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This share rose a good few hours ahead of US stocks, so unless someone got word of the deal and only invested here, the rise being due to the supposed Iran deal doesn’t line up in terms of timings

Had a hunt around to see if there was any news. Only item was this, which is probably a useful Middle East tie up, but not worthy of a price rise:

https://www.indragroup.com/en/news/indra-to-deploy-its-smart-mobility-platform-alongside-grupo-alsa-for-the-intercity-bus-network-of-the-qiddiya-city-a-gigaproject-in-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia

The politics of the Middle East are quite complex. No one can predict it… it could be years of this, just as easily as months or weeks.

It’s volatility is tradeable using ranges, but none of these “predictions” will ever be accurate, except as a stopped clock

Looks like a straight forward renewal with no operator gaining or losing services

It’s going to be a slow burn. End of June will have good and bad news, and this will be about patience as pieces slot into place. The six months results might be more interesting, as that should include two stronger quarters - but might as well get some kip till then, unless news comes in

It looks like funding should be about to be sorted for West Midlands buses - outcome is expected to be a "£145.2m subsidy scheme" across the region (90% of which is National Express) to cover 1st June 26 to 31st March 29 - although initially I think it will be for 1st June 26 to 31st December 26, and then modified in increments on the same principles through to 29.

But it does look like National Express have been more pushy on this occasion though. So they have set out in full which services would need to be cut to maintain profitability, and then given the data to explain the revenue vs costs etc - WMCA have then gone through the books and assessed that that position is reasonable (I don't think dropping usage after the fare cap cut has helped here). If approved the subsidy looks unlikely to make the buses very profitable (non-hedged smaller operators might still make a loss as they will have higher fuel than National Express), but it looks like it would deliver a low margin profit. There isn't an alternative between now and franchising as no alternative operators want the contracts (seemingly as there isn't enough money in them to make it worthwhile).

Tbf WMCA do seem pretty reasonable.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a01a3844fb0713aa63ea6c8/WMCA_Bus_Network_Support_Grant_final_report.pdf

Fishbone - I think Germany is more likely to be £10-20m loss after the deal, offset by strong profits once the bad contract ends. But otherwise agree

Steps seem to be:

July 2024 - contract starts

Some point in 2025 - exclusivity lost resulting in losses (potentially triggered by something in 2025?)

October 2025 - reduction in routes

November 2025 - first (or second?) batch of staff laid off

January 2026 - litigation by Mobico in belief contract not upheld

May 2026 - full termination of contract

May 2026 - staff fully laid off

Now no more contract or staff

They need to stop winning contracts from guys like these.

Overall and combined with the comments in the prior article it feels that Monica’s ligation should succeed (I don’t think terminating the rest of the contract really helps WMATAs case unless there is an additional reason we don’t know - it’s hardly good practice). And if the contract is terminated then you expect that the losses stop. It also suggests there was justification in the early contract stops of employees, even if not ideal for them

Still, would be easier not to have these sorts of issues - and this one feels avoidable. This particular development feels more positive than negative to me though, but at minimum there are legal costs, distractions and reputation impact

“On the covenant, it’s a little bit complicated because of the German settlement, because that’s going to influence the ratios very significantly. In fact, the accounting is quite complicated. In fact, even KPMG are getting technical advice as to how it’s treated.

It will be without Germany, it will be low, obviously, the covenant, the covenant ratio, but probably in the threes. You know, I’m probably getting stared at now, I’m not supposed to say this so much. It will be in the threes.”

“without, excluding Germany. With Germany, that again, depends on accounting, it would be lower, and by the year-end, it will be below 3.”

It’s certainly a risk, as you might get a big event, but you can see why they don’t leave Germany unresolved for the sake of the covenant. That context explains the bond prices quite a lot but there is big opportunity on the upside.

John - it’s in the last webcast. The covenant isn’t A over B so the German Rail agreement whilst positive financially is expected to adversely impact the covenant by a decent amount. Hence >3, then expected to drop through the year. Given the size of the shift I’m expecting a division over a smaller number, hence I think it will fall more quickly. But in doing the agreement they are trading a better future for a bit of squeaky bum time.

This next set of results we already know what the big issue will be - which is that the debt covenant should be >3x (which is probably why bonds are weak). I think that does also mean the covenant could decrease relatively more quickly after.

Some more detail :

https://thedailyrecord.com/2026/05/20/diamond-transportation-warn-landover-closure/

Potential extra labor costs due to disputed redundancy notice, but some corroboration that the contractor has a habit of moving contracts about (boosting legal hopes). Might win some and lose a little as both play out

If they are buying, how long till we would see? Certainly someone is topping up whenever it dips atm

Cosmens sold to NEX in 2005 I think when it was about £4, almost doubled holding to about 20% in 2023 when it was about £1, and bought more recently. Average should be about £2-3, and they offered £5 a share for the company in 2009. So yes, I think they will be desperate to sell for 30p, despite the good performance of the part of the company they initially sold. That would be really smart

So a rival Spanish company thinks it is worth buying 3% of the company shares and that is bad news? Can you set out the logic there as I’m head scratching? Surely it seems good if a party with market knowledge thinks the value is there? Imagine if Stagecoach took a 3% stake

My belief is that they will get £77m for the UK buses in installments. 20% upfront and the remainder split across the start of each franchise year. I may be wrong though

It’s like Doctor Who on here with the overexcited rampers and derampers

It’s nice to be back a bit higher, but given the speed of the rise do we think that the shorts just underestimated the exit liquidity? Ironically there were ample volumes to buy when we were just below 20p

Taking a short now doesn’t seem mad on a share with massive volatility atm. Holding it below 20p shows a complete lack of regard for usual trading strategy. Current sentiment seems to be 20-30p