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Hi John33, As I have pointed out before, Arrowstreet is a massive Boston based Quant Fund

Unlike a fundamental investor who reads every line of an annual report, Arrowstreet uses massive computer models to rank thousands of stocks. That is likely why their "black box" is targeting Mobico: The disclosure of 1.91% as of April 2nd is another jump. That represents Arrowstreet holding roughly 11.6 million shares short.

They are effectively using the "Orange Rhetoric" and $110 oil as their primary shield, betting that fuel costs will eventually crush Mobico's recovery. However, looking at the tape from today (Tuesday, April 7), their strategy is hitting a very expensive wall as most of their recent shorting likely happened between 17.2p and 18.2p. With the price hitting 19.25p today, they are now significantly "underwater" on those new positions.

We saw 11 million shares trade today alone. If Arrowstreet needs to exit that 1.91% position, they would need to buy back 11.6 million shares. In a market where a mystery institutional "Big Fish" is already hoovering up every available share, Arrowstreet has nowhere to turn for liquidity without sending the price vertical.

Just thought I would have a quick check in, the share price managed to finish in the 18's which is a good sign, as long as the Orange Rhetoric doesn't kick in again over long weekend.

also AIM, tell me if No One knows nothing, does that mean everybody knows everything or somebody knows something.

Answers on a postcard 🤔

So by that it should be before the end of next week then perhaps ?

Is there a trading update next week ?

The first four trades straight after the UT were almost certainly buys as they were all offbook and above the auction price so someone was in a hurry to take 3.5m shares off the level 2 order book very quickly, not sure about the last two but could be same buyer at lower negotiated price.

I will be interested to see how it opens tomorrow as it is Paco's official first day in Birmingham tomorrow, positive CEO statement via RNS perhaps.

Or maybe as it is april 1st a picture of a double decker bus full of KitKats😂

These aren't guaranteed "bonuses." For Paco and Brian to actually see a penny from these 12.9 million shares, they have to hit specific targets over the next three years (vesting in March 2029).

For the 2025/2026 LTIP cycle, Mobico simplified the rules. Unlike previous years which were a mix of metrics, these are now 100% tied to Relative Total Shareholder Return (TSR):

• The Benchmark: Mobico’s share price performance (plus dividends) is measured against a peer group of other transport and industrial companies.

• The Catch: If Mobico remains at the bottom of that peer group, zero shares vest. They only get the full amount if they outperform the majority of their rivals.

• The "Safety Net": The Remuneration Committee also kept a "discretionary override." Even if the math says they should get the shares, the committee can cancel them if the company's underlying safety record or financial health isn't up to scratch.

3. The Scale of the "Incentive"

Because the share price is so low right now (around 18p), the number of shares awarded is historically high:

• Paco Iglesias: 7,416,281 shares

• Brian Egan: 5,525,164 shares

At current prices, Paco’s award is worth about £1.3 million, but it only becomes truly valuable if he drives the stock back toward the 50p–60p levels seen in years past. If he gets it back to 60p, that award becomes worth £4.4 million.

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Why this matters today

Most "bleak" analysts are focusing on the debt, but the board is clearly betting on Paco’s ability to "Alsa-fy" the rest of the group (applying the high-margin success of the Spanish business to the UK , North America and Germany). By giving him over 7 million options at the bottom of the cycle, they have given him the ultimate incentive to stop the rot.

Also as I have said before the quant shorts especially Arrowstreet will keep rising while the macro noise is real, because there is minimal human oversight with the trades it is all driven by maths ,the current oil price and general macro sentiment. Again I might be completely wrong, but at least i;m giving reasons to be positive rather than spouting repetative boll8x with no real explanation .

FP1, I see you are on here talking bo***x again and you still havn't told us where you are invested, so I have decided to just block you

I think what most don't realize is that upto 85% of spains electric grid is provided by non fossil fuels, where we are most of the mountain tops are covered in either wind turbines or solar panels and there are various nuclear power stations around the Country.

So electric Buses my perfect sense.

TACO time again, lets hope it continues and we get a peaceful resolution and Mobico share price recovers.

Incidently Firepower i,m still waiting for your investment advice, but if you had any sense you would have bought in this morning before 11am.

Just bought my first block of shares , managed to get in under 7p, so i'm happy about that. I understand they are going to Lisbon next week, could be positive ?

Considering an investment here, any reason for the price drop this morning, just macro noise and risk off sentiment ?

I dont think Firepower is a minicab driver, he must be a Farmer, he was talking about Ducks and Horses in his last post and i,m still waiting for his advice about where he has all his money invested.

It is a positive story but it would be nice if some of these stories made it into the FT, or other nationals.

LaraLara, I have looked at todays trading patterns and it has been a tightish spread all day no real suprises, the MM,s walked it down a bit then it stabilised the buy sell ratio was about even.

The short interest is being controlled by 3 quant short specialists that rely on computer Algos to auto buy and sell based on historical data the is minimal oversight by humans although GLG has more Human input.

The macro noise of the last few weeks is the primary driver of the share price returning to pre results levels.

The Debt is being easily serviced and is coming down. AMO

Also I am still waiting for flowerpowers update on where i should invest some money to earn back all of my losses, come on man you must be invested somewhere because you are clearly not invested here

I'm with you on this one LaraLara, the only reason this is down is the current macro situation, nothing more.

Our resident Oracle😂, only comes out of the woodwork when it has a couple of down days.

If you are such a sage( and onion) tell us all where to invest to recoup all of our losses, smoky thinks you have inside info, so share it here and I will give serious consideration to it

@JamesOxford , did you buy some this morning now that it is down at your bargain price below 20p ? I know I did.

In answer to your observation yesterday, talking investment advice from the chat board would be a little foolish,on that we agree, but some observations that are posted can be useful and silly user names are just a bit of fun in this crazy world, as is this forum most of the time.

Morning J O, Unless we have all had our head in the sand we know what is going on in the middle east, you have said on numerous ocasions that you are a cashed up investor, but you know full well that this is know turning into a turn around story and you are just trying to talk the price down for a lower entry.

I might be completely wrong and you are genuinely concerned for your fellow Mobico investors with your comments 😂.

My view as a long term investor , not a day trader is that the current situation is a bit of a hickup and normal service will resume a little later than originally planned. IMO

Yes your right john, i appreciate there is no reporting below o.5%, but at least they are down

Walleye have cleverly used the macro news over the last week to slowly exit there position without spiking the price, it was nicely done on there part actually.

But it is a least one out of the way, the two Quant shorts are a slightly different story they will stay in until the Algorithum tells them to get out, which may be another couple of weeks or so, but i think as someone else pointed out we have found the floor around this price, so any move up will be a positive.

The next catalyst i can see will be the audited results unless there is insider buying or contract wins before that.

I think it will come good over the next few sessions, unless the Donald throws his toys out the pram again. But I notice the shorts have reduced again which all helps.