First group results18 Jun 2026 11:47
Morning all. Anyone watching the FirstGroup (FGP) numbers this morning should be thinking about what it means for Mobico. FGP absolutely smashed it—adjusted operating profit beating consensus at £219.4m, a roaring 33% revenue jump in their bus division, and a fresh £100m share buyback launched.
The direct read-across here for Mobico is massive. The shorts have spent months trying to spin a narrative that UK mass transit is a low-margin graveyard, yet our closest peer just proved the sector is a defensive cash cow.
The pieces are falling into place beautifully for an explosive structural re-rating here:
1. The Macro Headwind is Completely Blown Away When oil spiked back in March over Middle East tensions, algorithms aggressively pinned Mobico down on fuel margin fears. Now, with the official peace agreement signed and Brent crude collapsing back down below $78, that entire bear argument has evaporated. Lower input costs mean Mobico's underlying profitability is quietly getting a massive upgrade.
2. The June 30th German Catalyst (Days Away) We are sitting less than two weeks out from the hard deadline to finalize the German Rail restructuring. Converting the RME lines to a risk-free gross contract structure and shaving three years off the loss-making RRX contracts completely rewrites the risk profile of our balance sheet. This isn't a vague target—it’s a binding legal deadline that unlocks the final July audit sign-off.
3. The Trapped 5.70% Short Base Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Arrowstreet, and GLG have been using the quiet news period to aggressively press the price down to 22p, trying to shake retail out for cheap liquidity. But they are playing a dangerous game of chicken. The Spanish transport dynasties (Cosmen/Casla) already lock up nearly 30% of the float. There are simply no loose shares available when the algorithms are inevitably forced to buy back and cover.
The Bottom Line: FGP has verified that the industry economics are robust. The macro environment has turned highly supportive. Now we just wait for the hard ink on the German contracts followed by the audited numbers next month. The funds can manipulate a boring trading afternoon, but they cannot stop the hard facts when these deadlines land. Sit tight, ignore the intraday noise, and let the clock do the work. Strong hands win here.