Mobico Group Share Chat (MCG)

Oil prices down again to USD$68 per barrel - a 4 month low. US Iran talks are very productive. Good news for Mobico investors prior to the RNS by the end of July. Good time to add on Thursday-Friday this week - before the rise next week in share price as teh RNS draws nearer...could be?!

Meanwhile in other news England wins 2-1!

@helloDave The closure of the US markets can offer a window of opportunity for the US to carry out an attack or two on Iran in order speed up negotiations. If it happens, it will affect oil prices, which in turn affects companies like Mobico. It may happen, it may not.happen. Either way, it will affect Mobico either way. BTW Don't get too excited - Mobico's RNS is no guarantee that the share price will jump to 50p. The reality is that Mobico's current share price of .25p is a looonnnggg way from your 'first leg' of .50p...let alone your 'second leg' of .70p. In the meantime, you will have to continue to walk with your rather pronounced limp.

Nay idea why ya fanni3£ are worrying about us stock market holidays, this share is a lock and every day this month is closer to the financial report and first leg back to 50, with a nice return back to 70's fast

@GenghisInvestor My mistake its not the equaities that close early Thursday, it's the US bond markets that close early at 2pm Thursday 2 July.

Nice consolation today after the rise, help to clear out weak hands and transfer shares from weak hands to long term holders

Even at an mcap of £500m it would be undervalues

Nice to see that the 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 month, 6 month and YTD charts are all green. It has been a while since that was last true. When it hits 29.5p the 1 year chart turns green.

He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty boy

Still not in the 70's, no pint selling, mid term hold for maximum profit!

ALL HAIL JO,

sorry couldn't help that.

Mobico on the up again today. Much more to come.

Never sell a rising stock, especially with the RNS due in only one month's time by 30 July.

JO has spoken.

If you don't want to be robbed by a swift swoop down, I personally would consider any stop losses in play....atb, looking good for a nice re rate here. IMO

Picked a few more up under 23.30p... Chart proposes to go higher now. Agree may have a sell off coming into close of week. Like I said higher lows and higher highs. Catching perfect moments are near on nigh... can be only as close as poss.

If it goes below 23 I'll buy another big chunk.

It's genuinely crazy how cheap the share is compared to fair value.

@Dave You may have your wish as the Friday afternoon blues draws nearer and investors sell Mobico shares prior to the weekend. A drop to circa .225p to .227p will do me nicely for a top up. Watch this space if it happens.

Based on current debt assumed to be around £1b, and the US and German contracts resolved, the fair value for the company is currently 34.

The share is trading at a massive discount at the moment.

I'm happy as it makes it nice and easily for me to keep buying cheap shares.

@Time2Buy 'With the German contracts sorted and the price of fuel dropping significantly this should be due a re-rating back to a more normalised price. Expect to see a new trading range of 30-35p.'

Agreed. But only after Mobico has released its RNS with audited accounts, business update/forecast etc. by the end of July. In the lead up to the RNS, the share price ought to rise slowly and steadily to circa 25-27p. IMO

This is just how the hedge funds play it. A calculation that whether mobico does well or badly still makes them money

@GenghisInvestor 'The RNS could have provided more details on the German rail contract but it still looks a dogs breakfast'

The German deal has been negotiated, agreed and signed. There is little in the way of details released. Mobico have made it clear that the details will be in its RNS, which is due by the end of July, so we must all wait for such before any conclusions can be made. The main point is that the German deal has been finalised in order to reduce and minimise risk, and provides a firm footing - that in itself is the point of the German deal. IMO

@squatlover2 'If mobico go bust...'

Not to sure why anyone thinks Mobico will go bust. Mobico is fully banked by its lenders. Mobico (nor National Express) is not and never has been in breach of banking covenants.

@rob295 Shorts typically have pessimistic outlooks and see a stock through the 'glass half empty' lens and focus too much on historical results. In most cases, shorts miss the stocks with turnaround potential, and especially those stocks that have already commenced along the turnaround path.

In Mobico's case, the share price is already a near record lows, so to short it now there is minimal upside. Importantly, Mobico has new leadership in place, and is fully backed by its stakeholders.

ts

With regards to debt, Mobico (nor National Express) is not (and never has been) in breach of banking covenants. Mobico is fully backed by its lenders.

Importantly, Mobico have re-worked the German deal - and although further details will be disclosed in the audited results - the point is that stakeholders, lenders and shareholders like the fact that Mobico's leadership/management have renegotiated the German deal to teh betterment of Mobico and in order to minimise risk and provide stability for the future.

