focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I thought it was prior 12 months, if it's 6 they might as well wait a few months, if the sp craters 10p, then offer a small premium.
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Requirement for particular forms of consideration: If:
the bidder acquires for cash any interest in shares in the target company during the offer period; or during the offer period and within the 12 months prior to the commencement of the offer period, the bidder acquires shares for cash which represent 10% or more of the relevant class; or in the view of the Panel a cash offer is necessary in order to ensure that all holders of the securities of the target company of the same class are afforded equivalent treatment,then the offer must be in cash (or include a cash alternative) at not less than the highest price paid by the bidder during the offer period or during the offer period and the preceding 12 months (as appropriate).
https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk#stakebuilding
Would not be surprised if there is another profit warning in the next few months. Premptive action could be cash raise or ALSA sale, the further the sp decline the more the market is signalling this eventuality in my opinion.
Is there any scenario where they might not bid, becasue the market knows they are getting close to the 30%, that's why itrose to 93p previously on the stake building but seem uninterested that a bid might materialise, or what Cosmens intentions are?
One thing for sure the board have certainly played a blinder for the Cosmens.
Death by a thousand cuts with no end in sight.
Highest they must have paid in the last 12 months, Feb 2024, c.85-90p so unless something material positve happens that could be the best outcome apart from a long haul recovery.
Any further bumps in the road ahead, wage increase demands, heaven forbid ALSA doesn't have a splutter though that would suit the Cosmens as the sp would plunge
"Do they need to be added to the equation under the 30% rule or can they be treated separately?"
Depends if they are acting in concert, your guess is as good as mine!
SP still getting hammered, not making one jot of difference there.
NA looks barely profitable, my main concern what kind of sale price is achievable in an enviroment of high interest rates and probably a forced seller, what's the alternative,... a rights issue??? 3x debt is close to 3.5 covenants.
Is it possible if they only receive derisory offer for NA, 300-400m as it's a fire sale/desperation not very profitable, interest rates higher for longer, funding for the aquirer more expensive, there might be some sort of fund raising if they can't sell NA or in combination with to shore up the balance sheet.