NDA was with B2Gold. We obviously don't know what was discussed, but B2 have sold their Nic mines to Calibre. Therefore surely any discussions regarding a toll agreement or buying B2's equipment are now over. So MC's avoidence of the subject is not really a bad sign - we must already assume that there's nothing further to talk about. Outside chance that B2 sold their poor-performing mines to bring in a brand-new, high-grade, exploration opportunity, so theoretically takeover discussions could be ongoing, but can't see what else we'd have to talk to them about. Not sure if MC's avoidence of the subject is particularly rude either. Frankly, I think MC made a mistake mentioning it in the first place, and may regret doing so - it was an off-the-cuff comment, never mentioned in an RNS. These things probably go on all the time, but there's not much to say unless something is actually agreed. No mention of discussions with Calibre, so best to assume nothing's happening, until it's official. As far as anyone knows, we're still working towards full mine finance and construction. Any upside beyond that should be considered to be a nice suprise.
Looks like Calibre has the main listing on TSX (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CXB:CN), which is still suspended and also an OTC listing (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CXBMF:US). I don't know much about OTC markets, except that they are trades done directly between the seller and the buyer, without an exchange to mediate. I imagine that would imply sporadic liquidity and more volatile prices than you would see on an exchange.
Where are you looking? I thought they were suspended at 58 cents until October. If they are trading again, I can only assume that the market, rightly or wrongly, believes that the dilution isn't worth the assets they acquired.
I think this level is simply seen by the market as a good risk-reward level. The price has been 17-19p for months, indicating that buying and selling pressure is roughly equally matched. Every time it looks like the price could fall to new lows, a few buys is sufficient to pick it back up again. So I agree, this seem like a good point at which to enter or top-up, despite the (justifiable) frustrations of LTHs.
nero has posted a chart indicating (and I'll try to choose my words carefully here, to avoid unnecessary controversy) some correlation between the gold price and that of Condor. IIRC, the chart he posted did quite clearly show that the correlation was broken when the IIs started selling, bringing us down to these levels, from mid-30s or whatever it was. So, yes I would agree that we really ought to have a leg up at some point due to the gold price rise up to this point, never mind if it goes higher, as it probably will if/when the Fed start cutting rates.
That said, it may tale a catalyst of some sort to kick-start that rise. Though buys and sells are balancing out at the moment, we are at historically low levels, indicating that the market has rather lost interest in our story. A gold price rise may not be, indeed, has not been, sufficient on it's own. A toll mining deal, or any other positive announcement however, may see an outsize reaction as the market not only digests the company news, but also includes a re-rate due to the gold price at the same time. BWTFDIK! DYOR and all that.
The RNS states: "The main use of the placement proceeds is to meet the terms of the Permit, including the purchase of land for the mine site infrastructure, technical engineering and other studies required prior to construction."
That sounds a lot like the content of a BFS to me. Once those studies are done, then compiling the BFS may be quite straight-forward, and may not require much in the way of further funding.
Yes, good news. Not massive, but it's something to lift the mood.
Not sure what you mean about the toll agreement MB? We must assume that any such discussions with B2 have now come to a dead-end, as they've sold the mines! It's very possible that MC and Calibre are now discussing such a possibility, however no such discussions have been confirmed, and if they are taking place, they would (presumably) be at an early stage. It would be great if we were able to come to some collaborative arrangement with Calibre at some point, but nothing is guaranteed and, as always, it will take time.
I wonder if the NDA with B2 is over yet? I not, I wonder what else there is to talk about. If so, I wonder whether we'll ever learn what was discussed. Probably not I guess, if it didn't come to anything. I'm still curious though.
Just about everyone else manages to have something constructive to say, positive or negative or somewhere in between. Or says nothing, which is fine too. And we're all looking at the same facts at the end of the day. No-one's asking for unbridled joy and optimism, but something with a bit more depth than your usual posts would be most welcome.
Yes, I agree. Pricing the options at >30p along with an accompanying statement that the management believes that the SP is abnormally and unfairly low due to large II disposals that had nothing to do with the company, and therefore was pricing the options accordingly, would have turned a(nother) PR fail into a win.
Possibly there are some restrictions on what the company can and can't say regarding the SP, but I'm sure something could have been worked out, if there was the will to do so. Despite the naysayers, MC is still much better thought of than many in his position across AIM. Imperative that he doesn't waste that goodwill, particularly in the absence of concrete positive news.
