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Dear Mr Slim
I am not sure I understand your message
S
More pain today it’s definitely happening soon jim said
5 diss taking offer made over 7 plus weeks ago but enquiries are pouring in but nothing since
Onion of on the USA road holiday come trip
Big won’t sell cheap lol he won’t be selling
Start plan b ffs 🧳🧳🧳🧳🧳🧳🧳🧳🧳🧳🤝🤝🤝🤝🤝
Simms, does seem gf old moneg for what it is. It is in the golden triangle and close to hemcos bonanza etc . Royal rd were committed to spend $7 m odd on exploration through their joint ventures. However that agreement has been terminated since along with I think the royalty.
For sure we should be looking at $100 m upwards. I am looking at the various costs that are attached to give some idea of value for us. It does seem to me that we will be liable to this withholding tax of 15% . What is mc new bonus ? What is the percentage commission, and finally, how many shares? I am going to round that up to 20% all together.
If we should get $150 m which to me is hopeful, subtract $30 m gives $120m . £95 m . Even with 200 m shares which there almost is now that gives an sp less than 50 p if all cash was returned and no further costs.
I would say its very useful firstly to demonstrate deals of a good size are happening in Nicaragua and to sell 50% of a very early stage mine with an MRE of onbly 92k ounzes gold for $25m show market is strongly investing. They are probably 5-6 years from production. Personally would like to see Condor sell 50% and then use some of that cash to fund us to production to enable the high returns to maximise our market cap. However by these numbers $100m+ seems absolute minimum as we are so much bigger and further down the road.
Didn't realise there is a mine in the capital city?!
Https://twitter.com/condorgoldplc/status/1696496944510574616?s=46&t=kd8cP9BJ1cmZhwzWkHkwbA
Where’s out resident bugle toting ‘pot of gold’ supporter ICB, conspicuous by his/her absence? I wonder if he’s involved in the deal and has had to lay low! ;-)
Onion will soon have us back in the teens. Stay tuned.....................
Ddd, this is a pretty relevant link .
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/950223/royal-road-minerals-closes-sale-of-its-50-interest-in-luna-roja-project-in-nicaragua-950223.html
Thoughts ?
Phones on the blink. Cnr we’re not precluded from involving more than 6 in a takeover but would be bound by takeover board and heavier cost,however, if a takeover transpired later th raw takeover board would be involved so why bother if it is a formality? That’s my point.
There is the possibility of a retained production royalty .
Hi e l, the reason is an asset sale avoids the takeover commission, avoiding much higher costs. Mc words. They could involve more than 6 in a takeover scenariIf it becomes an asset sale later it will still need to be subject to the takeover commission.
Nice to see gold moving up, perfect timing 😄
I would keep the champagne on ice for now but something is clearly going down so could be any day or week now for a binding offer to land. Once we get that then it is game on.
CGT is applied at the same rate as income tax in NIC, although non residents are charged 15%. I'm guessing that this concession had no offsetting costs associated with it, so a straight 15% of $600k. At the end of 2022 Condor was owed $43.5m. Assuming the new owners lend their new subsidiaries this money, to repay Condor, none of this element would be taxable. If say, the deal was for $143.5m then the other $100m may well be subject to a 15% tax less transaction costs. So, we could see $10 - $15m in NIC tax payable. There is no DTA between NIC and the UK which could also complicate matters.
There is also the possibility of an acquirer offering its own shares as part of the consideration. Then it gets really messy taxwise, valuations for a start.
It really is pointless getting too involved in deal structure possibilities without some further info.
Just going by what MC said Seingred. Webinar in early August I think.
I don't think the sale will be the actual assets (i.e. land buildings etc.). My guess is that the most likely outcome is that the NIC subsidiaries will be sold by Condor. Part of the sale proceeds will be repayment of each subsidiaries debt to Condor (i.e. cash repatriated), with the rest a direct payment to Condor for its shareholding in each subsidiary. That way the new owner gets to own the shares and clear any historical debt due to Condor. I can't really see them wanting all of Condor, unless for some reason they want a majority stake and to retain a listing. They could still buy all of Condor but what extra value are you getting if you don't want a UK listing? Cleaner buyout perhaps? Maybe; maybe not? It really is impossible to guess at motives and method without some idea of a likely buyer.
Transaction highlights
Condor S.A. has signed an irrevocable undertaking that, subject to the approval of the Nicaraguan Ministry of Mines and Energy ("MEM") by end-May 2020, it shall transfer (the "Transfer") to Nicoz S.A. the Potrerillos concession. Transfer documents have been filed with MEM.
Within five days of the Transfer being approved by MEM, taxes amounting of up to $90,000 shall become due to the fiscal authorities in Nicaragua, being 15% of the agreed consideration value of US$600,000 and which the Parties have agreed to bear equally. To this extent US$600,000 in cash has been paid by Nicoz S.A. to Condor S.A. and US$45,000 has been placed by each of the Parties into an escrow account with a third party agent, to be released and paid out upon approval of the Transfer. The net consideration to Condor S.A. from the sale of the Potrerillos Concession after deduction of taxes is approximately US$555,000.
