Member Info for rob295

* underestimated

My feeling reading it back is that they overestimated how long it would take to agree with the five separate PTAs, feel bad and just want to reassure that it’s still on course. So the have taken any excuse to give an update

Any idea what the speculation is? I can find nothing. Bit of a strange one

Trump tariffs won't be as problematic as Japan atm (see the latest rates) - that's going to hurt debt markets (and markets in general) globally for now. Road is likely to be bumpy for the next few weeks. Trump hardly helps things though

* different thing

It’s a dig thing selling a business. Then you are valued on profits. A transfer of assets is a different scenario entirely

I would be very disappointed if they discontinued the assets and then took on a franchise where they pay the full lease cost. It would make no commercial sense to me, but we will see. I’d expect a good sale price

Wealthtransfer - https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/02652253/filing-history - see the 2024 accounts

Coach no longer owns many coaches - they were mostly held via the coach companies that have just been sold

Total book value is £140m, so £50-60m would be a £80-90m loss on disposal? I don’t see why they wouldn’t get book for the assets. The book will take into account age etc

Cheers, I hadn’t seen that and that’s pretty logical.

There was a pension deficit last year, liabilities around grants (probably on the EVs) and other potential deductions.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/02652253/filing-history

Will likely have to just wait and see.

Does anywhere say the West Midlands staff will be laid off? I was expecting that the bulk would either be arranged to transfer to the franchisee (whoever that is), or shift to alternate franchises won (if any one) - depending on role. Seems daft that it wouldn’t be organized to use the trained staff in a given area.

So most likely I’m expecting buses sold dropping net debt, but then a smaller rise in net debt from shorter duration lease liabilities. I’d be surprised if Mobico won no franchises, and really just expect a reorganization of how the contracts work. Tbh they should have the edge in the West Midlands franchise as they know the structure (the council despite owning the assets won’t), but even in a new location staff costs should be flat, and probably just sees staff transfer between companies.

They have to franchise and buy the buses and depots, because as we know - otherwise the guys running these services make so much money ;)

Https://governance.wmca.org.uk/documents/g1635/Public%20reports%20pack%2016th-Jan-2026%2011.00%20WMCA%20Board.pdf?T=10

Go to page 41 (page 37 on the page itself)

"The starting point of ownership will be to acquire the existing fleet from National Express. For diesel vehicles, which make up around two thirds of

National Express vehicles, this is a direct transaction. For the electric buses, making up the remaining third, this will require the transfer of fleet provision contracts (similar to a lease) from National Express to WMCA. To maximise value for money, WMCA will seek to undertake a combined negotiation with National Express covering both the diesel fleet and electric bus contracts. "

And there is a bit of discussion of whether they take on the oldest diesel assets or not.

In the H1 results it was said there was a lot of interest in the assets, so hopefully they aren't getting too much maximised value for money.

The cost looks agreed, but is in a confidential Appendix - there is a note about Grant Funding of £77m 'to enable acquisition of current fleet'.

The rest you can read yourselves.

According to this article, it looks like the first moves are being made in the West Midlands :

"Local authority proposals to buy up hundreds of buses from coach firm National Express could be given the green light next week."

https://www.placemidlands.co.uk/wmca-eyes-up-fleet-purchase-ahead-of-bus-shake-up/

Notable paragraphs :

"A potential deal to bring the West Midlands fleet into public ownership will be discussed at a WMCA board meeting next week, which could see ownership of vehicles and leases transferred to WMCA for both diesel and electric vehicles in the National Express fleet."

"The commercial details of any potential purchase arrangement have been kept secret on the grounds of commercial sensitivity, but papers due to go before the WMCA’s board next week say over 1,000 buses could be brought under the authority’s ownership ahead of the first roll-out of franchised bus services in 2027."

Book value within the West Midlands Travel Limited subsidiary at year end 2024 was £93m for 'Public Service Vehicles' and £15m for Vehicles, Plant and Equipment (£108m). I think they have about 1500-1600 vehicles in total - of which 292 are electric on lease from Zenobe (£3.5m book value on the right-of-use Public Service Vehicles). For reference the balance of Plant, Property, Equipment is £1m on freehold Land and Buildings, and £30m on short lease Land and Buildings. The buses should be worth the book value, so can't really see why they'd be doing a deal below book value.

Might be an interesting one once the details feed through - board meeting is Friday and information to a degree should be in the public domain. Sounds like they just want to buy out the fleet if I read it right? Will have an impact as most UK Plant, Property, Equipment was in this subsidary, and the sold coach subsidaries - so UK would almost go fully leased for now.

I still think the German PTA will drag (and will get announced as soon as it is agreed as it is too material not to). It’s just going to be hard getting that last 1% over the line without giving ground that could be legitimately held

I don’t think Morocco has ever been flagged as loss making? I don’t think you try and win contacts below your point of value, but I’d be surprised if this is them walking away from losing contracts. It feels more likely to be a downtick in expected earnings (which will obviously sit alongside other upticks and downticks).

There's a lot of contract wins / loses and asset buys and disposals - so I see why there is no RNS. It will get included in the reports. They are the reserve supplier so they bid, just got beat by a better (presumably cheaper) bid.

In less positive news for ALSA there are a few contract losses in Morocco (£145m a year total revenues). Looks like staff transfer over to the new provider which means costs and revenues will drop:

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2025/12/271538/supratours-replaces-alsa-as-marrakech-bus-operator-to-launch-service-sunday/

@Paddy - I get the same numbers and they look like they have a reasonable likelihood - but no one really cares these days. Everyone is too busy stuffing all their money into Tesla because a tele-operated robot can serve popcorn

I think we pick back up after the 2025 results (10th March sort of time maybe?) - we should be on track for £40-50m pre tax profit from continuing operations, and that should be a signal that we need to be a bit higher than a £140m market cap. I shouldn't say it out-loud, but it does feel like the bad news well is getting dry - I can't think of much more that could be dredged up. With Q3 now being Q2 the H1 results for 2026 should also hold the positivity given that Q3 is supposed to be the biggest quarter. But can't see much else happening till though then unless the German resolution is particularly good - people will need still good news to buy imo.