Member Info for ElectricLion

Fair enough. But in that case, there's no reason why anyone should put more faith in your numbers than their own, or anyone else's. You present them as facts, but in reality they are closer to opinions.

Any 3rd-party source for any of your numbers, or are they all your own work?

Quit the ORR ramping please.

Subtle.

Trump can't back out without looking like a fool, but continuing just makes it worse. What an idiot. :-(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cedp3lee059o

Fantasy - you could have sold for 2p a couple months ago...

GQ is a bot, or may as well be. Just regurgitating AI nonsense. Whether ramping or deramping, best ignored either way.

I know what Xhita means. There is a particular kind of PI character that I observe across LSE boards - constantly moaning and depressed, sometimes to the point of out-right paranoia and conspiracy theories, but seemingly with no interest at all in actually selling up and moving on to something they perceive as better. Some basic psychological bias/flaw at work no doubt.

That said, I don't think I'd characterise it as a British problem! That is probably wide of the mark, and verging on xenophobic. Somehow I don't think that basic human psychology varies widely between countries!

Lol pedro

- It's not new news, but I'm a bit suprised/disappointed that we're only targetting 145k ozs at La India, with the first year or two significantly below that. I guess the aim was to minimise CapEx, in-line with what was anticipated from Runruno's last gasps, but still, La India could/should be a 200k oz operation all day long. The idea of a separate plant for La Grecia is intriguing, but will take some time to come to fruition.

- Delighted to hear the commitment to a second jurisdiction/mine. This is the trigger I was waiting for before comitting to top-ups over the next few months. While it would be nice to hear concrete specifics, I think the commitment shown by DB is enough for me to pull the trigger. Hopefully the deal won't disappoint! I still worry about affordability, but we'll get the best available for the price we can afford.

- Plans for main market listing and dividends are very encouraging as well.

- DB seemed diplomatic on AISC. I trust MTL's internal figures over a random analyst.

If the market can get it wrong once, then it can get it wrong again, on the upside, or the downside, no matter what your numbers say. AIM stocks tend to be driven much more by the greed and fear of the market than what any calculator may say, for better or worse. Personally, I'm inclined to say we're due a bounce. Where that takes us is anybody's guess, but 1.4p or above is a distinct possibility. And then maybe down again, up again, etc. A lot can happen before the end of the year, just as a lot has already happened since the start of the year.

Once we're in production, it gets a lot easier - hard numbers, established valuation models, etc. Until then, while one can certainly run all sorts of numbers, I'm just not sure they count for much while the SP is, quite clearly, quite so volatile and emotion-driven. Time will tell.

How do you explain the SP at 2p a couple of months ago Target? Surely that shows that there are other factors that you may not be considering...

That's up to you Target, but the DFS is now out-dated, simple as that. Thus, using it verbatim, without taking account of recent developments could lead to just as many inaccuracies as assuming things which are not yet known. The truth is somewhere in-between no doubt. It'll all come out in the wash, but I'm just pointing out that your methodology, while legitimate, is extremely conservative, that's all.

Target6p those are some very conservative calculations for your valuation today of 0.79p. At today's price of 1.13p, the market agrees (although the market is frequently wrong, in both directions, so this may not mean much!)

My feedback:

- we are targetting 160k oz per annum, rising to 200k oz in time

- we own 86% of TK

Those are facts, as they stand today.

In addition, in my estimation:

- gold price will probably be higher

- we are likely to find more gold, extending mine life

- CapEx overrun is possible, not not very likely IMO, given fixed-price contracts

So while some of your conservative numbers are possible, they are unlikely to all be true at the same time.

Takeaway - your 0.79p valuation today is very, very conservative, bordering on bearish. I don't think I would be wanting to hold KEFI shares if my own valuation model suggested fair value below today's price. On the flip side, your 4.74p valuation in production seem fair enough. Some would say higher, but we'll have to wait and see. I guess it's a process over the next 18 months or so, for the company to make good progress and reduce the risks you've accounted for in your model.

I wish I could buy more, but I'm fully comitted at present. As such it does sting a bit to see the SP come down this far from the 2p or so it was sitting at just a couple of months ago. Still, it's the future that counts, and while the short-term is, as usual, anyone's guess, the long-term looks bright. I will continue to add, when I can afford to.

As a scientist, I would say that you need to consider all variables before jumping to conclusions. For example, what was the gold price when the SP was 0.59p, vs $4540/oz today? Also, what has inflation done in the meantime, etc?

Ugh.

And yet, the question was a perfectly reasonable one regarding drill results, not DB. You're the one who derailed it. Either contribute constructively or keep schtum.

MTL LTHs being as charming as ever I see. Shame. If they could just ditch the attitude, we could have much more productive conversations, benefiting all.

In retrospect, it seems clear that Equinox were making a play for Calibre, just as Condor were advertising their wares. There was probably a lot of NDAs flying around at the time, preventing any party from being fully transparent about their position. I think it's also fair to say that Condor was pretty unlucky. Going back further, B2Gold (the original owners of the mines that became Calibre's, and then Equinox's) seemed willing to do a toll-mining deal, and then it was vetoed by head office at the last minutes on the basis that B2 were selling their Nic assets to Calibre. What might have been...

I have thought for many years that the Nic assets were ripe to be consolidated by a single company. Condor was too small, but perhaps B2Gold, Calibre, or Equinox could have snapped up the lot and gained synergies in the process. The fact that no-one has done so perhaps speaks to the jurisdictional risk present in having a large, consolidated Nic entity. While the Nic assets are profitable for those who hold them, it seems that, historically at least, owners are keen to off-load them onto someone else, as soon as less risky jurisdictional opportunities become available. I haven't kept up with Equinox's M&A plans, but MTL would presumably be a good fit for them, assuming they are still committed to Nic.