Member Info for John33

Are we due some good news (leak) or is it another rinse & repeat.

Compensation, part of the problem was shortage of drivers and then infrastructure or lack of it out of MCG control. So the fines were down to part MCG fault and part infrastructure. Both sides to blame explains why it's been dragging on for 3 years re. compensation, I don't know what to expect in the way of compo. if they are entitled to any though the board were of the opinion they are..

"general renovations planned by DB from 2026 will significantly affect train operation"

And by extension with the current contracts that means more fines which is absurd when it is clearly out of the control the operators.

An absoloute shocker of a contract signed by I believe it was Stamp who has gone.

It's gonna drag on for some time, Some compensation from the PTAs would be most welcome, been dragging on for 3 years.

Despite these successes, the framework conditions remain difficult. Hetzer explains: “In view of the current and upcoming challenges, full operation unfortunately does not automatically mean trouble-free regular timetable. In addition to the current construction sites, the general renovations planned by DB from 2026 will significantly affect train operation throughout NRW. We work closely with the SPNV task carriers to provide a reliable range of mobility for travellers even in this difficult infrastructure phase.”

The SP just seems to be following the chart channel down, probably until if any positve news out of Germany leaks or is announced.

"This will wipe out the balance of paper losses on NASB sale (-£250m plus gain on Forex of £100m) net £-150m."

The writedown there I thought was around £500m

'Fitch expects Mobico to retain most of the long-haul concessions given its strong market share and close to 100% historical retention rate in Spain. However, margins could decline significantly, and we assume lower earnings by around 20% in 2028 than in 2024'

....................................

I may be wrong but the way that reads to me is that they actually expect earnings/profits at ALSA will be 20% less than they are now which would mean a steep decline in profitability ex. growth. If so that is a massive decline in the ALSA business, am I reading that correctly?

Rob, revenue is vanity profit is sanity

ALSA revenue growth slowed to 4.1% increase, this growth was achieved against an excellent growth comparator of 23% in Q3 24.

WeDriveu now up against other service providers, losses on contract.

UK still looks terrible

Germany nicht gut

Whats not to like will the SP go up on relief rally

Was quite a swing in the SP today.

All coming to a head, I believe it was Garrat said(or similar words) they would not seek legal redress as that is not how to form business relationships, trust..

Past the point now it can't drag on any longer, PTA's will probably fine MCG again for been on strike not providing a service.

Have Phil White & co called time on negotiations, not before time?

PTA's probably waiting for MCG to go bust or accept measly compensation for the shize infrastructure out of MCG control.

How long will legal proceedings if they commence take and cost.

So ALSA margins could come under pressure, decline significantly, a major concern.

Fitch-estimated negative FCF, how are the supposed to pay debt down if FCF is negative.

No surprise the SP is dropping until they can demonstrate profit recovery.

Are we at the nadir in the SP, what ever will firepower have to say.

...............................................................................................................................................

'Fitch expects Mobico to retain most of the long-haul concessions given its strong market share and close to 100% historical retention rate in Spain. However, margins could decline significantly, and we assume lower earnings by around 20% in 2028 than in 2024. The Sustainable Mobility Law, approved by Congress in October 2025 and awaiting Senate ratification, introduces a concession system with mandated fare reductions, which will pressure margins on renewed contracts. The law's implementation timeline and final regulatory framework remain unclear.'

Liquidity and Debt Structure

'This is sufficient against GBP70 million short-term maturities and Fitch-estimated negative FCF of about GBP120 million for 2025 and positive FCF of GBP17 million in 2026. The next significant maturity is a GBP233.5 million private placement due in 2027'

The unionised doctors back for more money, not be long before the bus drivers will back,..please sir can we have some more or we will resort to strike action.

Whenever new leadership take over running the business there's always clearing the decks, kitchen sinking

Yeah could be a good day to put out bad news, Rachel Reeves Budget offers a distraction.

Might be a toss up which is the biggest mess, MCG or theUK finances!

Would not be surprised to see further writedowns with a hit to NAV. Latest NAV is I believe c.35p.

At the last video call Phil White came across quite despondent regards the state of the business(apart frm ALSA) with a massive challenge ahead.

Cosmens are running the show, but Mike Ashley enjoys playing games buying shares in failing companies, not sure if he buys the bonds as well and then when the company goes into or just before administration gets the company on the cheap, thing Debenhams, House of Frazer.

The do have form for saying/doing one thing then do an about turn, the dividend fiasco being pulled though that was the previous shower although being the largest holder by far Cosmens would have had some say on both paying in the first place then pulling shortly after.

The debt albeit very uncomfortably large is just say servicable for now, providing no missteps in trading.

Also the Hybrid bond, is creating uncertainty

400m, ....whereabouts currently unknown but as a thank you for his excellent service send to Ignacio Garat as golden goodbye!

All depends if there are some nasties about to drop then it would be to pay down debt, though MCG say no capital reaise will be needed,....... as yet, market is not happy continues to meander southwards.

The NASB was shocking as they had to write down something like £500m if memory serves correct for what it was on the books at(they paid for it) RI doesn't have to be massively discounted as per normal, Cosmens/private equity might be quite happy to underwrite at or around current SP to further position themselves for a full takeover, then again they migh not.

"JG or John, let’s assume they did a CR of some description today & raised say £200m"

It would hardly make a dent.

The continuing fall in the SP is making investors suspect there are further nasties to come out, clear the deck, the Q3 TU delayed compared to last year, the IR email replies re. why late? They say they want to bundle other news/ info in one go to possibly sugar coat Q3 or something else bad, conjecture on my behalf I admit.

ALSA can't go forever at the current rate of growth sooner or later competion will slow it down.

I guess they could do a raise say 3 new for 1 old at c.20-25 there's £400m, underwritten by the Cosmens which would make up for the shocking NASB sale shortfall. Whether they would allow pi's to participate is another matter and depends on the urgency,... Shorts don't seem in a hurry to close, 3% with others under 0.5%