Member Info for John33

Citadel Advisors LLC 0.71% 0.05% 25 Jun 2025

Not entirely accurate date wise,

Citadel Advisors Llc 0.66% 24 Jun 2025

Millennium Capital (Difc) Limited 0.74% 20 Jun 2025

Marshall Wace LLP 0.39% 20 Jun 2025

Glg Partners Lp 0.48% 6 Jun 2025

Firepower1 where do you get 5% shorted?..according to notifiable positions >0.5% it is only 1.25%.

There's probably more under 0.5% we are unaware of but you can't just pluck numbers out of thin air!

Short up again by c.800k

Upped above notifiable limit, probably quite a few below 0.5% as well

The length of time to come to an agreement is ridiculous, should just start legal proceedings to break the deadlock

From our perspective, and consistent with the views of rating agencies, refinancing the existing hybrid with a new hybrid that retains the equity credit is demonstrably in the best interests of all Mobico stakeholders. We believe management's cautious choice of language thus far has been deliberate. Naturally, they want to avoid committing to a "redemption," which could fuel speculation regarding either an equity raise or a deterioration in the senior credit profile to achieve the redemption.

Why not explicitly state a “refinancing” plan then? Simply put, doing so would introduce an unnecessary layer of complexity while the School Bus divestment is still in progress. Their current approach and measured communication provide them with crucial optionality until the 26-Feb-26 date. This flexibility also affords them valuable time to demonstrate incremental stabilisation across the UK and German businesses.

Https://substack.com/inbox/post/166705490?r=18htu4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

Some History

In 2005, National Express purchased Alsa from the Cosmen family. In return they received £149mn cash and a 10% stake in National Express[i] (purchase multiple of c.8.5x EBITDA). In Dec-05 the family used some of these proceeds to purchase a 14.1% stake in AC Hotels for €45mn[ii]. They’re rather secretive, so we don’t have a clear insight into the net worth of the family today, though for what it’s worth – and it’s not worth a lot – they’re #167 on a Spanish Rich-List with an estimated €370mn net worth[iii].

Only a few years after the sale to National Express, the company rejected an offer from FirstGroup[iv] after a consortium, led by CVC and the Cosmen family, made an all-cash £765mn bid. However, the bid was dropped and Stagecoach swooped in with an all-share merger offer. This ultimately fell through as the Cosmen family pushed for a rights issue to shore up the balance sheet[v].

Spread over just 4 trades in the last 33mins or so, could be late reported trades, not sure if that's good or bad.

Barneysmb, there is a 500m euro bond due Nov 25-Feb26. They state they wish to keep it, the interest rate on it will double from 4.25>8.5% adding an extra £21m interest charge, the alternative of redeeming it would mean close to breach of banking covenants so rock and a hard place springs to mind.

German PTA needs sorting pronto.

Secondly that only happens if the price goes against you ie up before you press buy it might be rejected or the stock is very illiquid, not the case here.

In case you had not noticed since 10am the SP has been going south so I doubt you would have had any difficulty buying into a falling share!

Utter tosh, change your broker, I don't believe you anyway!

I could buy all day long.

Bigjock36,...

"Very hard to buy down here managed to get £4K worth"

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What makes you say that? I've put dummie buy trades through all day ranging 10k 25k 50k all inside the spread even 100k was around about the spread.

OK yes I was referring to net debt.

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Treasury & cash management

Adjusted net debt* (1,202.5)

The Group has two key bank covenant tests; a 3.5x test for interest cover. At 31 December 2024, covenant gearing was 2.8x (FY23: 3.0x) and interest cover was 4.6x (FY23: 5.2x)

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With interest cover at 4.6x and covenant cover of 3.5x they really need to get a move on, looks precarious.

Maybe my misunderstanding but,...

If the net debt is £1.2b, from your points below nothing has changed the net debt of £1.2b will be the same and not £900m, interest charges may come down as there would be no hybrid.

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1. The best course of action in my view, as it was nearly 2 years ago, is to sell the UK business for whatever it can get. Bus and Coach plus assets. This wont raise a lot but it might potentially be enough. West Midlands will need the assets (depots and vehicles, people and equipment, knowledge...) for their franchise model. There is some value in the coach business too. Break these two up and sell them to First Group and Flix etc....

2. Then there will be some improvement to the German books at some stage in the next 12 months or so. The full £200m wont be recovered no doubt but expect something, maybe £50m - £100m?

Realistically then from 1 and 2, I think that they could achieve £200m +.

Add to the NASB cash and theres enough to repay the Hybrid.

Leaving the regular debt of c. £900m. Which is historically the kind of debt managed over many years.

The market/shorts are effectively saying we are taking the sp to single fingers as the Hyrbrid bond date approaches.

Need to get out of the German contracts, reputational damage sweet FA if you are going under, drastic lifesaving surgery is needed.

The signals are flashing RED for railway infastructure and the going concern viability of the business as it drowns in debt.

SumOverHistories,

And I use the word 'pulse' lightly as the way the sp keeps falling let us pray Mobico does not flatline.

I agree with your sentiments towards the BoD although those principally responsibe have left, well the two, CEO for falling asleep at the wheel and the Finance guy who deserved to be hung drawn and quartered by his b0ll0ck5 for the German fiasco.

As for the buy back maybe you could start the ball rolling and inform the board when to commence as I don't think they are aware of it yet!

Perhaps when the price has risen sufficiently you could underwrite a rights issue as I'm sure you have your finger on the pulse all things Mobico!

I missed the word covenant but yes that is what I meant

I have had a scroll through the previous AGM's and it has been voted on before only now has it looked more likely to be used as it was during covid.