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Dayster, there really isn't much to say. The assets have been proven up and derisked and are now in the process of being sold. This is the final stretch, now we're just waiting to hear what deal has been negotiated. Whilst that's going on the company is in hibernation to minimise opex, so not much to discuss.
This board used to be a good read with lots of informative commentary, sadly it's now inundated with childish comments and remarks. Lots to be frustrated with in Condor but if you can't do it without resorting to petty playground name calling then just don't bother - it says more about the poster than anything else
You've been a member on this BB for 2 days, and with one post. We know who you are..
- I have been saying for a long time that Mark should be removed, as he is incapable of even running a bath without causing trouble.
- Hannah is as flexible as a banana.
- Jim desires to live forever.
Personally I believe that with a 400 million NPV, then a Market Cap of 200+ million is perfectly possible. I am not going to go into any more sustance than that, but Exciting Times!!!!
Ddd, I think your $150 m is do able. However I think you are light with 200 m shares by conclusion. You also make no allowances for expenses like sale Costs, mc new bonus or the 15% tax that other asset sales have incurred. Personally I round up to a possible 20% for deductions. I make an assumption regarding the 15% tax but it is on two nica asset sales I have seen including one of our own.
I have highlighted before continental gold sale to zijin in Colombia. Very similar jurisdiction in many ways. Sold at the gold/gold company peak 2019/2020. Reserves of 2.6 m compared to cnr 600 k and mine fully funded and near completion. Sold for 1 b dollars. 11 m oz resource with further exploration upside.
I may be cautious or indeed a doom monger and will be more than happy if that turns out to be the case.
We are all making our predictions we just may have different methods.
let’s hope we have an agreed deal this quarter. I think a completed deal this year is unlikely but not really important. It’s an agreed deal that’s all important. We will be funded into next year with the rest of mellons 15 p warrants .
Hi connect. Request politely declined .Sorry but themes my take. When everyone was predicting an early conclusion I said q3 . As it turns out I was over optimistic . Only hindsight will determine if something is doom mongery.
Good luck
DDD and remember that is only taking into account the FS and PEAs, it excludes the rest of the district and exploration potential.
I have to admit I like your analysis but boy can you equally come across as a doom monger! You cleverly have a good position here, sometimes just take a step back, a polite request as I respect your views!
This is real back of the envelope stuff, but just to get an idea of worth.
A 50% discount to NPV (let's say $420m) is c, $210m i.e. about £168m. I'll up the issued to about 200m which will yield around 85p in per share value equivalent.
Knock about 65% off NPV and we are around the $150m mark or around £120m, c. 60p.
I just can't see it below 60p, however I look at it; bottom up based on average valuations or top down, discounting from NPV. For me it's now beginning to look more like the 60p - 85p negotiating band. Why on earth would you give $250m of NPV away given all the other positive factors in play?
I suppose it's more possible that an offer will come in at Denver vs. July\August, but I'm not counting my chickens.
I imagine Mellon converting the rest of his 15 p warrants oct /Nov which will see us into 2024 and bring Mellon close to the takeover limit. We know his modus operandi , 17% interest or 2.5 warrants for any further support.
So they have had lots of low ball offers that have been rejected. 5 maybe? Ndas gone back up from 7-10. 2 site visits this year mm. Seems to me that we may still be early doors in any sale.
We are not mine builders. Yet a couple of years ago we were going to be producing 150 k oz.
Sometimes best to read between the lines. Of course mc gives an upbeat interview, we are trying to sell ffs.however 20 months and £3 m in we are issuing new ndas and no firm offer. No proper answer to what if there is no acceptable offer? Mc correct it is going a bit slower than expected for sure , why?
Fingers crossed here but not too convinced personally.
