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Youre right of course, Trump comes accross as quite needy for attention and he will soon move on to the next thing he can f**k up.

In the mean time it does allow the odd top up when funds allow

As we live in a World of " Just in Time" for just about everything, if this drags on for 2-3 years as certain people suggest then the whole World will turn to S**T big time and worrying about shares will be the least of anyones problems,

The western World can ill afford to allow this to drag on to long, wether we like it or not for the foreseable future the World revolves around OIL.

This is the part most people miss. I double checked this with the AI

Because the coupon was paid last week, on the first call date Feb 26th, Mobico now has:

• No further bond cash outflows until Feb 2027

• No refinancing pressure until the call/redemption decision

• A full year of breathing room on debt servicing

This is very relevant for the equity because:

• Shorts were betting on refinancing stress

• That stress is now pushed out another year

• The company has more flexibility to manage cash flow

• The risk profile improves slightly after each coupon payment

I have to agree with you there, did'nt think we would be back down here, the story has changed for the better and I for one will be topping up a little more tomorrow if we test below 25p

RE. J O, I can apreciate everybody on here has there own agenda, but I do find it straange that someone who a few days ago was saying this is a perfect turnaround play and hold for the next 12 months and then say they have sold up because of macro events and its going down.

The whole market is down today and oil prices are up so fuel prices will follow, but as we all know Mobico's fuel prices are hedged well into the future.

So my view is if you believe in the company you just ride out the up's and downs, but i feel there is know a good chance of more up up's as we move through this next 6 months.

The two Quant shorts Arrowstreet and walleye will be struggling this morning they were adding heavily from December using there computer modelling which was clearly wrong, so there algo's will be buying back agressively this morning which will help push the price up. Oh well!

Profit beat, debt down a little, germany getting resolved and no new problems have certainly helped this morning.

two good investor meetings to clarify everything and we can all look forward to a better year. GLAH

We need to see net debt reduced, operating profit within range and bond refinancing progressing positively, these to me will be key things in the update and the first meeting with institutional investors and analysts at 9.30.

Hi Paddy, the quant shorts here, Arrowtreet and co have been holding this down to there benefit over the last couple of months with there computer modelling highlighting historic trends and debt profiles of the company, however I have tried to do some extensive research and modelling using different AI engines with various news items from NX west mids operation, Alsa in spain where i have first hand knowledge from news outlets etc and Germany and the USA and i have to say and there average Bear case scenario for Thursday is around 15% with a Base case around 60% and various other better scenarios sharing the last 35%.

Now the Various AI models could be just full of s**t , but a lot has changed as far as I can see in the last 12 months and the Alsa management team are firmly in control of a lot more of the operation than is realised, with all this in mind i bought another chunk this morning when it dropped near to 22p but i understand your point about keeping some dry powder for Thursday, becuase you just never know !!

The WMCA investment board met this morning and approved the purchase 24 articulated electric buses costing 26m, for the sprint, tram style service. Also the new bus depot will be built at Kitts Green for the new buses to be located at. National Express will be housed there and allowed to operate the buses on a temporary basis until the franchise scheme is fully implemented later this decade.

Obviously in my view if they are already at the new depot that the Government are building and already operating the buses, they would have to be completely useless to lose the franchise.

I would imagine this will all be mentioned on Thursday

with regard to the bus depots, as of today the wmca are officially moving forward with purchase of the a****s green and west brom depots from national express for £8.1 million and leasing them back to nx but with a 12 month rent free period, so they continue to operate as normal and dont't start paying rent until 2027.

Wace have probably got a small position here but i cant see them increasing, as i mentioned the other day its the quant shorts that are trying to control the price with there algo trades, the macro data today and the fact that the 5yr gilt is falling is all good news going into next week.

By the way the Ibiza deal is self financing over the ten years because they are being paid a flat rate per KM regardless of passengers which they are using to secure the Bus leases also there is a massive EU green grant for the electric bus fleet.

Arrowstreet Capital is a massive, Boston-based quantitative investment firm. they dont pick stocks in the normal way they just use computer models to track shares and the algo picks up sell signals and automatically starts shorting a stock. I presume there model suggests that mobico is still weak so the computer automatically shorts them, hence if you notice the constant drip of short pressure to suppress the price. I don't think it is that they know something the algo is just following the down trend until there is a reversal, at least thats the theory !

I think this will go higher, there is a lot going on in the background, the new guy from ALSA is in Birmingham and is credited in the trade press for the passenger increase last month, I have read he is also concentrating on the airport transfer market as it is more profitable, also any job duplicated by the ALSA team is gone. CPI was lower yesterday, so the 5 year gilt is lower which affects the hybrid bond which resets funnily enough next Thursday, which means if it not renegotiated or redeemed it resets at a higher rate but not as high as a couple of weeks ago. The last day for objections to the WMCA proposal is the 23rd, so next Monday. The German situation is improving and there are some contract wins at wedriveu. Arrowstreet the main Quant player a trying to hold it down at this level because there algos are working on a worst case scenario. Obviously this is all my own thoughts as i am well invested here as a turn around play, but i think the price will rise into the high 20's by this time next week

Well we can always hope they were being conservative and they come in slightly better

Any forward guidance regarding Germany is bound to help the update in 2 weeks, alongside all the other possible positives and if earnings come in at the top end of guidance we will be off. I can hope I suppose

There are 2 good posts on LinkedIn from the last 24 hours, titled, The sweetest open pit in Colombia and mining Economics for dummies.

I apologise if everybody has already seen.

The shorts don't know anything, they are protecting there existing position, exploiting the silence,the price is holding up OK, an even slightly positive update and it will unwind very quickly.

The short situation with MCG is all about control of the share price, my view is that the share price is trying to push higher but they don't want it to unwind to quickly or there will be a huge short squeeze, so I think there is a bit of a battle going on at the minute and i'm sure the have just upped the short again today,

But I do think this is the time to buy before we start the inevitable move up. Just my opinion of course

The MM's have made a killing today, flushed out the weak hands and know we are just about entering the buy zone for me, as far as I am concerned nothing has changed here.

The MRE maps out the first part of multiple assets, with a lot of upside to come.