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They might be KG, there was a big spike last Friday too as if some buying going on.
Maybe some are dealing off book.
@HV, think you are on to something. I am surprised why the funds waited till the last day to get this completed; it will turn out to be a damp squib if that's the case.. I had started raising my hopes for an II raising a stake!
KG, I believe today was the last day of rebalancing for the indices. Could explain the high volume
Correct me if I am wrong but never have I seen a UT of 14m, not even on result days.. something's brewing
could be the seller finally done now; either way we should start moving up
Crooks
The company does not go into the market to purchase shares which it awards to its executives. It simply issues new shares to its executives thereby increasing the total number of shares in issue.
That explains why the price has touched and rebounded from 49p. It was the share purchase to the director. Probably fall from here now, especially if he sells them all, like i expect him to, for bullsh*t reasons like tax obligations.
My personal view is this needs to break 50p with strong momentum and high volume otherwise more pain short term. It’s critical it pushes past 50p but if it can the upside would move quickly. Once again no 50p break and the downside continues
But the main point you seem to have forgotten is the BOD's of MCG like many other company BOD's is that they are in this for themselves and not the shareholders.
They just don't care what happens to us, and once you come to terms of that life is a little more simple to live with.
Just found this - CEO of WedriveU has been interviewed on a podcast called Transport Unplugged! Haven’t had chance to listen yet but could shed some light into how they are fairing….
🎙️🚍🚐 WeDriveU's CEO Erick Van Wagenen is on the new episode of Transit Unplugged talking with our friend Paul Comfort about our growth, rebranding National Express Transit, and innovations that make transportation contracting so appealing for transit agencies, universities and employers. From EVs to best practices, Paul packs a lot into their conversation on his award-winning podcast.
Found it on Spotify and will listen when get chance over the weekend - https://open.spotify.com/show/4bamX20yCJNFG0QaudNTNT?si=lEpNNp5JR9C7YAcD8e7Ztg
Is just maybe he is so astute he has timed the bottom for the sp, really is a pi55 take though.
Started: John33, Today 10:59
Last post: John33, Today 10:59
No surprise he hasn't dipped his hand into own pocket, no risk to himself with all the potential upside thrown in for free, one big jolly, gravy train. I hope he doesn't come asking the mullered shareholders to dip into their pocket.
Started: Uvton, 19 Jun 2024 15:41
Last post: jamrock, 20 Jun 2024 07:34
Surely this close to bottom!
The price has been eroded since the pandemic
Edit my error on rereading: they can’t bid less than the highest price they paid in the last 12 months
They can’t bid lower than the lowest price they paid in the last 12 months so they would have to wait until this time next year to bid 50p. If we are still at 50p in a year then things are not going to look good anyways
Its in the best interests for the cosmens if this goes into the 30s - they'll let it happen, then take the company for 50p a share. Wouldn't be surprised if they're lending their bought shares to a shorter
Mandatory bid has to be made at 30pct shareholding - mandatory in UK
gla dyor etc
Started: Gwillerz79, 19 Jun 2024 17:35
Last post: Gwillerz79, 19 Jun 2024 17:35
Qube below 0.5% now
Started: John33, 19 Jun 2024 09:17
Last post: HopelessValue, 19 Jun 2024 13:04
The FTSE UK Index Series is reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. Any constituent changes will be implemented after the close of business on the third Friday of the review month (i.e. effective Monday).
So hopefully the selling pressure should be over post this Friday
For me we would be much better focusing on one core market and doing it well. Either sell off whole US and UK , pay off some debt and reinvest in Alsa to further grow and diversify with the European network where management can really deliver or sell off UK and Alsa and focus, invest and list in US. Either one would deliver great returns and a better managed and valued business. Why wait years for macros, contract renegotiation, refinancing, etc… the problem I see is a geographically diversified business which hasn’t got sufficient scale or capital or management ability to do well in all markets at once. Focus and grow on what you’re good at or in the us where there are huge opportunities for growth and a financial system to back that opportunity. We are going to languish around trying to do all things averagely and without the capital to deliver.
