Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I don't think anyone picked up on this but it is an interesting question.
Current buyback is $3.5bn and there are just over 6.4bn shares (down from 8.3bn in July 2018). So the buyback is about $0.55 per share. Divi is $0.34 per share.
So if all money was distributed to shareholders as dividends, it would be about $0.89 per quarter, which is $3.56 per annum (or £2.85 at £1=$1.25) = about 10% of current share price
No wonder they think Shell is undervalued
I sincerely hope that Swann and Somerton are meeting today to negotiate a solution to this mess. Both have been crucial to Chill's resurrection and I think that both will be crucial for its future. The most obvious way out seems to be to meet Swann half way and replace either Russo or Taylor with one of Swann's team. Legal action that results in either Callum leaving or a guy influencing a quarter of the shares being pushed outside the tent is in no one's best interest. If anyone here really does have Callum's ear, tell him to be sensible and negotiate
Hi NSS
We had a brief discussion about buybacks a while ago.
Maybe the fact that the company working on behalf of Shell chose to buy back over 5 million shares on Thursday (5,099,257 to be precise) and only 68,654 on Friday had something to do with the price marching up on Thursday and back down again on Friday.
I imagine that the buyback programme will get back into full swing from Monday in which case I reckon your 26.45 buy will prove to be a good decision
That said, the recent drop in oil prices probably didn't help either
Good luck anyway
It all depends on your definition of "much" but the number sure goes down
In Sept 2018, Shell had just over 8.3 billion shares (A and B combined) in issue. At the end of Sept 2023 the number was just over 6.6 billion
In Sept 2023, almost 20 million shares were bought back and cancelled.
You can follow progress on https://www.shell.com/investors/information-for-shareholders/share-buybacks.html
The only real question is why is the dividend lower now than in 2018 given the huge reduction in number of shares...
Just sawa tweet about this and looked at the website. There are now 4 brands in addition to Chill on chill.com
The website is also much easier to navigate with a drop-down menu for the brands.
There seems to be real progress here now. I wonder if all these new brands would not have warranted an RNS but maybe it is sufficient that they were already mentioned previously
Just waiting for the official vapes launch now but this is gradually improving all the time
I have been invested in this share for a long time because of the Australian assets. In the past, every time that Mosman has started to communicate a lot and enthusiastically, a placing has followed. I really really hope that it will be different this time and that organic growth will mean financing new project from current assets. We will see
Yeah these young CEOs are always such a disaster....like that guy Zuckerberg
I seem to see things differently to a lot of others here which probably means I have it wrong……
I currently have 13,210 shares in an ISA thankfully, so no CGT worries.
Those shares currently produce a dividend of £2,912 per annum.
Post consolidation I will have 10,040 shares. The company suggests (subject to confirmation etc) that the dividend will be increased to 31p. If so, I will then get a dividend of £3,112 per annum.
AND I will have cash of £13,433.
At an SP of £4.35, my current 13,210 shares yield just over 5%. At the same SP, my new 10,040 shares would yield 7.13%.
I am quite happy to hang in and get 7% per annum. However, in the past Aviva’s yield has rarely been 7%, so it is quite possible that the SP will rise.
I guess the proof of the pudding will come in October when the interims are announced. Will the dividend be increased in line with the new annual rate of 31p or not?
If I am missing something here, please help!!
I agree with you Hitman. As far as I can see the situation is roughly as follows:
Assume the SP is £4 for the sake of argument. The dividend is 22.05p = 5.5%.
They give you a quid and consolidate the shares. Assume you had 100 shares to start with. Original value £400, consolidated value £300 plus £100 cash. No obvious gain (or loss)
BUT on 2 March (see the Results announcement RNS), Aviva said that the dividend would increase to 31.5p in 2022.
If the SP stays at £4, the dividend return would increase to 7.85%. If this happens it would already be a major gain but I don’t think the SP would stay at this level.
To get the percent return back to 5.5% the SP would have to increase to about £5.70
Be interesting to see the combination of SP and divi% that finally emerges
Hi Dave, Good to rehearse again all that this company has going for it. I already have a big (for me) holding here and was going to add this year's ISA allowance when the price began to drop so I am holding fire for now until it stabilises. I fully intend to buy the shares so I am grateful to whoever is selling and pushing the price down. My only worry is timing because I have a feeling that once this starts on the journey back up, it may move rather fast because I suspect that there may be a number of people like me. We shall see - in any event, I am now just curious to see the figures in July, not that they will be the be-all and end-all for me because I realise that this is going to take a few years to mature. The other thing I would add is that I recently had to contact customer service in the UK about an issue and they were so helpful and professional that my faith in the company rose even higher.
