Member Info for John33

Perhaps they could change their modus operandi and be incompetent to the upside that would be a novelty for this crew!

Offgrid, they have already recently stated guidance is for the lower end

What I don't understand is why would it take another 6 months to conclude agreement on Germain rail, they implied they were close to striking a deal well before now you would have thought all necessary legal paper work would have been good to go, just prolongs the uncertainty.

Sorry should have said,

Covenant gearing of 3.0x, prior to NA School Bus proceeds - expecting c.2.5x by year-end

To be honest the net debt covenant gearing I think here is still bad at the moment 2.8 needs to be under 3.5

SYNT

What is appalling they said the following two weeks ago and then announce they need capital raise.

'The Group's covenant net debt:EBITDA as at 31 December 2025 was 4.7-4.8x, well within the requirement of less than 5.25x.'

SYNT their chart is the same as MCG.

That couldn't happen here could it, MCG management have said they are concentrating on getting the debt down a long with operational performance, just makes one nervous.

Different sector have you seen SYNT today two weeks after anouncing their trading update results in line with expectations today they are in discussions with banks about capital raise, debt metrics are similar to here, net debt 10X market cap, two shorters who are also here.

I agree Paddy the management have been making all the right noises but remember when Phil White sat in on the video results before his appointment started, he almost sounded demoralised when he said they had been left with a massive task to turn around this failing company inherited from the predecessors(my words not his).

I expect there will be large further writedowns huge losses some already previously announced, maybe not cash losses but could still impair the balance sheet, net assets are currently £220m c.35p so could most of that be wiped out, we are all in the dark until the results day and how the market reacts.

Passengrer growth is all well and good, but have wafer thin margins been sacrificed, I don't know.

Have to admit shorts increasing is making me nervous, at 4.57% will be one of the most shorted stocks on the stock market.

I'm sick of 20-40% drops on results day.

Do they know anything, someone always know something, FY25 results to be announced 26 Feb according to their website.

I would like to think nothing would leak from insiders or auditors but who knows certainly not me.

Hoping for the best will see how the SP holds up in the run up.

Lse seems slow to update today I got the latest increase from

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0006215205/

Anyone have concerns about the shorts increasing again last Fri 06 Feb by c.660k GLG, Walleye

Jumbo, private investors invariably see through rose tinted glasses, not saying the SP can't appreciate but the debt is enormous and the worry is it is a value trap, it's been downhill from £4 must tell you something though there is now new management at the helm, and Arrowstreet continue to load up on the short side, they have added since Dec 2025 3m short, 5.5m in total it scares me as to what they know if anything.

LorenzoLynch, Fitch or Moody's or other recently wrote that by 2028 ALSA profits would be stagnating or going into reverse due to increased competition, mind you not sure how they can see that far ahead never the less that is what they wrote.

Wealthrasfer

"There may also be compensation that we dont know about that would have an additional cash impact".

The article in the German press seemed to imply there was some compensation,

When the RNS was released 29th Jan, there was nothing, Rob295 29 Jan 2026 17:07 on this thread contacted Investor Relations and got

the following back,..."IR confirms that the agreement is as in the RNS (ie no compensation). So looks like ending the blood letting took priority."

Good to see some positive SP movement, whole market is up though.

The thing with the German deal there are still 5yrs of losses/penalties to come on the RRX lines.

The RM lines might be profitable, but reading back on prior reports the board frequently mention

about mitigation with the PTAs ie hopeful of some compensation as the PTA was obligation bound

to reach a settlement with the operators if the circumstances were out of MCG control which to

a large extent they are, ie crumbling infrastructure, looks like the MCG board crumbled on that one

as no compensation is coming our way, it's gonna be a long hard slog in Germany. As for the UK remains to be seen if they receive anything for the old diesel buses,..I'm expecting a large impairment/writedown on that.

They may have changed it regards that RNS about the auditors but if so that goes to show how slack they are

as their website still states 26 Feb 2026!

https://www.mobicogroup.com/investors/

OK I'll take a stab at it, it was probably to prop the SP up keep the institutional investors onboard, they were in denial of the perilous state the company was in whilst banking their big fat salaries, couple of shysters if you ask me.

Are you on chase play mode that was over two years ago, it bares no relevance it is now 2026 put yourself on fast forward.

you should have asked that back then.

Stamp & Garat have gone.

It reads as if the board expect it to be profitable going forward. Any SP weakness could well be a good top up opportunity.

'The agreement, approved by the relevant governing bodies of the PTAs and Mobico, enables a material reset and derisking of its German rail business.

The agreement will support a long-term sustainable business going forward.'

Phil White, Mobico Executive Chair, said:

"The agreement is an important milestone for Mobico and a hugely positive step forward. It supports a long-term, sustainable future for our German Rail business and, combined with significant operational improvements, deliver clear benefits for our customers in North Rhine-Westphalia and the surrounding area

That was directed at you.