Just closed my eyes and bought some more Mobico. I think alot of recent pressure must have been related to it being kicked out of the FTSE 250. And all other things equal it should bounce back after. Good that Chairwoman and Cosmen have bought.
Does anyone know when its actually going out of FTSE 250 and how many shares for sale as a result? I think Friday, and I think at least £50mln but I'm really not sure. Hard to get the facts.
Poker - fair point and I have been saying on this board for some time that MCG is and will be subject to the macro vagaries until/when some positive news filters through which is not for some time yet, so the shorts have free reign to do as they please in the meantime.
gl dyor etc
Carrington
I dont believe the markets have any interest in the MCAP right now , myself
I think now, it is merely about making profits trading the share price , and right now with Mobico falling out of the FTSE350 and interest rates (SONIA) still stubborn , plus election nerves etc ... means it is just plain easy for the likes of Marshall Wace to make hay whilst the sun shines.
I will be interested to see how the markets are after the end of month pension fund account adjustments, and the quarterly Options end , and depending on the elections in France and UK ...then turning sentiment and thought towards focusing on interest rate cuts
Here of course there are just very few Fund Managers even looking at this company right now.....
The current share price does of course put some pressure on the BOD to see through the task of the US Bus sale and the projects to extract costs from the business ....so... a little pressure in that sense is probably no bad thing
ATB
Started: John33, 19 Jun 2024 09:03
Last post: JG68, 19 Jun 2024 09:30
Surely if there were any doubts with regards the financial reporting / accounts they would have been flagged up during the delay earlier this year?
After all they're signed off by auditors, they're can't be anything major hidden can there?
John - We can only speculate, but if it was me going into that role I too would push the reporting date back to go through everything with a fine tooth comb. While financial reporting standards are well standardised, the data and processes are always different and it takes time to understand. Further with the previous sh*t show under the previous CFO, I would be going into that role with a massive degree of doubt over the quality of the information the management accountants were handing me.
When you look at the full year results below and the breakdown of profit/loss - who would actually want to buy the American business when it is showing a 60pct loss year on year? - the only business making a profit is Alsa and that is the only reason the Cosmans still have skin in the game, in order to bock a low ball bid or purchase outright (if they can stump up the funds that is?) - the sale of the US business will hinge on a complete turnaround which will only be shown when MGC updates or if they release news to the market saying business has picked up - until then it will continue on the downward spiral according to the macro of the day and whatever pressure shorts can apply - all imho.
ALSA
136.8
103.9
31.7%
121.0
(170.2)
171.1%
North America
27.1
68.4
(60.4)%
(7.1)
12.7
(155.4)%
UK & Germany
23.7
43.2
(45.1)%
(98.8)
10.3
(1,059.2)%
I'm concerned to why decide on a date 4 wks later than normal which is unheard for this stock although scheduled/notified, unlike the unscheduled delay to the FY2023 results.
If there was further material red ink/impairments surely they would have to notify with RNS as and when they became aware.
CFO to do a kitchen sink to cover own ar5e who knows?
The later date just gives more room/momentum for the drift to continue unless macros change for the better.
Just continue to pummel to the sell side until something changes for the better.
Started: Jcj07, 19 Jun 2024 07:07
Last post: Hindy86, 19 Jun 2024 09:02
You have exactly the same opportunity as the shorts do
Learn to short
Or cosmens will eventually take this private in the low 20s if we are lucky.
That would ne great result for them/
It’s been a total disaster here and unfortunately momentum is everything
But some of us have had very poor low interest rates on savings at 0.25%-0.50%, so for me I would like to see 5% + for the next year.
Although after hearing Starmer on the Radio Labour look like they are going to tax your savings, now that won't go down well.
Low 20s by end of year. Shorters have won.
No one wants the US business . Maybe sold for a massive loss.
Administration next year.
Value of mobico at end of next year is £0.00
Started: tedboat, 18 Jun 2024 16:32
Last post: Hindy86, 19 Jun 2024 06:06
Nah most are right my stats are there in black and white I win more than I lose. The thing is it’s not my ta you should be going off. I’m not even good at it (Yet)If you seen someone good it would blow your mind.
