Member Info for squatlover2

Nice try firepower

The former CEO was an interesting choice. TNT express and FedEx, so he was a logistics guy who tried his hand at railway and coach transport.?Hopefully Phil white is a better fit.

It looks like a group of funds with lower holdings have been selling at least since it was 40p, probably about 200k per day which has put constant pressure on the share price. It's been just under 100 days of this, so about 20m sold or about 10-15% of shares. Considering they didnt cross any notification barriers that should be mutual funds. Also considering the l

23p is a good average though. I sit at just under 30 so the share price needs to recover by 50%!

I agree with this - what is the Cosmens buying average? I know they received a lot when Cosmen sold to National Express, but I have read they were buying over 100, at 80/90, at 60 and again now at 30, with smaller quantities at the lower prices. I expect their buying average is closer to 90 so they will want a takeover above this to sell. I checked institional buyers as well. Some of the smaller holders have trimmed slightly (~5% of holdings) but net moves for the bigger holders is positive (so probably smaller holders have sold out). Interestingly Blackrock, UBS picked up a lot in April and JO Hambro increased their stake massively after the drop.

You never know, Firepower is probably working for an entity that is contracted indirectly by the Cosmens so they can scoop shares up at their target price

What does 0.86% short interest represent? The number of shares in Mobico or %AUM of the shorting company?

I bought £6000 worth and it moved the share price by 0.5p (about 1.5%). They can't buy £10M without spiking the share price drastically.

Cosmens had a 10% stake worth 140M. They spent about ~115M getting to up to 19%. They spent more getting it to 24% probably spending 100M or so. Their stake cost them 350M or so. I would suspect they are hoovering up shares now and will try and buy everyone out for a bargain price. From what I have seen, its usually about +50% of the average 3 month share price. So its in their interest to let the price dwindle and get the average price under 30, then offer 45p to buy everyone out. I think the board would be a few sandwiches short of a picnic to accept, but looking at the CEOs replacement on the earnings call, I wouldn't be surprised.

Can't believe I get a chance to get my average down below 30p... Now time for the butt clench....

Doesn't seem too bad. EBITDA 426M, minus the 122M bus sale. Thats ~300M. They sold it for 5x EBITDA. By the same scale, this should be 1.5bn, with a debt of 1.1bn (1.4 minus 0.35). In my simple mind this should be worth 400M. Lots of potential areas to turn around - the German rail contracts (who decided to bid for those has a lot to answer for), and the UK coach business.

I've now joined everyone hoping for a turnaround with a sizable fortune. Here's to burying my head in the sand for the next few months!