Member Info for squatlover2

Surely this signing was the definition of priced in though. They had agreements months ago. I am not expecting any moves today.

Citadel reduced shorts by 0.03%. so increased by .07% on Friday, decreased by .05% on Monday and today's was a smaller decrease. I think someone is testing the depths of the market. I dont think anyone would trade that way for profits.

It's impossible to time. Shorts want to unwind when there is bad news. Citadel tried unwinding on Thursday but the price went up 15% on closing 0.07% so they opened them again. Today, over half the trading day is over and 400k shares have traded in total. 0.05% of the float is 300k so you can imagine what would happen if they wanted to close everything at once. Since they can't do that, they need to wait for an event for someone (retail, institution) to sell them 6-7% of the float or 35-40 million shares in one go at the current price.

I've had this opinion for a while. It has become the shorters plaything. If they cut shorts by a little it shoots up, if they increase it drops like a stone whenever they like. No other players in the market.

This market is amazingly thin. Citadel reduced short on Thursday by 0.07% and price goes up 15%. On Friday they increase their short by 0.05% and the price drops by 8.5%. I doubt they are predicting the top and bottom of the price range, and think that the market is really that thin.

Probably should read my posts before you accuse me of being short dave

Private investors do have an effect in these low volume environments. Less than half a million pounds traded today so far, much of that is liquidity provides moving the price up and down to encourage trading. So here we are. Wake me up when someone decides to pick up a stake else we are stuck here for a long time.

I doubt that the board will accept a 35p bid. They won't make enough on their shares and options at that price. Majority of the institutions but their price is a lot higher. Sure, some of them averaged down a small holding in the 20s, but average price will be far higher.

I don't really see that. I expect the shorts moving the price down until they see the usual Spanish broker codes on the bid. They will then close their shorts just before they get to those blocks of trades. Probably very possible to do with a thin market and level 3 with a record of which broker IDs the institutional holders use. Small traders get wiped out this way.

I think that the shorters have realised that about 0.2-0.3% of the company is traded on any given day so if they increase/decrease the short by a small amount they control the price.

Their 2027 repayment is about 200-250m and they have that cash on hand and are getting 150m fcf. I don't see dilution to repay that. Similar repayment in 2028, so if they are making 150m-200m per year and they have cash on hand let alone more they can borrow, I don't see them diluting at low share prices.

Why isn't the fcf enough? If they spend it all paying back a part of the debt over 20 years that's something. If they show that they are committed to reducing debt then that stabilises the company and the share price goes up from distressed levels, and the CEO will hit his goals. Why take a risk with the FCF if there is a clear route to a higher share price (which he is KPId) on? At the moment the market is pricing them in as going bust. If they avoid that, they have won.

Much needed relief for me. Watching mobico cling into the low of the day was frustrating. We should be well over 30p. After results we were at 32, and with a proven CEO we should be much higher. The bond is still depressed. If confidence comes back with a series of results that show sustained profit, this should even higher as the bond recovers, let alone news from Germany.

I wouldn't get too excited. A 1% move for another share is equivalent to a 5% move in mobico.

The seller who was unloading blocks of 1 million shares seems to have disappeared/dried up (I saw 9 blocks of 1 million shares sold over 2 days) last week. If they had more to offload I'm sure they would have offloaded today.

All the news prior to the low was good. No bankruptcy in next few years, competent CEO with good relevant track record in place. Once the war risk passes we should see this steadily climb up. Unless trump does something weird (which he does consistently) that should be the low.

I don't think the new CEO and old COO would be willing to take on the role if he knew he was going to get steamrolled (he has a clear view of the accounts). He also timed his succession once the Germany negotiations had made progress. There should be a way forward though the share price does not share in the sentiment.

So they've reversed all the gains on this share then. Time to wake me up next half report then. Not selling!

Last 6 months (LSE chat has a laggy interface)

I'm holding on until the shorts feel as pain as I did over the