You’d be taking all the family photos down around the house and putting chart patterns up 😆
@Hindy: i say this with upmost respect but so far most of your TA predictions have been incorrect. It could be the sceptic in me but it all feels like jiggery-pokery to me
Hv correct the main mover of markets at the minute according to Bloomberg terminal is momentum
That is all it is, the winners are expected to keep winning the losers are expected to keep losing
Do you see what I mean now about t.a and being able to find these key levels
As for bottom its usually a process and it’s not even started yet imo
Might get a little bounce but should just be setting it up for a deeper pull…..time will tell
Jesus ted you snowflake
Your average is 90p
Some have averages well into 3 figures
HV
I'm waiting for anyone to respond to your question too, you asked yesterday also.
Started: John33, 17 Jun 2024 22:26
Last post: TheGhostofBZW, 18 Jun 2024 19:14
I will check tomorrow to make sure these 3 exactly similar trades haven't been reduced to a single buy
Tomorrow is .....
Juneteenth is a holiday commemorating the end of slavery in the United States. It is also called Emancipation Day or Juneteenth Independence Day. The name “Juneteenth” references the date of the holiday, combining the words “June” and “nineteenth.
so Wall Street is closed let's see what happens
By the way that City wire post just states what "we" on here already knew but "educates " the wider audience of the potential recovery "green shoots"
Yesterday and today 3 large buys just after close, yesterday 840000 ish, today 440000 ish.
It's fair to assume that these are buys given the price on both days.
If 'an event' (and I was speaking in negative terms) took place then the board would have to issue an RNS. The reality is as you say, shorter plus maybe a seller. More are being bought than sold daily at the moment with large transfers at auction. So, if there is no increase in short reported today (for yesterday), I imagine there is a seller. It may well be as a result of the 250 dropout and the shorts knowing that, piled in.
At the same time, Systematica are way up on their short and may well want to cash in sub 50 you'd think.
Given your comment @josey, I don't understand that if an event took place and the SP is declining because of that, it would be illegal due to insider training?
My thoughts are primarily it is due to an increase in shorters, but this cycle will turn once they hit their targets or any inkling of positive news.
As @Hopeless has stated, it is giving me increased confidence that an established family like Cosmens are increasing their stake here.
Or I can hope that a significant offer can come in. The CityAM article states '“We believe the increase in the family’s shareholding reflects a combination of seeking a blocking minority position to prevent a low-ball takeover offer, and taking advantage of the depressed share price,” Liberum analyst Gerald Khoo said in a note."
The other thing to add is that there's been no RNS from any large holders running for the door. They had 163m cash at end of last year ... treading water against 2022. The Q1 update showed increased revenue which should be at the conversion rate they usually maintain....it's really quite baffling how the SP has now brought the MCAP down to 0.75 times EBITDA. It's almost behaving like some event has occurred and it's going to the wall.
Started: helloDave, 18 Jun 2024 18:17
Last post: helloDave, 18 Jun 2024 18:17
Price has found its floor, and the directors and main company owners are loading up on shares.
still a nice short position to be closed, would expect Marshall Wallace to start buying to clear their 1.3%
the company is in profit, they will sell of NA Bus soon, and have a great transport network.
However if the BoD wants to sell the whole company for £2b I would be okay with that.
Wace toasted on Hl
Why would cosmens buy now if they thought it was going to 10 20 p etc
They will know and they want their baby alsa which is stronger than ever
Shorts will be working together until 1 breaks cover
Started: lse2000, 18 Jun 2024 13:23
Last post: BrokeNSmoke, 18 Jun 2024 13:46
Less than 2 weeks ago you were telling people to buy under 53p because it will soon hit 60p!!! Nothing has changed in that time period except a sentiment shift on the US rates front....
One has to assume you have swapped from long to short here?
Many US bus company in the past went into administration. Therefore I still see the same happening with Mobico. Since 2022 they had been struggling with no signs of turnaround. No improvements except losses and debt going up and they are too high that they cannot even sustain without miracle..
Share price is reflecting that with fall going to happen to 30's level I think..
DYOR
Good luck!
