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Sadly it was exactly that - some MF type nonsense.
Any T/O attempt from NCM will be met with some serious counter offers from others and may even cause a T/O attempt on them (They are undervalued and are a potential target).
It will also do some serious reputational damage to NCM and will make any future JVs they try to enter into difficult.
It is a poorly researched article that has now put Proactive on a questionable footing. Where is the 'rife speculation' before the article was published. None evident, I'm afraid.
Whatever 'they' are up to is anybody's guess - whoever 'they' are!
Great post Hydro.
Also, great to see the board full of the positivity we were seeing this time last year. It might be a reflection of the human condition that good times bring good vibes, but I sincerely hope that the back-stabbing and general malaise of the last few months is behind us.
Many, many LTH's have stopped posting but the last two sessions, with 500+ posts a day, have proved to me that the interest in our beautiful little company is still there.
Here's hoping that the course is now set for calmer waters and the good ship GGP is now full steam ahead to the promised land.
I'm personally convinced we will see our ATH surpassed by Xmas. Simply because I refuse to react to the BS and frothing naysayers, just breathe and refer to the fundamentals. Fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals. And guess what dear reader? Every single one of those pesky fundamentals point in one direction.....a multi-asset, multi-million pound company, with a fiercely loyal backbone of multi-millionaire shareholders.
As the somewhat mystical mushroomkid used to say....we know our onions.
GLA - Dodge.
So I think all shareholders need to think long and hard what an approach at 28p, 35p, 50p would mean to them. Do you take the money or do you want to see what is inside the box (very old reference for some). Is this a trade for £10,000 or is it something that you will NEVER repeat and could make your extended family forever grateful long after you have gone? Sadly if you have less than a million shares in GGP you arent going to have much of a voice., despite what it could mean for you. Just the way the maths work. But lets say you have over 10m shares, maybe 5m, then I think Shaun might want to know your thoughts.
For me I am going to let him know that I dont want a deal at any price this year or next. Not until we know what really is in greater Havieron. There is no point in saying any number higher than 50p cos there is no way NC will be offering that this year. This will give Shaun some good information and might just strengthen his position if Sandeep puts the call in.
One other thing that could happen of course is that someone beats Sandeep to it and bids for NC. That would be fun as Sandeep would have to go from the ultra cautious, conservative CEO to have to lift his skirt and show the world what he has been hiding from us in those drilling reports and internal growth projections.
Finally if you think what I have said is total tosh, then what was Proactive doing flying that kite about going the whole hog and buying GGP? Was it just some MF type nonsense?
IMO it was at NCs request to see what gives.
Here ends my 'magnificent octopus'. Baldrick.
Good afternoon everyone.
This could be my most important post since I joined LSE.
I am grateful to Hydrogen for his approx 8.30 post and a few others since who have been expounding on the NC takeover theory.
In the past few months a lot of the trading hasnt made a lot of sense to me and I have regularly been pushing back on my good friend Hydrogens conspiracy theories in private. I just thought we had a classic case of more sellers than buyers.
The proactive post of approx yesterday has cleared the air for me. In the words of that odious Australian 'Can you see what it is yet', well no I couldnt. Maybe I still cant but something does add up and make me very very concerned.
So here goes. NC, knowing that there sp is way undervalued (they have said so in virtually every presentation this year) are worried of an approach. This was alluded to in an excellent earlier post today. The money that any miner of Iron ore, uranium, gold or copper has been making this pat 18months has been astronomical. Major miners arent very good when they have lots of cash. Many have been giving wads back to shareholders, but they have done that, so what next. Well NC is cheap, has a fantastic pipeline for those in the know, in the industry. Maybe a somewhat nationalist Aussie govt would not allow a Barrick or a Newmont to buy the country's biggest gold miner. But an Aussie solution with BHP, Rio, Reinhart or Fortescue would be 'welcomed'. Maybe Rios are still in the doghouse.