Brilliant, thanks Bellers. Just used the code for 2 packs of tropical gummies and it worked fine.
OK thanks, looks like I had better join that group
I agree with you guys that this is a great funding arrangement that hugely strengthens the company going forward. Someone said yesterday that it would be tough to break £1 – I can’t help feeling that if this news had broken when the SP was not close to £1, the effect would have been different. In any case, if people wish to sell in the 90s and drive the SP back into the 80s, I will definitely top up further. Otherwise the SP is today more or less what it was yesterday when I last topped up so I will wait for now (I should add that I am not expecting to get my 80s price).
Does anyone have the latest state of play on the IG shorts, and others? Given the company’s new found financial strength, I can’t see what choice they have but to close out (or pray very hard).
GLA, DYOR etc etc
Hi Craigy, I have followed your journey on this share with interest and I'm glad that things have worked out for you. Actually our two stories are fairly similar - like you I bought in to the old HNR and watched the price collapse to 3p. I was nearly suicidal then and nearly sold out - I think if I had sold out, I definitely would be suicidal now. Watching this recover has been amazing, and I have been tempted to add more on the way up.
I was actually thanking Bigkahuna though because this morning he posted the following:
"IG was short 31% on Thursday, 30% on Friday and 29% today. So the smarter shorters are starting to buy back, still probably 4m shares short so a lot more buying to come from them. Every short is losing money now, some a lot of money. I am still buying."
I was already thinking of buying more, but that info on the shorts did it for me. I had expected the SP to rise as those poor b's buy back; I hadn't expected the joy of another holding RNS
Good luck to us all, although I don't think any more luck is needed with this share - it really does seem to be just a question of patience
Thanks for this info - it persuaded me to add another 20,000 shares this morning at 99.44. Of course, I wasn't expecting another holding RNS!! Where do you get your info on the shorts? I can't believe that people have still not closed given where this share is heading. Thanks again!!
Hi Matt, Well I see we last chatted on 10 Feb when you had just bought some for 80 and I got lucky at got some at 78. That trade increased my average price quite a bit but of course I wish now I had gone further. In any case, you were right then that the price difference didn't matter much long run. This is the only share I have where I feel comfortable averaging up. It is such a unique opportunity. As many people have said, CBD is now all the rage but when you compare ZOE with new IPO start-ups, it's men vs the boys. So max price, I'm not sure there is one. It's just how much you are prepared to risk. My own biggest problem is avoiding the huge temptation to sell everything else and put my whole portfolio into here. Of course if I had done that on 10 Feb, I would be laughing now.....Best of luck whatever you decide...SC
According to londonstockexch.... site, someone has just bought 675k shares at 80p a pop for a total of £540k. How is that even possible without the SP exploding????? I assume it has to be a buy given the SP and other trades at the time.
Unfortunately the last RNS said: "The extension of the Longstop Date, at which time the Offer lapses if any of the Conditions have not been satisfied by such date..." so I have a nasty feeling that, that is that.
All those dreams of NY wheels.....
Hi Karv
I have (for me) quite a big holding in AV and like you I am concerned about the GT risk. However, I am hopeful that the sale of the AV France business to Macif (or Aéma as they are now called) does change things quite significantly.
The RNS states:
“…a specific indemnity agreement in respect of the 'known price' contracts, written by Abeille Vie between 1989 and 1997, that would share the risk in the unlikely scenarios of certain costs in respect of these contracts rising above Aviva France's already appropriate existing provisions.”
Note that AV UK does not take on all the excess risk but shares it with Macif although the % shares are not specified here (maybe they are elsewhere?).
In any event, I suppose that the French courts and even more so the politicians would be very reluctant to see a contract like this bankrupt a major French insurer. I also assume that it is not in the interest of the policy holder to bankrupt them either. So I guess that a pragmatic solution will eventually be found with the guy being bought off for some amount. As long as he continues to argue that all he wants is for his contract to be honoured, I think that this will just drag through the French courts (which are notoriously slow at the best of times) in Jarndyce and Jarndyce fashion and unless he has incredibly deep pockets, at some point he will want to settle.
All IMVHO of course.
What I can’t understand is what induced AV ever to taken on these contracts in the first place. Hopefully whoever did (or rather didn’t do) the due diligence has been shot