Member Info for ElectricLion

You plonker Rodney. You've been saying that since the 0.5p days. Hasn't happened yet.

How'd you get all that Xhita? Private emails with HAA/KEFI? No problem if so, but as I'm sure you're aware, everyone's itching for something, anything, beyond just words at this point, so I hope this will be shared with all shareholder shortly. :-)

Dictumdedicto - small beer in the grand scheme of things. I'm sure one can dig up a similer level of dirt, or worse, on just about any political figure.

Target - regarding possible delays - while anything is possible - Lycopodium are very experienced at this sort of thing, and there's nothing currently to suggest this project will be anything they haven't dealt with before. I am cautiously optimistic that they'll actually finish early, and we'll see first gold late 2027. We'll just have to wait and see, but as construction milestones start to get ticked off, the risk becomes progressively less, and the market should begin to gain confidence in the story.

Bluntly, whatever your political views, surely there is more risk in the prospect of an inexperienced new force in politics gaining substantial control over the country's finances, than either one of the two major parties that have historically ruled the roost, making the same old mess of it that they always have.

Individual scandels, whether sexual, financial or otherwise are really neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things, but large-scale fundamental political changes (which is what a lot of people say they want), could backfire badly. Thus, it's not the next couple of years that concern me, but what comes after that...

First production is due early 2028, not 2029. Finance is raised, Lycopodium are the builders. The country's leaders are on-board, indeed pushing HAA to go faster. Don't appear to be any issues with the local population or artisanal miners. Nothing is ever 100% guaranteed, but it would take an all-out war (not just a skirmish hundreds of miles away) to derail it in my view. Thus, 95%+ de-risked and production in 2028 highly likely. The concerns are now less to do with the TK project and more to do with the time to production being beyond the timeframe of many PIs, and the lingering spectre of future dilution.

Bit suprising you aren't rich by now Seingred. You freely admit that you're not, and yet you (claim to) have had an endless unbroken stream of winners for years and years. Doesn't add up.

Agreed Xhita. Nice to have a new, sensible, poster on board! 86% TK ownership is the silver lining to the 28% dilution for the raise! Also, many folks were previously complaining that the CR stream seemed expensive, so got to factor that in too. End of the day, no-one hands over 10s or 100s of millions without getting something in return, so it is what it is.

Do I wish I'd sold at 2p (and then bought back lower)? Of course. But i have a substantial holding, and that would have been harder than it sounds, even if I had made the decision to try.

From here, while many (most?) PIs won't have the patience to stay the course, I think double in a year, and double again the following year is very realistic, and is a heck of a good return in the real world. PIs dreaming of over-night 10-baggers tend to gamble more than they can afford to lose on fly-by-night operations, like WSBN for example, rather than facing facts that chasing such extreme returns, usually requires tolerating extreme levels of risk. I'm not saying that KEFI is not risky, far from it, but it's an investment from this point, not a gamble.

Tikitaki - as the OP said, there has been plenty of optimism about from the usual suspects. But this thread is about risks. A balance is needed, in order to make wise choices.

I doubt the market would give a 7+ multiple to a miner with a single mine in a single jurisdiction, no matter the mine life. Too risky for high multiples. That's why a second (and ideally a third) mine/jurisdiction is important.

Other investment alternatives are well-respected funds. Vanguard Lifestrategy 100% Equity, for instance, is up 60% over 3 years, and is basically the least risky way to invest in the stock market. The bulk of my pension is in such funds. Horses for courses.

Until La India is operational, there is also execution risk on the build. I was involved with Horizonte Minerals (HZM) a while back, fortunately sold out (ironically for *more* risky alternatives, or so I thought at the time) before the disaster there. Basically their mine build was already expensive, but turned out half-way through, they had massively under-estimated and needed another 3 or 4 hundred million to finish it. SP collapsed by 90% in the day that news was released. A couple of months later, having been unable to raise the extra funds, the company went bust.

La India is a much cheaper build to begin with and the risk drops every day, as construction advances, but with Runruno running dry, any delay or over-spend with La India construction could be painful.

Sarcasm I think Surrey. Candy's notoriously a property man. That's where his wealth derives from, and resides as far as I know. I'm sure that his MTL holding is a tiny fraction of his overall wealth.

Re. Nicaragua. Conversly, I've been thinking for a long time that Nic's real future lies in the next generation having a more enlightened view of things. Some disruption is to be expected, but providing the transition is peaceful, I am hopeful that a younger, more optimistic, more collabarative mindset may come to the fore, rather than the old warhorses of the cold war, and it's various influences. One can dream.

I'm inclined to agree that expectations for the Philippines are now at rock bottom. However, that being the case, now means that any improvement in the outlook there could suprise to the upside. It's not over until it's over. If it is over, then I'd welcome suggestions of where the next jurisdictional opportunity may be. Just as the Nic opportunity came out of the blue for MTL holders, another pivot could be equally suprising, and profitable, one hopes. Expect the unexpected!

Indeed Surrey. I'm a fan of La India, have been for a long time. Not such a big fan of Condor, or Metals, so far, but the gold isn't going anywhere. It's unfortunate that the Philippines story has collapsed, but that's not DB's fault, even if he did lead investers on somewhat. Waiting with baited breath to hear where the Runruno plant is headed. That news will determine my long-term future in this share. As great as La India is, it's not really sufficient for a producer aspiring to be mid-tier. Some jurisdiction and mine diversification could change the game, with a corresponding boost to SP.

I am a millionaire Lee. And I plan to stay that way. Your attitude sucks. Dunning-Kruger comes to mind. (Google it.)

To that I would add Major - that betting everything you have on one horse is not a strategy for long-term survival. You may get lucky in one race, and then lose it all in the next.

It's a little depressing how few seems to take the subject of investing seriously, and actually try and understand how to do it properly, to evaluate probablities of success, not just on one trade, but on the long-term strategy, and avoid some of the more obvious risks. And how few can separate the process from the results. A few folk on here think they're geniuses because they gambled the lot, and got lucky, but that's not a recipe for consistent, reproducible success. Get some education. Read a book! Fooled by Randomness is a good one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness

I have not traded MTL. I cannot speak for others. I will not engage with you further Lee. You are dishonest yourself - brooking no criticism against MTL whatsoever, no matter whether justified or not, lest it adversly affect your over-sized holding. That, or you really can't see your own bias. To call out others for trading, and being dishonest about it, from such a fragile glasshouse, and when moreover, you have zero evidence, is really beyond the pale.

"dishonest"??? Lee, that's too much. You should apologise. I dare say you won't, but you are in the wrong there. Just because you can't see it doesn't make it any better.

Why bother yourself pedro? It's a chat board, for chatting. Don't like it, don't read.

Gambling is gambling Weasel, whether you win or not. Be careful. Many on this board are not, and have been lucky. Not everyone who gambles is lucky.

Dilution for SA possible, at some point. But no real indication it's necessary any time soon, and when all's said and done, we are only exposed to 13% of the costs, so should be manageable without too much drama.