Member Info for John33

For 4 yrs!, you may be in from the 60s my average is closer to 120 but dilution will kill any sp recovery here

The sp is in freefall because the market does not believe it can service the debt if the board release further dire news, it's one screw up after another, 4 yrs of decline check the chart what does it tell you?

Does the mkt cap decline direction of travel not tell you anything, debt is a killer, free money 0% days are long gone. As for Canarybus they have paid top dollar with a anti tourism gathering steam.

NA is a firesale or a cash raise of sorts soon, ii's will have already been sounded out, news leaks so massive dilution is a strong possibility.

The ceo is out of his depth but will soldier on collected massive remuneration and benefits for failure until removed to the detriment of shareholders.

4 yrs of failure is possibly culminating in MCG on the point of massive dilution in the next few months. Shareholders should be up in arms, could all be avoided sell ALSA to the highest bidder now must be worth £1.5b - 2b, all debt wiped out and turn around NA and what's left and sell off, all funds returned to shareholders, must be at least a further 150p share.

We can all see where the sp is headed,..0p and dilution, bust, in my opinion CEO is only interested in collecting his pay for as long as possible until kicked out by which time shareholders will be wiped out.

Institutional investors relieve him of his duties before it is too late!

Begs the question but If a cash raise is needed could it be the plan is to starve MCG of said cash and leave only viable option a firesale of ALSA to them.

"The only logical reason for Cosmens not putting pressure on the ceo is that they hope to get Alsa for next to nothing. Ie as part of a financial restructuring or something else. "

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Yep that's the Mike Ashley playbook , takes stakes giving the impression a takeover is coming but then the sp drops and drops and then admin, Ashley then picks up what he wants out of administration

Citadel Advisors LLC 0.50% +0.01% 29 May 2024

GLG Partners LP 0.70% +0.10% 28 May 2024

20% fund raise during covid so drop will be less than 88% whn factored in, still mahoosive all the same.

C.430p > 55p,...88% drop!

FOOKIN HELL!!!

My concern is the market invariably gets it right, it's still dropping.

If the NA sale does not happen, heaven forbid cash is needed, Cosmens may block, hold to ransom demand ALSA for knockdown price and MCG may limp on but shareholders decimated.

The ceo has no skin in the game, just milk like a cash cow through bonus + remuneration etc. The UT will probably drop the sp, finish at the days low.

No end in sight to the sp descent, the ceo should walk.

April FY results:- In March 2024 the acquisition of CanaryBus was formally completed significantly increasing our presence in the Canary Islands, which has a significant tourism market......

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There were mass protests against tourism in Canary Islands on April 20, let's hope that will not be another own goal by the CEO!

FGP proposed sale , RNS 23/04/2021 headline multiple of 8.9x combined FY20 EBITDA, c.£3.3bn ($4.6bn)

MGC, FY 2023 EBITDA £386.0m, 8.9x = £3435m minus £1.2b net debt = £2,235m divide 614m shares = 364p share price.

Really does put into perspective the shareholder destruction.

under the CEO.

There is no break down of the EBITDA regionally, but rather than offloading NA, maybe ALSA should go or will Cosmens block sale as they are waiting to pick it up for peanuts. Begs the question are some shareholders more equal than others.

Could it be the board are being pressured into accepting near enough 230p by ii's. The mere fact they are evaluating means 230p is close to the price they will now accept, in my opinion.

"This will soar down 1.25",...An oxymoron if ever I heard one.

Sorry should have said Covenant net debt of £987.1m

Realistic

In comparrison to FGP USA sale a few yrs ago all kind s of sale value for NA was banded around up to $1.5B or so, low interest rates then for the aquirer to borrow at, times change, being relastic in todays climate if we expect the sale range to be at the low end are we talking £3, 4, 5, 6, or $800M.

Surely even at the low end $500M would make a dent in the net debt of $900M.

I thought it was prior 12 months, if it's 6 they might as well wait a few months, if the sp craters 10p, then offer a small premium.

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Requirement for particular forms of consideration: If:

the bidder acquires for cash any interest in shares in the target company during the offer period; or during the offer period and within the 12 months prior to the commencement of the offer period, the bidder acquires shares for cash which represent 10% or more of the relevant class; or in the view of the Panel a cash offer is necessary in order to ensure that all holders of the securities of the target company of the same class are afforded equivalent treatment,then the offer must be in cash (or include a cash alternative) at not less than the highest price paid by the bidder during the offer period or during the offer period and the preceding 12 months (as appropriate).

https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk#stakebuilding

Would not be surprised if there is another profit warning in the next few months. Premptive action could be cash raise or ALSA sale, the further the sp decline the more the market is signalling this eventuality in my opinion.

Is there any scenario where they might not bid, becasue the market knows they are getting close to the 30%, that's why itrose to 93p previously on the stake building but seem uninterested that a bid might materialise, or what Cosmens intentions are?

85-93p

Would have to be a maximum paid prior 12 months c.85-93p