, which Reuters had reported Shell plans to sell by the end of 2024.
Meanwhile, oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday due to Saudi Arabia cutting prices coupled with rising Opec output, outweighing upward price pressure amid geopolitical jitters in the Middle East, Danske Bank said.
What does Alliance mean 'impairments for the most recent quarter are driven by portfolio choices, such as its Singapore Chemicals & Productions assets' ? Surely not an excuse though for bad accounting.
Also, I thought OPEC had cut production so why an increase ?
Sorry about the dud link - it looks like a problem at Investing.com and may be temporary.
This morning's gap down presented a nice top-back-up opportunity as it's virtually certain to get filled:
https://invst.ly/12xjqt
Shown here, the sp is also near the bottom of both red and green trends and the EMA had just crossed into 'buy' mode before the drop - forcing it back down. It's always worth keeping some powder dry, of course.
Thanks..this looks good...I tend to trade seldom on my sipp so a per trade cost is preferable to a %
I'm not a big fan of platforms that charge a percentage, i prefer to pay a flat rate take a look at ii
https://www.ii.co.uk/ii-accounts/sipp/sipp-charges
It all depends how much you have in you pot of course
Quick question...I have my SIPP with HL..approx cost 0.5% per year. If you dont mind, pls share details if you get a better deal than this.
The graphs really tell a story of how effective Wael Sawan's strategy has been over the first year of his tenure. I think this will be further bolstered by a repeated 15% increase in the dividend announced with the Q4 results for 2023 on the 1st February 2024.
I bought some BP shares as well at the turn of the year, like you, because they look to be at the bottom of their travel, & also because speculation is intensifying over a merger with or takeover by Shell. BP is very vulnerable on several fronts, and with the recent takeover activity in the industry, now could be perfect timing for a predator. Apart from some Call Options i have never held BP shares directly since Maggie's privatisation in 1979 - where has the 45-years gone I ask myself!
And they're off - but slowly:
The last two short market weeks have passed without much to talk about regarding Shel, the other majors or OP - the latter is down by about a $1 and the others remain fairly flat compared to Friday 22nd close. https://invst.ly/12wuwe
Regarding Casapino's post - I've always appreciated their comments btw - I think an annual review is the very least that market investors need to do. Shares need to be managed and a close watch kept at all times IMV, whilst reviewing strategy and performance at this time of year is good . Always bearing in mind that each company's end of year report is another marker. I'm sticking with Shel - which is so far delivering better than my recent dip into BP.
Since early Nov, I have put the proceeds of some of my Shel trades into BP, figuring that, after a relatively poor spell, BP was due an increase. Well it will be nice if/when it happens, although it should be noted that both UK co’s had a better year sp-wise than their US cousins, presumably a reflection of the dividend gradually being restored to pre-2020 levels:
https://invst.ly/12wvb5
(for what it’s worth, i.e. probably not a lot)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b75077c7-c28c-4a6b-afcf-cb978ed28d3d
We are sadly at the very very bottom of the table in payouts…
Hopefully dividend will increase this year….
Plenty of oil and gas here.....
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/shell-shel-secures-natural-gas-production-license-in-venezuela