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I've been checking their website for an update. Probably won't move the SP much since it was sort of expected I suppose.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Ratings-downgrades-Mobicos-rating-to-Baa3-ratings-on-review-Rating-Action--PR_489728
Interesting that Moody's is predicting they will refinance the hybrid not before 2025. Makes sense given previous discussion that the hybrid is more pricey than regular bonds, but then it makes the gearing look worse.
The new CFO needs to be all over this and turn round to the government and state either accept the price hikes or find another operator because we're not a charity and we are not going to continue to lose money. Believe the contract is up in January so should be reaching a decision by autumn. Personally I think we're better off axing WM buses, more hassle than it's worth especially if there is another round of strikes.
Sounds like crony capitalism
Its also quite possible that a Labour controlled funding authority will be able to cut routes and raise fares. They are doing that in London. Its just more politically acceptable to do under a Labour regime , they have a way of controlling the media fallout
It is very political as can be seen with Greater Manchester , as can be seen with their very bias write up ...
It is a nonsense to think that somehow the WMA does not liaise with Mobico with regards to routes,fairs etc ..... in fact they agreed together after the pandemic not to put prices up in order to assist in getting to passengers back onto the buses ..and liaised over the 2023 agreement with prices and wages
Mobico subsidy received from the WMA in WM is falling again this year, in the last year of the current agreement , and the WMA is dependent on DofT for their amount
If the new mayor goes to control and franchise then they will end up with a similar model as before, only they will use it as a political idea to point score
I guess a Labour controlled DofT in central Govt may provide more funding for local areas for public transport , to which the local Authorities would then have access to ..but it all depends on subsidies ...and a Mobico model is much the same ...
https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/news/greater-manchester-becomes-first-place-in-england-to-retake-control-of-buses-after-40-years-of-deregulation-with-historic-bee-network-launch/
"The candidate stated he wants Birmingham bus services to go into public control.
Of course, he is looking for votes .... "public control" always sound nice ..... wait until they find out what that means and what it costs to keep a fantasy route system that wants high wages and low bus price tickets"
The thing is that they still won't *really* be in public control. The average politician doesn't want to be doing the day-to-do operational management. They know that putting their useless mates in charge of buying buses or hiring drivers will mean the service will collapse, so they won't do that. But what they will do is dictate a lot of wasteful activity.
And this is an opportunity, because the politicians will want all sorts of headline-grabbing rubbish, they'll want to indulge their pet interests (like electric buses), they'll gold plate it all. They'll bow to the pressure to keep buses running for little old ladies, even though only 3 of them use the bus. Whoever gets these contracts is going to make a bundle of money.
If it stays above 60 today - better yet, this week - I think it's reasonable to suggest this could be a new support for an elongated V shaped recovery.
A support from which will hopefully soon perceived to be bargain basement territory...
Think we have seen the overreaction to this stock sand steady rise back to the 90s from here imo hopefully back over £1 by year end as always dyor
Sometimes shorts get carried away and do get it wrong so like a few have said will be interesting to see in next couple of days if they start to reduce and a good outlook on Thursday from the bank of England may continue the market rally
"How much of a drop would that cause, any thoughts?"
the shorters must think quite a bit
that could be the reason for the recent increase in shorts
They need to reduce a lot more than a 0.02%. I'm more concerned about this getting kicked out the 250. How much of a drop would that cause, any thoughts?
I'd expect it to rise. 2 shorts on the down can only be good news. I'd like to see Wace go away though. Got to hand it to them they always seem to nail it on the shorting!
So you predict another 2% rise tomorrow ?
we should be blessed :-)
Shorts reducing as i thought. Probably explains the rise early doors. Expect further reductions during the week. Been pushed too far down & dip being bought!
The CEO resigning would raise the SP by 10%! I doubt it unless they're bringing in RR's CEO to turn it around.
Too much impatience here. If we had a 2% rise everyday we'd all be happy in a few weeks. There is atm no reason for this to rise, hence the short positions. This will rise when it has reason to. The shorts are clearly struggling to hold it back!
Unless Cosmans buy I don't see how this can keep rising unless the market keeps going up but that's highly unlikely with this country. We're not the US. The CEO resigning will lift the sp 10% overnight in my opinion. He needs to end his tenure by resigning before we have him out the door.
Another false dawn , what a surprise :)
The market wont drag this up that's for sure , . Marginally, but not what we want
Looks like Jg was right
My Average now down to 77p happy with that can see this rising back near to 90p very quickly . as always dyor
Calling for JG68 to be amazed later @ 1630.
Off to count my chickens. They are thriving on the seed of POLB.
Big spike a few moments ago on MCG - went up 3pct in 30 seconds - I am assuming a big load up - cosmens maybe
gla dyor etc
Don't all count your chickens.
I will be amazed if this finishes the day above 60.
Value is obvious,and this will rise as the company gets the increases in prices that will see this much higher,and the interest rates start to be cut. The direction is now for a rising share price from here,in my opinion.
Nice to be back above 60p but let's be honest it is only because the ftse has hit a new record which has helped the 250. I think it's imperative we break 65p this week towards 70 to stand a chance of staying in the 250 as otherwise a lot of funds will start selling this if they see relegation looming!
Here comes the bounce, I wouldn't want to be shorting this now. Good luck all holders