So, NC and their advisors know they are at risk, so they need a solution to make themselves bigger and less attractive. One is the 'shock and ore' (stolen from Nick Mather), of announcing three PFSs on one day. The other is to acquire GGP before the next MRE is announced. Maybe they couldnt do this before the PFS cos of privileged information, but if they havent started work on the Dec MRE, then maybe thats ok. The lesser proposal would be to buy the 5%. Now, of course there is the unwritten code that majors dont go hostile on juniors. But what if you are desperate?
So NCs advisors instigate a programme to get the GGP sp lower. This entails day trading, spreading false gossip through the chat rooms and obviously they are helped by the sector being horrible and Speedys good friends at JPM doing their stuff on the gold price.
I think it might be tough for SD to negotiate his way out of giving up the 5%, but he has a chance of defending the takeover.
If this approach happens NC will use the line about x premium over the 30 day vwap. 40% is a 'normal' bid premium which might mean 28p. if you are like me and other lths you will know that this is daylight robbery. Shaun might be able to defend 28p, but can he defend 35p without a lot of help? Thats my worry.
I have no idea what the chances are of all this playing out, but if its a significant concern then it doesnt matter that its a possibility and not a probability. Cont'd.
Tymers.
What are we,selling. We wont know for years whats down there. Its just speculation from the get rich quick hopefuls.
Its not happening
Thanks for sharing the document…..time to get into the weeds.
Thanks Hydro and all other knowledgeable posters, it was worth breaking my self imposed LSE weekend ban just to read that. Gla
I think that has worked. That'll give some of you guys enough information to digest over the weekend.
Have fun : )))))
Hi StellaBob I hope this works
https://www.dropbox.com/s/s99powt3rsqqg5p/a47314-1.pdf?dl=0
Back in March I posted someone would try to buy NCM, Aug/Sept, so I was wrong. Still expect it will happen, early 2022.
This is a complex topic, and I make no claim to deep personal understanding. I did though discuss (in late August) the impact of Basel III with a former colleague who ran (at one point) a high-profile precious metals fund. He said:
- don't be quick to accept the hype on this topic as it is being driven HARD by the marketing teams of retail bullion dealers
- retail is a massive market in the US where gold ownership is tied-in with gun-toting Trump supporters etc...
- as with every narrative the retail dealers have pushed over the years, the outcome is always PM prices roofing
- there are equally credible arguments that such changes might force the POG lower
- the wholesale/professional market doesn't see either as likely
- specifically the banking sector is heavily researched/analysed and it is not credible to think the potential balance-sheet impacts have been missed
- everywhere but London implemented the NSFR changes in June 2021 (*this was news/surprising to me)
- London was scheduled to implement the changes in Jan '22, but an "exemption" has been secured
- the scope and duration of this exemption remains unclear
- the exemption may be subject to challenge as it confers a material competitive advantage on the London market
- story is still developing and should be watched
My take is that the popular narrative on the PI "circuit" is over-simplified, and can be discounted.
DYOR etc.....
Canary. You are on the right track. The suitors will want all of Hav which I anticipate part if the process will be for Newcrest to acquire 100% of hav prior to Newcrest being acquired. The only question at what price?
Thank you all very much for the sp predictions and that brilliant piece by Hydrogen and Bamps.
I now have more understanding of what I have invested in and hope the answers to my questions has given others confidence to buy, but more importantly hold for the long term. Myself like many others I'm sure, have seen portfolios take a large hit this year. I have about 30 odd in my portfolio and although overall have made good gains, have seen a significant reduction on value. I have decided next week to have a clear out of some of those bad performing stocks and increase here. GGP are already a significant percentage of my portfolio but I'm happy to increase. I believe that there is definitely a sector change happening and precious metals producers / explorers are the future. GGP in my opinion are a once life time opportunity and even after a couple of days of increases have a huge upside.
Thanks again.