Started: Gwillerz79, 18 Jun 2024 08:05
Last post: Gwillerz79, 18 Jun 2024 08:05
Sorry not sure if this has been posted
https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmidlands/news/2087400-bus-fares-to-rise-as-industry-struggles-to-meet-rising-costs
Not Looking Good,, Need to drop below 40p for buyers to return,, but even then it won't last,, https://www.thesun.ie/health/13190126/visiting-tallaght-hospital-banned-covid-norovirus/
Not Looking Good,, Need to drop below 40p ,,Tallaght Hospital bans visitors due to Covid and Norovirus outbreaks https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/tallaght-hospital-bans-visitors-due-29371805
Started: ForwardThoughts, 17 Jun 2024 20:58
Last post: Moneymule888, 17 Jun 2024 22:13
I had about £1800 in there which I’ve since made back by the bucket on HeliumOne. But I’ll let the pokerchips put me over the coals for asking a question about CGT losses over there…
Whatever makes him feel good holding this absolute dog if low margin, high interest, high debt d4e dog in MCG. Encouraging people to take punts on this is incredibly disgusting. It’s over
On the question of losses Mule how much did you have locked up in Evraz ? Just asking as I saw you post up in that forum.. I had a few shares there myself, not a lot , the postie was a bit surprised today to hand me a big envelope from Moscow with Russian stamps on it… proxy voting forms for the AGM .
Takes one to know one
Oh great the filtered donkey is back
The new CFO will be under immense pressure to make things look as good as possible.
Started: kingrav, 17 Jun 2024 16:43
Last post: mavswf, 17 Jun 2024 21:37
Accountant ..I’ve got holdings in MCG in 3 trading accounts and average just under £1 cost on everything… I’ve been in NE / MCG for a couple of years now so kept buying to average down … stupidly as it turned out.
What’s your avg Mav? Hopefully should an offer come in it should be at least 80s minimum.
I’ve tried to remain positive here for weeks and holding huge paper losses on MCG but feel like this is nailed on now to drop into the 30’s. The market has passed its judgement on the buffoons running this company and I’m gutted that I have stayed in here too long and kept the faith that a turnaround was coming. I should’ve taken the loss at 20pc , now 50pc and counting. The writing was on the wall when the shorts started increasing and without any news to deter them they’re playing with the share price like cats with a three legged mouse. I just hope that there’s not another profit warning coming in half year that will be the final nail in the coffin for us long suffering holders here. I’m still fuming that Garat kept his job , theres nothing coming from the BOD to support shareholders in this lousy company. At least I’m not supporting Scotland in the Euros , there’s always someone worse off !!!
HY results not until 21 August, month later than last year. On their financial calendar.
I'm waiting to see if the spike on Friday was a short reducing.
3 large buys after close also, fingers crossed a short or II.
Started: Raffles70, 17 Jun 2024 20:23
Last post: Raffles70, 17 Jun 2024 20:23
Bad news ebs and flows.. look wjat the shareprice did after this new .. first group went down to 55p I'm the pandemic..
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2008/dec/17/nationalexpressgroup-unemploymentdata
Started: Raffles70, 17 Jun 2024 18:36
Last post: Raffles70, 17 Jun 2024 18:36
These shorts are going to close out soon, me thinks the results will be good. They are spooking us all to sell so they can hoover up at a cheap price. Buffet says if you belive in the Stock stay in... Their passenger numbers arw growing and its still in the clouds of covid after the government money ended... I'm sticking with this .. its hard to see it keep going down .. but me thinks this will bounce soon .. Imo chaps.
Started: Moneymule888, 17 Jun 2024 17:29
Last post: theAccountant, 17 Jun 2024 17:41
Noted, I value your opinion mule. Really substantiated facts.
Millions of traders who are voting with their feet.
Even Cosmen is ignored by the market. Note, IGNORED. Truly and utterly. Directors and the major shareholder IGNORED.
What are your facts to support this opinion?
Make no mistake, get out whilst you can
Started: Moneymule888, 17 Jun 2024 15:50
Last post: Moneymule888, 17 Jun 2024 15:50
And they all laughed at me 😂