Member Info for John33

For the record I am not short, and the IC article has it nailed on what is happening, they even say if the management pull it off it could be lottery style win, but the stock most certainly is not cheap unless the board can prove there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Paddy what has thrown me is it states there will be negative free cash flow until at least 2027, how are they going to get a grip of the debt without some dilution when it is due to be refinanced with a junk credit rating?

Cosmens must have some sort of plan whether it will be good for shareholder who knows.

I think they may have to look at selling UK coach for whatever they can get if it returns to profit and soon, WeDriveU also.

Excerpts below from IC 27 Mar 2026, doesn't make pleasant reading, is this just an outright gamble now teetering on administration?

The SP just looks like it is going to meander down to single figuers, unless the board can pull a rabbit out of the hat.

What surprised me is the IC article claims there will be negative free cashflow until 2027 and even delayed provisioning related to a lossmaking contract in Washington DC. If so the debt aint coming down anytime soon rather it might actually rise.

Mobico treats the hybrid bond as equity because technically it never has to be paid back. The banks therefore allow the company to exclude it from covenant gearing calculations, which flatters debt ratios. When treated as debt alongside leases, leverage is forecast to be 4.7 times in 2026.

And "even that measure does not include provisions, which could reasonably be expected to crystallise into cash outflows at some point in the future.”

A refinancing wall is also approaching as the group’s credit rating has slipped into junk territory. It faces £232mn in US private placement notes due in 2027, followed by a £250mn sterling bond in 2028. A £600mn revolving credit facility (RCF) matures in 2029, although it remains undrawn.

Management said its £265mn cash on hand and access to the RCF provide enough liquidity to cover the 2027 and 2028 maturities. However, Panmure Liberum’s Khoo warned that using both to pay the debt in full would severely erode the group’s liquidity buffer.

The notes maturing in 2027 and 2028 carry low legacy interest rates – around 1.9 per cent on the US private placements and 3.6 per cent on the sterling bond. When refinanced, Mobico will be borrowing with a junk rating at much higher interest rates given recent credit downgrades. That would worsen the trap of the hybrid bond.

If the cost of refinancing becomes too high, lenders might demand an equity raise or a debt-for-equity swap as a condition for providing new money.

That would risk completely wiping out current shareholders, although the most immediate existential threat to the equity comes from activist hedge funds attempting to trigger an event of default.

It all adds up to what Cosmens game is.

Shorts up again c.1m on 31 March.

I've noticed the short positions have been updating two trading days later lately, prior have as far as I have noticed was usually the next day.

26% according to IC

I look at the trades most days, there has definitely been a lot of late large trades recently, what has stood out is that they have been the same size on any given day, like yesterday 6x 1m not random amounts, what exactly it means I aint sure but the manner of trades got my attention.

Fish they have conntrol of 25%, can buy another c.5% > 30m shares to take them to just below 30% give or take, previously they increased usually 1% 0r less at a time, last was 8 October 2025 .27p.

I think someone definitely wants out, a distressed seller, yesterday 6x 1m late reported trades after hours, this has been going on for about two weeks where large blocks have been dumped, obviously a buyer as well,

could be any institution.

Cosmens must be skint, at these levels I thought they might increase their holding but as m007 has posted below, maybe they like MCG are also drowning in debt.

Who knows but the next news German PTAs signed off may give a lift or another chance to sell out, but the SP is just grinding lower week after week.

I am really surprised the shorts are increasing you would think they would be happy with what they have made but they look like they want to take ever lower, it may be just be momentum selling but the IC even alluded to it being shorted as if MCG is heading for the rocks, with ever more probable cash outflow losses to come a [part from ALSA keeping it afloat. Stock don't normally lose 95+% unless in a recession and heavily indebted, no recession since covid. Doesn't look like interest rates will be dropping anytime soon either,.....anyway I am trying to remain positive!

James many don't have £20k of new funds to put in a ISA, some may do. A lot of people do have shares in trading accounts because they have already maxed out their £20k allowance, so will no doubt sell whatever part holdings to the tune of £20k and reinvest in ISA to protect from CGT. The problem with MCG capital gains appear some way off .

Sorry a cash raise may not be imminent but,...IC article implied one is probably likely, pressure from banks.

A cash raise is imminent the IC article implied the banks/creditors could insist on one as part of a refinance, there just seems no end to the SP decline at the moment. The covenants x3.5 net debt and interest cover are too close for comfort, it appears as if the shorts have latched onto this some time ago.

The inflationary spike becasue of oil could last some time even if Iran back down, you can just see the bus drivers wanting another big rise or striking, just like last year.

It was the 23 Mar, 9X 500k reported after hours

On the 25 Mar, 4X 250k reported after hours.

Shorts adding and the hybrid bond has come off 10% over the last week, don't no what to make of it.

All I can think they are shorting expecting a default on the bonds re. IC article last week and/or a cash raise.

Those large trades reported after hours could just as easily have been when the SP was near it's lows early in the day.

In fact the same happened last week on two days large reported trades after hours one day of which there were 9X 500k trades.

There has to be a seller as well as a buyer, maybe an RNS holdings to follow.

'next week', I should have said in the lead up to April 6.

Unless something comes out of the blue positive, end to Iran war perhaps might help, the SP might just follow the chart down who knows,..that IC article summed up the state of the business is in debt wise. If there is a gound invasion all bets might be off.

James my guess is a lot of the ISA money going into MCG as you say from April 6 will most probably be just regurgitated MCG shares sold from dealing accounts next week and then reinvested into an ISA.

Nice freebie shares at the top table at no cost to them, 7m and 5m shares awarded.

Hybrid and the other bond have been trending downwards for the duratiom of March from their recent hights, more steeply over the last week or so.

Even the bondholdrs might take a hit if the worst transpires.

That IC article set out shareholders might be wiped out, bondholders taking any value left in MCG if it comes to that.

Trouble is the SP falls the most on my watchlist any given down day for the market, it is astonishing the fall from the spike to 32p recently as if it never really happened and the chart is just resuming normal service downwards.

It's quite worying where and how the world economy will be impacted if oil stays high for some time, a kind of new normal, inflation will be rampant, fuel hedges will run out at some time, bus drivers will be striking for a wage rise, it's like a vicious circle.

HMG finances are in such a bad state they will need to attract investors for the gilts.

Interest rates may have to go up to tame inflation which will, could hit the hybrid bond when it is due

to pay the coupon in February 2027, like a perfect storm.

All hail Sage firepower numero uno, guru of the markets!

We are not worthy!

Not one I really follow but I believe Rolls Royce gets paid by the miles flown by the planes with their engines, and during covid there weren't many planes in the sky and it was/is heavily indebted so there was no income to service their debt at the time.

We don't really know if Cosmens are acting in all shareholders interests or just their own,..fox guarding the hen house.

Are they waiting for MCG to be close to/in admin then pick up ALSA on its own backed by private equity, pay the banks back.

They could have bid way before now but have chosen not to. They must have an endgame/plan.

Are they waiting for MCG to be in single figures or are they truly hoping for a full turn around/on sustainable footing for Germany PTAs signed/UK/WeDriveU.

If recovery were to gather momentum the SP would be way above todays SP and would probably cost way more to take private.