Should Mobico's audited accounts, commentary and forecast be in line with expectations, Mobico will re-rate very quickly, and be one of the 'turnaround' stories of the year.

The RNS could have provided more details on the German rail contract but it still looks a dogs breakfast tbh. Bureaucratic torture session.. Bad business and German rail seems to be going from bad to worse , no turn around in sight yet> Wait for 2030....

Seems like the most likely date. And nice few weeks to keep buying :)

A quick AI assisted google search has come back with Thursday 23rd July as a date for the next MCG earnings update. Not sure if this is accurate, can anyone confirm or provide an alternative time? tia.

@rob295 Good info.

Always best to adopt and roll-out best practice, functions etc. across the company. In this case National Express functions (and cost synergies( merged with Alsa. Smart move. IMO

Apparently ALSA is the 44th most reputable company in Spain, and highest in transport sector: (followed by IAG, Metro de Madrid & Renfe)

https://www.hosteltur.com/177102_las-empresas-turisticas-que-figuran-entre-las-200-organizaciones-mas-reputadas-de-espana.html

@wealthtrasfer I cam to the same conclusions a while back. The Mobico shorts have more or less the same 'investments' in both long and short positions on Mobico.

The fact is that what is now known points to a positive RNS and a share price re-rate from brokers and analysts under the title 'Mobico Turnaround' or similar with emphasis on new leadership, amalgamation between UK and Alsa Spain, debt management firmly under control and trending down, cost savings achieved of circa £100M, further cost savings of circa £75M on the cards, increased revenues, margin and profits, fully backed by stakeholders and lenders etc.

The shorts took out their positions when Mobico's shatre price was already at near record lows, so it was always a dumb move. Hence, the shorts must balance their risk with long positions, as their short positions are on very shaky ground.

While the shorts were (past tense) building their positions, smart investors (like JO) were using the downward pressure on Mobico's share price to build their long positions.

GLA

Parker216, (or should I say Laura Prescott) Thanks for the "advert". This is the same post for all your share chat... This is not an advertising board !

I suspect there is quite a bit of hedging of long positions in the short holdings. They won’t care or unwind until the results are out and a demonstrable route upwards is confirmed.

23.93 is the 200dma which should trigger more algo's to the buy-side, but WMATA shorters who loaded up through April and May around 24p, will be defending their position. Need more volume to break resistance.

Looks like you were on the money with bear trap

Tech bubble is expected to pop around November time once Anthropic and OpenAI have IPO, and everyone realises these massive data centres are not really need causing Nvidia to fall and the true value of AI happens when the market wakes up to the fact that there is just not enough revenue to support the billions of investment.

When that happens everyone will want to move funds into tangible assets and tangible companies.

Space X will survive as they are actually tangible, and now working with intel. But Nvidia, oracle, OpenAI and Anthropic are going to easily loose 40% of their value.

Good close for the stock. Stock "acts well".

You can have Space X and colonising Mars for a couple of trillion dollars if you want.

I'll take Mobico and 25bln passenger kilometres a year (and growing) for next to nothing.

Wonder if the shorts are waking up to the fact that the low point has gone and this will naturally start moving up in price lol

Well now the markets are holding up relatively well but we have to wait and see what the latest bout of political instability means . Red flag is Ed Miliband becoming Chancellor in place of the hapless Rachel Reeves . Ed is going t dismantle "neoliberalism" - i.e. a sharp turn to left . Lets hope they bottle this one ....

#onedamnthingafteranother

Slowly slowly catchy monkey... All bodes well for progress in company portfolio!

Post-finalisation of German PTA deal, it is completely logical that Mobico's exceptional management are waiting until they release the company's 15 month audited results in July, before they upgrade guidance. I expect good news from across the business and not just Germany. I'm also hopeful for a positive update about West Midlands Asset sales and, also, clear communication about our path to sustainable leverage reduction. #buyanydip #don'tfeedtheshorts

Post-finalisation of German PTA deal, it is completely logical that Mobico's exceptional management are waiting until they release the company's 15 month audited results in July, before they upgrade guidance. I expect good news from across the business and not just Germany. I'm also hopeful for a positive update about West Midlands Asset sales and, also, clear communication about our path to sustainable leverage reduction. #buyanydip #don'tfeedtheshorts

Good news, based on the USA and German contracts being resolved, with both putting money back into the pot (from loss to positive), debt now under the 1b region, hedged oil so i-ran had not affect and actually more people using coaches as more cost effective, new rail freight contracts, expansion of cash generative routes, we are now looking at a fair value price on the 70's, and once debt is below 500m and dividend back on we are looking at 200 regions.