I did wonder whether MC et al would forego options this year, after there was no mention of options at the AGM. I don't begrudge MC and other employees a financial incentive, but 22p is not exactly challenging is it.
My running total of the fully diluted number of shares, if all options and warrants were to be exercised, is now up to nearly 120M, and that's without BFS or construction financing finalized yet.
I'm still bullish, but the financial situation is starting to worry me. Any comments?
It's good publicity I guess, but really just a summary of the last few RNSs, together with a touch of speculation regarding Calibre, which any of us can do all day long. I don't think they're any better informed than anyone on this board TBH.
Regarding the target price, it's based on La India NAV, so reserves only. No accounting for district potential on the one hand, nor jurisdictional risk on the other. Broker target prices are notoriously garbage, at least in terms of any kind of prediction about the future SP. Note the three-year recomendations chart - 130p to 150p for the last 3 years. Don't think it means much either way TBH.
It's understandable to feel down, given all that LTHs have been through the last few years, however the past is the past and we should be looking to the future now. The shares have rarely been cheaper and production has never been closer than it is right now. Once production has commenced, we'll be making more profit a year than our current MCap. I don't need to be smoking anything to see that.
That's not to say there aren't, challenges, let us call them, but that's why we're down at this price in the first place. How much worse can it get? The effects of a gold bear market, jurisdictional risk, folding IIs, construction finance worries - they're all in the price already.
I don't have a crystal ball, but this is a pretty good risk-reward if you ask me. What makes you suspect we'll be "stiffed" as you put it? If it's just a feeling, then I'd have to argue that your pessimism could be as misplaced as you imply others optimism is.
Website updated: http://www.condorgold.com/investors/share-info
Confirmation then that RB has also chipped in for another 1.2M shares or so. Very suprised the RNS didn't mention this - bit of a PR fail TBF.
Nicaragua Milling not on there yet, presumably because their shares are conditional on receipt of the funds towards the end of this month.
Let it go guys. Water under the bridge.
Dilution is a pain, but that's life. Bad luck that both City Financial and IFC had to sell up at the same time. We'd likely have been raising in the 30 if they had held. Still, onwards and upwards. Some cash-flow would be wonderful. Fingers crossed we hear something along those lines soon.
Inspired by RothRock, so would be particularly interested in your view RR.
Ross Beaty holds a chunk of Condor. Lukas Lundin holds a chunk of Calibre. They both have impressive resumes and are clearly best mates.
See here: https://stratum-international.com/interviews-with-mining-greats-ross-beaty/
and here: https://www.mining.com/web/lukas-on-lundin/
and here: http://www.canadianminingjournal.com/news/philanthropy-ross-beaty-lukas-lundin-give-b-c-museum-of-mining-3-72-million/
Ross Beaty is building a gold company (Equinox Gold) out of aquisitions and mergers. So is Calibre. Will they cooperate or compete? Either could be good for us. Let's assume they cooperate.
Condor gets bought or is merged with Calibre. Calibre gets bought or is merged with Equinox Gold.
Upside for us? I wouldn't want to speculate as I'd get labelled a shamless ramper! Suffice to say, I'd probably stick with it until RB sold up.
Thoughts, opinions, criticisms?
Calibre clearly thought the deal was worth making, and I don't doubt their judgement, however I think you need to compare apples-to-apples before judging CNR too harshly in comparison.
For one thing, any prior Calibre shareholders have been massively diluted. I think their issued shares is now 5 times what it was? For another, a $/oz valuation, or a oz/annum production absolutely has to be qualified with the AISC. 120k oz per annum at $700/oz AISC makes more money than 200k oz per annum at $1000/oz AISC, assuming a $1400/oz gold price.
B2 haven't shown much interest in Nicaragua for a while. High AISC, labour issues and depeleting mines, plus the political challenges. Not sure Mali is a better jurisdiction, but at least they're maing money there. Not suprised they wanted out of Nic. There is just the very faintest chance that they got rid of their old, high AISC mines to swap in a brand-new , low-AISC exploration outfit, but that's a very long shot.
I concur that I hope B2 haven't been stringing us along. MC will be spitting feathers if that's the case. JM and RB won't be thrilled either. Hopefully we will hear something, soon, about what our future may entail. I think we're all getting the feeling that we're getting to the sharp end of this now, but with so much fog still swirling, it's understandable that nerves are fraying.
I was thinking the same when I saw that, but then they're getting all the mine equipment chucked in as well, and then the AISC is significantly higher than ours, so overall I'm not sure you can read too much into that either way.