Not sure what the scenario would be for a takeout.
Ddd , in reference to tax , check out the last asset sale Cnr carried out and royal rd 50% asset sale to Hemco, 15% tax to nica.
E l, mc has said it may eventually turn into takeover . Cnr can approach as many companies as it likes but would involve the takeover commission which incurs much higher costs. An asset sale won’t. Therefore if it reverts to a takeover it will then still be subject to takeover commission , therefore, what would be the point of avoiding the takeover commission if it is a takeover in all but name. That makes no sense. It is not an asset sale in name only sorry. It may turn into full takeover. Personally the sooner it is confirmed the better. the market and investors like transparency.
We don't actually know how it's going to manifest itself. All my SP numbers are equivalent value terms, as they always have been. I don't particularly believe it will end up either as an Nic asset sale (the assets are the subsidiaries), or as a full takeout.
I've no better idea than anyone else on how many NDAs are signed, so I'll just believe what the news releases tell me, via X or via RNS.
I went through loads of scenarios months ago but ended up deciding it was pointless in spending further effort without some idea of the deal structure. What I do know is that there is a massive loan from the parent company to the NIC subsidiaries which will need repaying before worrying about tax.
It’s nailed on! Sunjammer, the talking bears and chat LGBTQ told me.
Since we are having wild guesses I’d say 42p has to be the answer right? and an RNS on Monday
It is an asset sale in name only. MC alluded to this in a recent webinar. Rules and regulations apparently restrict the number of parties one can approach for a full company sale. It seems no such restrictions apply for an "asset sale". MC said the market would be updated if the asset sale scenario changed to a company sale, although my guess is that all of the information will come out in a single RNS. The big one!
Ddd, it is an asset sale currently. The aquiring company will make an offer for the assets. They are not buying our shares! What is the offer price? Then Cnr return cash to us minus all allied costs including mc new bonus . How many shares will there be at that point?
Imv, the sooner there are less than 6 ndas the better and hopefully a full takeover as the plan. Then it is easier to get a rough valuation. Currently hard to see wood for trees which imv is holding the sp back.
Forget the sp, what is the likely bid?? If you see $150 m or$200 m ?? Again how many shares ? Tax? Mc bonus other expenses ?
Nero, I think you are correct, this will be sold for whatever can be had. Mellon has lowered his get out considerably with 15 p giveaway and mc has a new bonus that doesn’t involve£1 anymore. If an offer equating to 40 p is the best offer that will be put forward for vote. Mellon will have about a quarter of the votes in his hands .
Calibre took just over 3 months from deal announcement til completion so should expect similar. So may just about complete this yr if a binder is nailed in the next month.
Perhaps he means a deal agreed this year? If it completes as an asset sale obviously longer and more question marks over the ammount returned.
I don't think there will be a lot of wriggle room on price; perhaps other aspects but not so much on price. In other words if bids come in around 45p I doubt CNR will be able to talk it up to 60p; 48p or 50p, perhaps. Whoever gets the first bid in will likely set the ballpark for others. If they come in at 45p or 50p, I think we can forge 70p or 80p.
On the other hand I doubt Condor would take 40p very seriously given what they have invested, both in time and money. Indeed, in their shoes, I would regard 40p submissions as time wasters. I keep coming back to around 60p - 65p. I've rationalised it in terms of resource values and it pretty much sits in the middle of the wildly pessimistic (40p and below) and wildly optimistic (80p and above), though neither scenarios are impossible. Higher prices are likely with companies who are very keen on replenishing reserves, and there are more than a few these days.
Condors current market cap is totally meaningless when you can shift it by millions through the purchase or sale of a couple of hundred thousand pounds worth of buys or sells. Anyone bidding will recognise that their bid will need to be justified on the basis of a return on investment, not on whether they can buy close to current market value (which will be impossible once word of bids gets out).
I doubt we will get valuations in the 80p - 100p range but I can't totally rule it out. I've no idea what the individual circumstances of bidders are. They may have agendas and future pricing scenarios that make that range viable.
IMO I can't see a "no deal" scenario arising. We have had (at least) three site visits with each site visit team signing off on the assets and recommending to proceed. MC has a weekly call with Hannam & Partners after which he briefs the other directors, so is pretty much running the sales process as much as H&P.
No deal IMO means Condor MUST get financing quick sharp for the mine build or more than likely will lose the permits as the gov want the mine built asap, so there will be a deal as there are serious parties involved in the process that have done their DD. I don't believe either JM or MC have the stomach to go for mine build, I think JM especially wants to cash out here so they will take the best deal they can get. I expect the amount of time being taken is due to ongoing negotiations between MC/H&P and the various interest parties, but that's just a guess on my part.
I won't make a prediction re price as I don't believe the SP has ever really reflected the value here, and the assets will sell for the current fair market price - and we will find out what that is once the sales process concludes in due course.
If MC is to be believed, he has been very confident that the sales process would be concluded this year (which makes me think that is the H&P timeline), so we should be seeing binding offers appearing in the next few months. I can only hope that this Christmas will finally be a happy one for Condorians, we shall see!