Will be buying top ups every month on the way back up, as I expect alot of private investors will be, as this is a stable company free from the crash that tech will experience when the bubble pops.

I am sitting on average of 35p so down atm but i am very confident this share will turnaround and quickly this year after a to terrible few years for investors. I Started at 1.20 and have bed. Averaging down ever since . Never thought this share wiuld drop to 17p bit now recovery is in plcce and 50p plus is coming this year imho . JO. Posts our very good this guy knows his stuff good luck to all long term holders recovery is co ming keep the faith.

@helloDave I concur. A fair estimate is that Mobcio's total passenger numbers and revenues are up 25%-40% depends on routes. The events in the middle east has been boom-time for Mobico. Think COVID - the only businesses that did well were online businesses...similar with the oil crises. Far more people have chosen to take public transport. In adddition the middle east is not fully sorted as yet. Only the MOU is signed, not a formal peace deal. With it comes to the middle east, be prepared for the unexpected.

@Paddyboy1 Mobico at circa 22-25p is under most major investors' radar, hence the interest from shorts, as they can manipulate the market to an extent. However, once Mobico releases its audited accounts and business update with forecast, all bets are off. Until then, big investors will remain on the sidelines. I have said it many times, Mobico is a turnaround in play.

Only a week ago, many posters here thought the sky was falling as the Mobico share price slumped to circa .215p...while some were upset, I saw it as an opportunity and added in the lows, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. I has hoped I could add more on Friday, but the RNS meant a rise of 4.5%, which took the share price above my average.

I have a hunch that more private investors will absorb Mobcio's RNS from Friday and connect the dots (i.e. the German deal) in which case the Mobico share price will likely rise on Monday in the lead up to Mobcio's next RNS. In the event the share price drops to a reasonable level, I will add, as ideally, I would like to add a further via several smaller buy tranches over the couple of weeks. If the share price does not drop, I will add at the higher levels and accept the fact that the share price has a new higher baseline.

GLA

Just been through Heathrow, spoke to the bus chaps and they are saying the coaches have been packed coming into and going out, had a chat with one of the bookers and they said for the summer run all the airports coaches are reporting record numbers of passengers this summer 🌞

You’d kind of think the market would be copped on to this??

Apologies for typos but you get the drift

If the remaining term if the contracts is in balance, or better (as stated in prior RNS) then there could be a £100m write back of provisions to the bottom line profit. If taken in this financial year rather than retrospectively and then added to the £75m run rate cost savings and other productivity gains then I would expect a significant uplift in management forecast for the 9 month period ending Dec 26. A significant bottom line profit for the first time in many years should be the outcome when reported in March next year.

"Turnarounds seldom turn. But when they do, they are spectacular."— Peter Lynch

Just caught up with RNS and been going through the posts of yesterday... most notably important are the facts as laid out by OffGrid..

"But check the killer detail in the text: the RME contract converted to the risk-free gross structure "from 1 January 2026."

"Think about the legal mechanics here. For the last five and a half months, Mobico has been operating under the old, painful conditions. Now that the deal is backdated to New Year's Day, the German Authorities must legally reconcile the books."

Absolutely correct, and shorts will want to wind down asap, and I suspect one or two will have already started to adjust out on Friday. Looking forward to re-adjusted Q1 update taking above into account! Not far away now. Also seen encouraging results from FGP few days ago. All bodes well for us!

Well @CaptainS I am many other here plan on buying on the way back up, so time to load the bus, we're leaving the shorts in the ditch and heading back up to the rightful place north of the 70's!

Well everybody, it has been a rare good week for those of us who are genuine investors here. I have felt confident enough to add a few more shares to bring my average down to 53.7p. Being open and honest (take note Firecracker) I am several ks down on this but I now feel that the potential to recover is there so I'm in for the medium to long term. I hope you all have a very good weekend and roll on Monday.

@helloDave Indeed Mobico was the 5th highest riser in percentage terms (up 4.50% today) on the London Stock Exchange FTSE All Share leaderboard.

@firepower1 At 2.00pm yesterday 18/06 you posted: 'Share price will drop back in the teens, James Oxford and his followers will soon go into hiding, only a matter of time.'

Your above post has not aged well...as usual.

Mobcio was up (again) to close at 4.50% at COB today 19/06. I have been on this Mobico discssion board every day, including yesterday and today...but it is you who have gone into hiding.

Firehose you ought to be highly concerned for your Mobico short position - it is on very, very shaky ground. JO has warned you time and time again to close your stupid short position, but you refuse to listen. Unfortunately, due to your very poor and ill advised decision to short Mobico you will lose money. JO has spoken...again.

