Member Info for John33

No I'm just a humble pi with a reasonable size investment relatively speaking, poor BOD decisions and leaving us on tenterhooks with the due results, suspension of trading eom which has now been negated.

As for WG. no position but it can't go unoticed how well MW has targeted both stocks.

Hoping for the best but fearing the worst.

07 Nov 2024 Q3 Trading update

If it's on track as in the q3 update, if any sale is forthcoming even in the middle of Bank of America's estimate GBP200 to GBP700 million with a base case at around GBP400 million. it will really be scraping the barrel in terms of the debt.

'North America revenue grew by 19% vs. Q3 23

In School Bus, Q3 trading was strong with revenue growing by 11% due to rate increases and

additional route volumes. The process for the planned divestment is on track, and an update will be

provided in due course.'

Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0006215205/

They can claim they can refinance that bond due in c.November time, but this is starting to look more like the Titanic with a Spanish Mr Mainwaring at the helm,...and i'm the mug still clinging on expecting salvation! 90p a few months ago is looking like it was godsend to jump ship, instead that linkin article is a good as saying they are holed below the water line and sinking fast, scumbags! I'm half expecting a placing for the insti investors, they have previous for that.

Thanks for that linkedin article it is indeed very damning, maybe there is further kitchen sinking to come before it all sinks below the surface. This stock has been nothing but setbacks and stress as an investor mores so with the radio silence.

I must have missed this from last year but very underwhelming if this is what they are hoping to achieve.

Old news from 21 August 2024 but those numbers from Bank of America are vey poor to what investors on here are hoping for.

..................................................................................................

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/MCG/mobicos-us-bus-sale-could-be-positive-catalyst-depending-on-the-price-kyjk2bmhnyy1ooo.html

Mobico also said the formal sale process for its North American School Bus business is underway following a strong bidding season where routes won exceeded routes lost for the first time in over a decade.

Away from the results, Jefferies thinks investor attention is likely to remain focused on the bus disposal.

"We continue to expect the disposal to prove a material positive catalyst, with our recent analysis demonstrating that even a trough multiple would still drive material deleverage and equity upside."

Jefferies believes strong pricing on NASB contracts is likely supportive for both disposal interest and valuation potential.

Peel Hunt acknowledged progress at the US bus unit. It pointed out the operation is now more adept at identifying under-utilised fleet and reallocating vehicles to more suitable contracts to improve efficiency.

Driver recruitment has also been successful, with 21% more drivers hired, the broker pointed out.

"However, we remain concerned that the value realised from a disposal of North American School Bus, after fees and provisions, would allow the group to delever sufficiently," it cautioned.

Bank of America estimated an enterprise value of GBP200 to GBP700 million with a base case at around GBP400 million.

Peel Hunt has a 'hold' rating on Mobico. Jefferies and Bank of America rate Mobico 'buy'.

Hope not but sp suggests this turkey is well and truly plucked and stuffed.

Is rarely going to be good news, appalling the way this playing out, surely they know whether the accounts will be released by eom, if not there should be an rns.

sp falling off a cliff at noon back into the downtrend of the channel, maybe the news is starting to leak.

In an uncanny way it mirroring the debacle at WG.

Normally March was the designated date of these results.

Last year they were delayed because of the German balls up.

18/04/2024 Mobico Group PLC Notice of FY23 Results Presentation

22/04/2024 Mobico Group PLC Q1 Trading Update

22/04/2024 Mobico Group PLC Full Year Results

02/03/2023 National Express Group PLC Final Results

10/03/2022 National Express Group PLC Final Results

Not a whisper as to why they're dragging their heels.

MarcusMontana

Posts: 22

No Opinion

RE: TaxToday 17:45

Hi Robert

"Tax

Lots will be selling today to buy back next week."

I do not believe so. They may sell to register a loss for tax reasons but under the 'wash sale rule.' If you buy or acquire a substantially identical stock within 30 days before or after you sold the declining stock for a capital gains tax loss, you generally cannot deduct the loss.

The legal thiefs at HMRC are wise to this.

Marcus

.......................................

Marcus what are you talking about, never heard of the 'wash sale rule.' !

The 30 day rule ie if you sold today in the current tax year and buy back the same amount of shares within 30 days all that is determined/altered is your buying price which would be say next week if you buy back next week rather than when you previously bought the shares before you sold them, the tax year would be this year 24/25 for a loss or gain. Only your buying price is determined/changed, ie the sell price/amount of shares is in affect before the buy price ie in reverse.

Can see any potential buyer of NA walking away citing market turmoil,..if there is one. covid lows for most of the market could follow now China retaliating.

Throw an invasion of Taiwan into the mix and all bets are off!

If they aren't published this month it seems likely shares will be suspended on 30 April 2025.

Kind of hoping they are finalising the sale of NASB but that would not be a reason for holding back reults.

Fearing the worst as this company has been a constant disappointment for several years.

There must be a risk with the balance sheet under such a heavy debt burden, cash flow negative c.$200m,

To pay $150 million in legacy claims over three years,....In talks with lenders to refinance debt!

Without an asset sale the company may cease to be trading in the coming 12 months, indeed the BoD and the auditors have to take a 12 month view as to the sustainability of the business,..the current bunch have proving to be way out of their depth, confidence is shot, it has to be sale to Sidara or the alternative could well be administration.

All in my opinion

Possibly after hours today,..havin said that there were previous extensions with the prior takeover activity, and they made their excuses and walked away, BoD must be trying to negoiate golden goodbye, I suspect still troughing til the v. end, 60-70p tops?

All in my opinion

Trumps inflationary tariffs and the the recent (Jan-March) dollar - GBP decline won't help any sale value upon conversion.

Garat said something along the lines 'sale was progressing/on track'.

The sp certainly isn't progressing, looks to be on track for the buffers at the rate of decline.

Sells went through today, 3 of which @63.5 in the space of 8 seconds, do hope it's not someone with inside info.

Clinging onto blue, would be red today (probably finish red) if wasn't for the mkts bouncing back after the last two days falls, fall will probably resume tomorrow. It only changed direction last time when it hit 46p because they said they were off loading NASB and interest rates looked to be on a firm downtrend, that's since changed somewhat as inflation genie is back out the bottle.

The board have been a sleep at the wheel and incompetent for years, dare I say it has been playing out like WG. intended or unintended, should sell the lot off part by part.

Since it topped out again at 90p it's had the whiff of inside info with the price action

The wider market is on the end of a mullering no doubt, all my watchlist is down, MCG down the most! Never fails to disappoint.

I'm still holding out for a decent price re NASB, barring that Cosmens may just make an offer for ALSA, they control c.25% so it#s ripe for them if the debt is too onerous for MCG.

Needless to say Garat has played a blinder,..for which side you might ask?

Not sure if it has much baring on the NA sale but during covid FGP took 16 months to agree a sale of its NA bus

FirstGroup PLC Strategic update - North American contract businesses

16/12/2019 7:00am

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/firstgroup-FGP/share-news/FirstGroup-PLC-Strategic-update-North-American-contract-businesses/81355921

FirstGroup PLC Sale of First Student and First Transit

23/04/2021 7:00am

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/firstgroup-FGP/share-news/FirstGroup-PLC-Sale-of-First-Student-and-First-Transit/84897698