Member Info for John33

Bit underwhemed,...as far as I can see highest price they paid is c30p 29 May 2025

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mobico-MCG/share-news/Mobico-Group-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/96141679

I think any offer has to be highest price paid in the prior 12 months not sure what they have paid will need to check it out.

Reading that again ALSA needs to diversify IMO, CAN'T BE A ONE TRICK PONY.

https://www.bbvamarketstrategy.com/public/credit-desk-strategy/mobico-rating-deterioration-eod-trigger-possible-remedies/

'Mobico’s increased reliance on ALSA creates limited earnings visibility and potential capex pressure

Despite ALSA’s strong earnings profile, we note that Mobico’s increased reliance on ALSA exposes overall group earnings to idiosyncratic risks; most notably the expected intercity concession renewals in 2025-27 which results in limited visibility on earnings post-2027 in our view. Spain’s long-haul bus concession covers routes >100km and has faced numerous delays driven by (i) COVID-19, (ii) network remapping (redefining bundling of routes), and (iii) policy changes under Spain’s new mobility law (where Spain could pivot towards a more competitive model which would reduce costs and negatively impact ALSA who would face increased competition for contracts). Until the new law is passed and long-haul concession renewals have taken place, we remain cautious re. the sustainability of ALSA’s earnings profile and its wider impact on the group. We also note the prevalence of increased low-cost alternatives to coach transit in Spain, most notably high-speed rail where since 2020, Spain has opened its high-speed rail network to private operators (ending the monopoly of Renfe) where new operators have launched services on major corridors – intensifying competition and lowering fares for customers.'

22.05>23%

Which is still the elephant in the room.

At least the rns was not negative news but in the scheme of the debt burden need some news if/how/when they need to restructure the debt.

But no breakdown of €500 million revenue. What is it actually worth to MCG as it says run with local company joint venture.

More interested in a German resolution if/when/maybe.

The article Gypo posted,...

'pressure from funds attempting to trigger an ‘event of default’ on the senior bond.'

Way above my paygrade after reading and trying to understand it, I deduce the Apollo 13 crew,.. MCG BoD "we have a problem houston"... now applies!

They can't call the Hybrid as that may trigger covenant breach.

Maybe worst case scenario but, senior Bondholders may get 75%-100% back but the Hybrid only 0-7%.

I assume that would leave zilch for equity holders.

Options of equity raise £100m, PE bid, or ALSA bid.

Jim Lovell passed away recently maybe give Tom Hanks a call!

Down another 6%, falling off a cliff the last two days

Tanking today, now off c.12% , not a good sign, begs the question is it suggesting the hybrid bond holders are going to lose their shirts.

They are showing as 09 Sep 2025 here so why they are showing is a mystery

Loads more still going through I'm looking at ADVFN so waiting for delayed 15min trades to show up on this site, to see if there is something wrong with there prices, weird

Since 15:00 there are a load of trades 5k-12k going through c.25p, 2p below the prevailing price, v.strange indeed!

Since the results 09 Sep 2025 Deloitte having already announced they were stepping down,

"We have not participated in the audit services tender process which you are running and which we understand is still ongoing" We draw attention to section 7.2, which sets out our consideration of the control

environment, and our observations made relating to the Key Audit Matters included in

section 5 of our audit opinion in the Annual Report for the Group for the year ended 31

December 2024. There are no other circumstances which need to be brought to the

attention of members or creditors

So at the moment MCG do not have auditor, don't know what time frame these usually take but this RNS has certainly tanked the sp today.

The last results H1 09 Sep 2025 confirmed this was a going concern.

Nice to see it rise even it is inching up on lowish volume but maybe some have closed to let in rise, before shorting it back down. Germany really needs a resolution to make it viable, then there's the elephant in the room of the hybrid, in fact when you look at the all manner of problems they are facing UK etc it could be a herd of elephants.

Rob the NAV at FY24 was 35p, to get to 85p UK & Germany would need to be extremely profitable(unlikely any time soon) and no more hiccups at WeDriveU would also need to start motoring. Don't think this will see £2 as there will imo be a rights issue sooner or later. Sooner if the ball gets dropped, ALSA profit growth starting to slow. If the hybrid rolls over thats an extra £21M interest to service on to of the curent c.£90m charge.

40-50p would be an achievement given the state of the finances.

It's getting very close to last chance saloon.

Citadel Advisors Llc up again yesterday, not letting this go for now

Phil White summed the situation in a concise manner when he said "all options are on the table including disposals".

I may have miss understood him but that sounded like up the swanny without a paddle.

Got the impression he welcomes the challenge and it is going to be an uphill one.

Complete new board, whether it proves an impossible task to turn around Germany/UK, 6 months to find out should be enough.

They seemed optimistc about a resolution for Germany but the devil will be in the detail.

In the UK fighting with hands tied behind the back as the incumbent with new entrants getting the lucrative profitable 'cream' routes at MCG expense through favourable terms as the start up competitor, it's debatable whether it's even viable., a ball and chain!

What have they got to dispose of any real value, a fast growing but not very profitable WeDriveU or the crown jewels ALSA.

Any further setbacks, ALSA will have to be sold to yes you've guessed it the Spanish who have a blocking vote on any sale to other parties, though

can't see them letting it go into administration.

An ALSA man on the board overseeing it all!

Nice bounce off the lows today 24.4p, might get a retest in the coming days to test support but we'll see.

PhiL 'THE WIZARD' White will have to work some magic.

"Meanwhile sit back and relaxe debt was about 1.2B in 2019 and almost same in the range before"

Well there is the small matter of where interest were clost to zero!

............................................................

There is the accounting Tom Foolery off balance sheet hybrid debt 500m >real debt must be £1.8b.

Looks like they will be leaving it as late as possible up to Feb 2026 to roll, pay off, lots of uncertainty.

Germany with PTA's agreement will at best be allowed to break even, lumped in with the basket case UK.

One trick pony ALSA to service the debt at best until it gets a puncture

Firesale of WeDrive next on the block.

Are we looking at D4E at some stage?

Hybrid gonna hold this back,

All I can assume further pain/hits/fines/writedowns to come in Germany because of the shambles the infrastructure is in.

Eventually these problems will be in the rear view mirror and the SP might just start to look forward but for now it is still goosed and the shorts are probably all over it for the time being, oh and the not too small matter of the hybrid to be clarified as to what they are going to do with that.