Nice end to the day :)

19-Jun-26 16:35:06 23.70 1,376,539 Buy* 326.24k

Some interesting responses from ChatGP : So I would say:

The sign-off was definitely positive and removed a significant uncertainty.

A modest share-price rise was justified.

A major re-rating would likely require either a large provision write-back, materially higher profit guidance, faster deleveraging, or evidence that the German business can now generate attractive returns.

The next results statement is likely to be more important than the contract signing itself, because that's where management may reveal whether there are accounting gains, provision releases, or upgraded profit expectations flowing from the new structure.

... and dont forget that there is less movement this afternoon with US traders all on holiday. Monday will be more exciting, as cross‑market algos all switch back on, volume will be up, and hopefully breach the 200-day MA, trending upwards, in my opinion. Locked in !

Time to lock in crew, 120 start of next year, sell the house and buy mobico, time to multi bag!

"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after winning and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began to buy or sell stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine—that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money."

I think the word you are looking for is desperate, the shorts know they have reached the end of their postion and this is now a solid turn around and the share will move north to fair value, they will be having calls with mm and funds to get shares.

trouble is the free float it very small, and the short position in relation to the freefloat is big, which is great news for PI, keep buying remove shares from the market and watch as this leaps up.

Those shorts have the bit

Shorts, MM, and funds will be having calls today bidding for best price, but as the freeflaot is so small its now a buyers market, expect this to start making serious moves north, time to buy up everything and lets the big boys have to pay top dollar to get the shares

A decent time has been given to the shorts to cover. Next few weeks will be interesting.

Considering cosmen would have some nice banking connections, i wonder if they will run a bid again, offer 80 a share to make sure the vast majority of holders agree due to the premium and take it private and then arrange new loan facilities and sell of Nation Express to First Group or flix to pay back the cost of acquisition.

Imo, while today’s news is largely inconsequential to retail investors (I mean, who cares about reducing risk and the long-term prospects of an unsexy business these days?), it would be huge news to any potential acquirer

I hope there isn’t a bid, but if vultures are circling, this will be pivot point for them imv as it drastically de-risks the company moving forward and makes future earnings more predictable

I’ll be amazed if there aren’t any approaches, even if they’re just informal

Shorts will start clearing now, too much risk on their end. With the USA and German loss contracts sorted Mobico will be able to seek new debt facilities at better rates meaning their can avoid the higher bond yields.

With debt under 1b, and operations refined they will be making more profit. Plus they will get a better credit rating, and looking towards when they can get the dividend reinstated.

Short term target 50-60, and next year 80-100

If we can hold above 26.5p by the end of the month, prior to the July results, that would set a good platform for a rise next month, presuming it confirms the unaudited results.

My expectations are pretty low tbh

I’m skeptical that this will be enough to trigger a rise, but happy to be proven wrong here. Will know soon enough

Hopefully we'll see a decent and sustainable a share price rise at last

It’s been signed!!!

@rob295 I always take quite a lot of factors into consideration when I'm selling, so it's impossible for me to call an exit price as yet.

Today, I'd want at least £1 to consider selling up (on a risk-free basis), but I'm happy to put Mobico out of my mind few years while the following catalysts (hopefully) play out:

- Deleveraging (the transfer of value from bond holders to shareholders)

- Further cost-cutting initiatives

- The shift to a more capital lite business model

- End of the onerous contracts

- Alsa growth

- UK stabilisation

- WeDriveU sale

If the above plays out, I wouldn't be surprised to see adjusted net income at c.£200m per annum come 2031. That would equate to an EPS of around 32.7p, I believe.

With those earnings, the company could comfortably pay out a 15p dividend per annum (5% yield @ £3 per share).

As always risk remains, but this is the bones of my investment thesis here.

9 days left before ze german news lands.

@firepower1 'You clown's need to get real, any bid for this company will be a rescue bid , where shareholders get wiped out.'

Your last prediction was terrible, you predicted Mobcio's share price would drop, yet it rose the same day by 15.22%! Thanks for your 'prediction' and for the profits! Who's the clown?! Lol

Please firehose, tell us when the next drop will be! Pretty please!!! Lol

@AimMaster2018 I have suggested that you watch and learn. However, against JO's advice a few weeks back Aimless, you took out a short position on Mobcio, then as Mobico's share price rose, you became frightened of your own shadow, and you closed your short positive at a loss. I cannot help you Aimstalker, as you refuse to watch and learn time after time. You only watch but you never learn imho

Hi @firepower1 , are okay?

Firepower1 as a matter of curiosity, do you have any education beyond GCSE/O Level?

