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Absolutely. These people are hight quality. They are in it for the long haul - no pun intended. These shares will make new all time highs again, much sooner than most people can imagine.

Doesn't need to be anything big. Just the anticipation of the PTA deal and the audited results. As JO said, shorts haven't been given the chance. They are blinking I reckon. This move is nothing. Look at the long term chart. Don't feed these shorts.

Bravo JO

Probably quant funds. algo driven. This stock has been on a mega multi-year down trend. It's a big deal for something like that to reverse. This is a genuine turnaround stock. Everything is in place with our exceptional new management leading.

I don't think anyone would bid for this company until German deal finalised and audited results come out. I reckon a short squeeze - everything is in place for this. I have never ever seen a stock so ripe for a short squeeze, technically and fundamentally.

I dont think there is any news out - I can't find any - no rumours either. The first short has blinked IMO

Perhaps this week was political theatre so that Trump looks independent from Israel. The Iranians can propogate a myth that they "won". And now we will have a proper peace deal where the Strait opens just in time for the SpaceX IPO which will raise $75bln (!) in a stock market rallying like mad with an oil price collapse. And coincidentally just at the time where Mobico is about to announce the finalisation of the German PTA deal and perhaps also the terms of the sale of West Midlands assets...?

Iranians indicating "military operations" against Israel are over. Indications that kids are going back to school in Israel.

Last chance to buy Mobico before a surge??

Feels like this is posturing ahead of a deal "we still have muscle". Maybe we are very close to a peace deal as you say JO, and the opening up of the Strait.

This is interesting: https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/short-sellers-caught-out-after-b-and-m-posts-improved-annual-results-md0dn0qw8

This is great stuff. Not a company on the back foot. I think reasonable chance that when Mobico announce finalisation and terms of German PTA deal, they might also update the market about West Midlands asset sales ahead of franchising.

HelloDave ignore the haters. Thanks for your insights. Respect.

The shorts are trapped. Nobody moves. Nobody gets hurt.

Assuming the German deal is finalised as it should be. And the cost cutting programmes are going as planned. And West Midlands asset sales go ahead as expected. Mobico should generate minumum £300mln for debt reduction by the end of 2027. And EBITDA should have improved by minimum 15%. Then stock should fly. And it will feel a lot better when it's 100% higher.

I think systemic shorts increasing because of macro indicators. It's paid in the past. Plus previously Mobico has serially disappointed. But this time we are set up by brilliant management to beat and maybe even smash expectations. ... Huge bear trap.

I suspect free cash flow numbers will be absolutely fantastic, well above expectations, when the audited results are finally released. With the old management I used to dread earnings day, with this management I cannot wait.

I suspect UK coach will be doing much better than expected. This will demonstrate what a brilliant operator Mr Iglesias is. We are lucky to have him as our CEO. The fact that he took the top job is evidence to me that the turnaround is going very well.

If Mobico Group becomes a ten-bagger from today’s depressed levels, it will be because the market eventually realises the business was suffering from temporary crisis conditions rather than permanent decline — but that is exactly why it never feels good at the lows. The best turnaround investments usually look financially stretched, controversial and emotionally exhausting right before sentiment, cash flow and valuation finally turn.

Seems to me that this was well planned, even though it feels out the blue. The fact that WMATA is so easily able to replace Mobico with alternative contractors is perhaps the ultimate example of why Mobico said they were in breach of contract?? I suspect there will be an agreement soon for both sides to walk away with no admission of wrongdoing. And there will be legal costs and maybe some other costs (employment), but Mobico will be able to retain the bulk of the remaining provision. Assuming the German deal is finalised - which is very high probability likely- Mobico is now a clean businesss. This is good news I think. Which short will blink first?

It seems likely to me that we are closed to settlement with WMATA? Hopefully before the audited results. Hopefully we'll get a chunk back from the £53mln provision, and removal of uncertainty. Would be very good news would make sense for everyone.

HelloDave (and JO) massive respect. I think closer to £2.8bln of revenues this year?