I think that Newcrest is already fighting off potential suitors for take-over, and it is getting close to going public / hostile
I am Assuming that all of GGps value lies in Hav ,.
If we think that sometime in the next couple of years GGP will be 1£ sterling then that means we are worth. 4.2 ish Billion, at a lazy 2/1 to Australia dollars that circa 8 billion for 30%
So NCM share of HAV at 70% , will be valued at not far south of their closing Market Cap on Friday. Circa 20 billion
Essentially give or take a billion or so , buy Newcrest you get 70% of Hav and everything else comes for free.
Whoever wants to takeover NCM will be talking to the II’s that have holdings and IMO will be saying something like, take a30-50% premium on Fridays SP , buy shares in us to compensate for NCM being delisted and you will do very well indeed.
Hence the big reveal next week to try and show value going forward.
This is all my own speculation, but you can't have GGP valued in the billions and Newcrest SP staying where it is, without someone wanting to take advantage.
I will be holding and looking on with great interest.
HeresHopin hey, filter and ignore, that's the key. Come back on Monday as many do now, not worth the arguments over the w/e, just read its past post history noting to say about anything worth while so ignore. :-)))
Have a nice w/e, see ya Monday as logging off too before the punch ups start LOL.
ATB
Tom :-))
Been here for 4 days and falling out with respected members already.
Hi All. First of all thanks hydro for a great post.
Yesterday a poster asked "what is Basel111". So many posts i cannot remember the posters name. Here is my interpretation of these new regs that must be conformed to no later than 2nd Jan 2022. The new regs are being put into place (some say the BIS has been forced to by China and Russia) to reign in the $trillions derivative market and prevent a melt down due to counterparty risk. At the moment trading desks can leverage their positions by 100s%. If the trade goes against them and they default due to lack of funds the loss is passed on (counterparty risk) Basel111 demands traders have sufficient liquid funds available to cover potential losses. These regs are not specifically aimed at the PMs market but it will have a significant effect on it. It will be unprofitable to naked short, or long, the PMs market and paper trading will be reduced to such an extent that the manipulations will cease (hopefully). With the COMEX and the LBMA basically redundant the PMs market will revert to supply and demand pricing and (in my view) rerate much, much, higher. As this date draws near volatility will escalate with a gradual increase in price and as the new year dawns we should see prices above $2000/oz and rising. Unless Bitcoin takes over and gold is relegated to wedding rings only. The last sentence is tongue in cheek.
This is my interpretation and i would love to hear others perspective on what is a very complicated topic. ATB Speedy
lebugue-addick
My son lives in Karrinyup in Perth -Karrinyup is an aboriginal word for "where bush kangaroos graze "
ATB Jonno
Thanks to all genuine holders for encouraging others like myself to keep the faith. You find a lot out about people in the bad times and so many great posters here are owed a huge debt of gratitude
Yesterday I enjoyed a long awaited reunion with 2 great pals in Manchester. One introduced me to GGP in 2018 the other I introduced to GGP in 2019. Suffice today we had a brilliant day in the sun
Have a great weekend all
MFU
50
mark - I suspect "punchimup" is a tongue in cheek recognition by Newcrest of the aboriginal language, although somewhat distasteful in 2021 given the great strides companies are going to in recognising the rights and traditions of indigenous species.
The suffix "......UP" means "place of". I have regularly visited WA in recent years (not since late 2019 though) and have come across names like:
Cowaramup - believed to be derived from the Noongar word cowara, meaning purple-crowned lorikeet;
Joondalup - "place of whiteness or glistening"
Cooloongup - "place of children" etc
Is it just me or does the sky seem that much bluer and the sun that much brighter this morning?
I might even rush outside in a minute singing 'The Hills are Alive' like Julie Andrews and Holden Hairyone at the same time.
Hi Spades
Yes I’ve been referring to it many times, Paddy gave me a copy, there’s no email link that I know of.
SaS very interesting.
Love some of the names of prospects I’d not seen before.
Punchimup
Hairyone