My guess is the middle of next week. Francisco "Paco" Iglesias was officially announced as the new Group CEO on March 25th. Dropping the final, locked-in German restructuring data on Tuesday, June 23rd or Wednesday, June 24th marks exactly three months to the day since his appointment was made public.

Aligning the announcement with that specific three-month milestone makes perfect strategic sense for a couple of reasons:

The "First 100 Days" Milestones: In corporate leadership, the three-month mark is universally watched by institutional investors as the end of a new CEO's initial assessment period. Delivering a massive, structural restructuring win at exactly this moment allows Iglesias to show the City that he isn't just settling into the chair—he is actively executing.

The Mid-Week Liquidity Sweet Spot: Tuesday and Wednesday are the absolute best days of the week for maximum stock market impact. Releasing a major RNS on a Monday often gets swallowed up by a backlog of weekend macro news, while a Thursday or Friday release gets muted as traders wind down for the weekend. A mid-week drop gives institutional fund managers several full trading days to digest the numbers, update their models, and reallocate capital.

@helloDave I do not think firehose has access to the same info. His analysis and predictions are way off - hence he is either short, or not invested at all.

The reality is that Mobico's share price rose somewhat this afternoon to finish up 2.70%, due to the fact that the day traders placed their bets on Mobico's RNS being released AM tomorrow. If it is not released Am tomorrow, then Mobcio's share price will drop somewhat by mid AM Friday. IMO

@firepower1 at 2pm today you posted: 'Share price will drop back in the teens, James Oxford and his followers will soon go into hiding, only a matter of time.'

My word, your posts never age well! It is now close of business today, and Mobcio's share price is up 2.90% today. You are wrong...again. Firehose you are comedy gold!

Firehose when is your next Mobico share price prediction? I'll be sure to add to my holdings! When you predict Mobico's share price will fall, it rises every time! It's a licence to print money! I bet when you play Roulette and place your bet on 'black', it finishes on 'red' every time! What ever you do, don't give up your uber driver job!

The crazy thing is that firepower1 has access to the same intel and market info as us, which points to a massive reate, shorts trying to keep a lid on things, and the usual fund/MM tactic of waiting to the last minute to buy as they can buy pre-market.

US loss making contract ended early with £40m due back and more money in out of court settlement, German loss making contract resolved and just waiting for rubber stamp that will be done by the 30th June, Debt down from 1.2b to 1b with more cost savings expected this year, First Group trade up out showing strong transport market, new spain rail freigh contracts, new Middle East transport contracts, new major spainish holder, and i-ran deal done.

@firepower1 'James Oxford, lots of big mouth players have come and gone forever in this stock. Big Jock, jg68 , the list is endless,, no doubt you will be one of them. You cannot buck the markets, the decline in share price will continue.'

You list of big 'mouth players' are all related to you (there's Uncle Big Jock, there's...well you get the pitcure!), so I can assure you firehose I will not be one of them! I understand why you keep up with your dumb comments, not only are you short on Mobcio, you want to be some kind of 'Top Dog' too! Woof!!! Lol

BTW Thanks for your 'prediction'. as usual...Mobico is up circa 1.2% so far today. One of the few stocks that have risen in a quiet stock market! When you predict a fall, Mobcio rises. Keep up your predictions firehose! Lol

Must be a time to buy again as Fire🤡 says this stock is doomed.

Hey firepower1, don't be a bully. Jamesoxford is just enthusiastic, maybe he's touched in the head and like John Travolta in Michael and seeing through the market matrix to numbers and possibilities beyond our conception.

James Oxford, lots of big mouth players have come and gone forever in this stock. Big Jock, jg68 , the list is endless,, no doubt you will be one of them.

You cannot buck the markets, the decline in share price will continue.

US-Iran MOU deal signed - confirmation made a few minutes ago:

'Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, confirms that the MoU between his country and the US has been electronically signed. Trump ⁠has signed ⁠the memorandum of ‌understanding aimed at ending the war with ⁠Iran, a White ⁠House official confirmed.'

Good for oil supply. Good for economies. Good for Mobico.

In other news: England football team beats Croatia 4-2.

Which is the better news?! Lol

I think higher rates and the history of disappointing has wrong-footed the market here. The company has ample liquidity and it is in the process of doing deals in Germany and the West Midlands - where the company has saved the local transport systems and acted with honour and sacrifice - to set these businesses straight and raise EBITDA and lower net debt. On top of that we have exceptional management now implimenting transformational cost cutting programmes and efficiency drives. And all the time, Alsa keeps growing, because it adds so much value to customers. Much of what Alsa has done, together with local authorities in Spain, is a model to be adpoted by other countries. We could have an epic rally here.