Get the impression that we may see an agreemwnt signed and unveiled at the denver gold forum based on the interview - pointed to how he was meeting some CEOs of producers, sure they are passed the chatting stage
Yes, that interview has given me some confidence. Before listening, I was imagining that JM would take this private at a good price for him. He would be perfectly placed - he's hovering at just under 25%, Hannam have evidence of 3rd party valuations, but offers are non-binding so all JM would have to do is more or less match one of the tentative offers, and he vould take all of the value difference between npv and price paid - and he keeps any upside beyond proven reserves. However, MC states that JM is prepared to finance the company ( and all shareholders) through the sales process. I know that he'll want a fee/cut for doing it, but sounds as though we will all see some return here.
I'm still guessing 80p, but it's not the end of the world at 50p.
I have been frustrated by lack of feedback from MC, but this is a good one. I know that I'll get caned for saying so but I think that if MC delivers 60p plus, he'll have done a good job, given that he can only ever do what the major shareholders allows him to do. Luckily at the moment JM is telling him to sell the family silver to a jeweller rather than to a rag and bone man.
I have only been invested here for a couple of years, so my view of MC is limited to that period. I think he's a decent guy, who will deliver a reasonable sale.
Lets hope news filters out from the webinar to wider investor base but 40p seems pretty much nailed on and probably we have non binding offers already in excess. The webinar really hammered home that the discussion is what is discount on the $400m NPV when payback is 12 months from production. If they could get $150m cash today they should accept and you never know but Calibre or Equinox might take a poke at all paper share deal for more and i suspect most would be happy with that. Maybe an all paper deal at 30-50% of NPV might be the way to reach the 60p range. I sense all cash offers will be less but paper from a decent gold miner is a good way forward as the deal leaves a big bonus for the buyer once they go into production.
BLUE, what the hell is that? I regularly turn the air blue, but that’s about it! ;-)
That was a decent interview for a change; there is little real detail that can be included because of NDA’s.
I like the NPV start point at 400, that at least gives us some context, the discount? Well I’d see 50% max, so we are working between 200-300 realistically.
The problem for us is the SP isn’t really relevant as has been said but it’s hard when your holding keeps going from blue to red!
For me it’s hanging in until we get that first binding offer to establish the baseline for the others to work of…. Patience is never easy in this game, there’s some serious hardball in play!
Punter & Slim Jim will exercise his 15p warrants like last time so no new shares and no extra dilution
Possibly the best interview I’ve seen him do.
Looks like he’s ramming home that $400m NPV is the baseline and that the negotiation is around the discount to that valuation. I highly doubt a buyer would get away with such a massive discount to $100m, nor do I think Condor will get away with $300m. Perhaps $150m is modest and maybe $200m is achievable. In share terms maybe even my 60-65p is light.
There are too many people influenced by the current SP, treating it as something meaningful to an asset buyer. It isn’t. If f a predator tried to buy Condor in the market it it would end up paying over 100p in the blink of an eye. Which is why no one will try. You can’t make this share liquid that fast.
At some point someone will blink and place an acceptable bid in play. condor then make the most of it and invite BAFOs.
🤣
Well given that I have been in this share for so long I can't argue with that assessment - but that makes us both idiots, lol
Punter... you're an idiot.
All very well saying no rush nero but Big Jim getting his hands on a load more shares at a sharp discount means more dilution and less of a share of a possible sale for us other shareholders. Onion needs to get this this over the line sharpish.
For me anyone in the gold game knows conbore has been for sale a very long time and people are just realising 🤥
Sounds like big Jim getting ready to rump us again
If it’s that good it would of had offers or been sold
Nero unfortunately yr one of marks disciples who he uses to tell us what he wants us to believe
Very good interview, must watch for all shareholders. MC looks and sounds confident.
There's clearly a lot of emotion flying about on this board but Mark states the facts clearly in the interview. There is no reason to think the assets won't be sold, merely a question of negotiating discount to NPV. Time pressure not a factor as JM is committed to fund the company whilst the sales process is ongoing.
Ignore the share price, as there is no real price discovery here - price discovery will come once the first binding offer drops.
Until then, ignore the emotional rants and allow MC and JM the time required to negotiate the sale.
Thanks Frenchie.
In a strange way i feel a little more positive after listening to MC in that interview.
I might have to buy a few more.
Got to be honest i didn't feel that way after yesterday RNS.