Member Info for ConradOnePost

It's very hard to get the absolute low. Sometimes there is a moment and you see something. And you call a situation. JO, you seem to have traded this very well. Selling when the war broke out, and then buying back as well. But if the turnaround really has begun, and if we are about to see clear evidence of this, then, this stock could be a 10 bagger or more it really could be. And we have exceptional management who seem to be doing all the right things.

I'm exaggerating, I'm being fecetious, but, 3 aircraft carriers and 15 Cruise missile destroyers against a few speedboats.... come on, it's not rocket science, it's jet fuel. Would you want to be piloting one of those speed boats ??????

Https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2047643974777577476

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B7KR2P84/

This is how it works. You can't sell on the way down, you can't buy on the way up.

As we get closer to potential +ive catalysts, people are buying the turnaround.

Don't take your off the prize - a successful turnaround, and beyond that...

An historic opportunity to buy shares in a (now) fantastically managed growth company at a bargain price.

The 12 month forward diesel price has not moved much. IMO, the war is basically over, the Strait will be open soon, Mobico is a bottom up turnaround story with potentially transformational positve catalysts imminently - share price is a potential 10 bagger. Buy the dip/don't feed the shorts.

I hate the idea of small investors, who risk their own money, gifting hedge fund shorts, if indeed the recovery is just beginning.

... "It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage." This stock has disappointed so many times. BUT now we are most likely approaching transformationally good news. Dont' gift the shorts...

Hey everyone, the war is (probably) over !!! Buy easyJet

"easyJet holidays saw continued strong demand, with customer numbers increasing by 22% in the first half."

Trouble with trading this for the beta (mkt sensitivity) or macro (war headlines) is that then you risk missing out on the "big" move. This a turnaround story, we are awaiting major company specific newsflow which should rerate the shareprice by 50-100% from here very quickly. These shares are really an option on recovery - they are "not normal"... And beyond that, as JO mentioned, this is now potentially a major growth story as well... And, as discussed, we have the (not risk free) edge on the analysts, and most of the institutional money who wont touch it till we have audited accounts and written contracts.... trade all you like but, dont forget, it will be hard to buy back in at higher levels... and you could kick yourselves for 2 years as stock trends higher... Most of these shares are tightly held now, nobody moves, nobody gets hurt. Why gift the shorts?

It's kind of an arb isn't it? If you're willing to take the risk of the German deal not finalising or the audit turning up a significant problem - both highly unlikely in my view - then you have the edge over the analysts and the institutional money who won't buy until the ink is dry. And then, the stock will likely be unbuyable... Is this the last chance below 20?

In Paco we trust. To quote the wonderful Mr White: "He is the ideal candidate to lead the business in its next chapter of growth and to ensure the value inherent in the Group's portfolio is better reflected".

It's ironic that the war headlines arguably benefit the company with higher demand, and because its so liquid and also so well fuel hedged compared to the competion, and yet the share price goes lower. The truth will out...

I suspect, on the margin, it's quant funds selling, the kind of funds that do not predict a turnaround very well.

And at any time the announcement of the finalisation of the deal with the German PTAs might come. Is supect this will be better than expected - management are commited to not over promising - and quite possibly much earlier than the June 30 deadline...

People don't realise how high quality Alsa is and how this level of quality is already spreading to the other business units. The management in Germany as well - when you consider what they have had to deal with, and how they have come through - they are exceptional. Germany promises to be a massive business for Mobico in the future.

The genuine exceptions on the negative side were so much bigger than the tiny exceptionals on the positive side in their 12 month unaudited results. It's so obvious. This is a management who will do everything they can to surprise to the upside rather than the downside in the future!!! Big picture guys. This is just getting started. Paco is The man !!!

The research analysts are useless here. All their numbers are too low. Their price targets nonsense. They don't take into account the German deal. The UK asset sales. The probably WMATA write back. The growth opportunities. The massive efficiency drive.. Just as they got everyone in at the highs they are panicking people at the lows !!! Obviously there is risk here, but there is also risk / reward !!!

This company has a genius financial strategy. We have hoarded cash. We don't need to pay the market now to refinance. We will probably endup tendering for a chunk of the hybrid at a big discount and then refinancing a much smaller bond. By then we will be below 2x Net Debt / EBITDA... And I hope we DONT pay a dividend, I hope we buyback shares even if we are above £1... and invest in growth. We have been told that we are looking at at least 5 new countries. The addressable market share for WeDriveU is up to 10x.... We will tender for all our German rail lines when the new gross contract frameworks are released. We will be number 1 choice. We have stood by Germany and done our duty and we will be rewarded.... We will have ample opportunity elsewhere in the country. We are The private train operating partner for German regional and local government just as the country invests hundreds of billions in German rail !!

We are 85%+(?) hedged on our fuel till the end of 2027!! Flixbus partner operators in the UK probably hardly hedged at all in many cases. We are now undercutting Flixbus whilst our margins are actually expanding. We should have a blowout year in UK coach relative to expectations!!! Enough of Flixbus "creaming off our network"... We are a wonderful company doing wonderful things in a wonderful way with this new management. We are so incredibly lucky to have White, Eglesias and Egan and the steady long term guidance and ethics of the Cosmen family.... 2026 is THE turnaround year for Mobico. You'll be able to say "I bought Mobico shares below 20p". And if you are long from higher up, don't give up now, just when things are getting good again, these shares will make new all time highs and then go much higher than that with Paco leading the company.

It's our opportunity to own these shares at these rock bottom levels whilst big institutions feel compelled to stay away until we finally have audited results, until the ink is dry on deals which we know are going to happen... Just needs a bit of courage to ignore the volatility.