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It's hard to see how this isn't just free money at this point. I know the history, and I've even been here for some of it, so I understand the reservations, but even the most vociferous of HAA's detracters must now begin to admit that TK is happening, which opens the door to a whole new phase of Kefi's existance.
In practical terms, a doubling of the SP, probably before Christmas, seems more likely than not, just for starters. I would never suggest that anyone throws caution to the winds - sensible risk mitigation is a must for long-term survival in this game, which for me mostly means appropriate position sizing, but that said, it's hard not to throw everything I've got at this right now, given that a £1 invested now is odds-on to be £2 and hopefully more any day now.
Can't speal for cp, but precisely none of the post makes sense to me. I've outlined in the past why I don't think Calibre are interested in us. I think they prefer safer jurisdictions to be honest, and can't blame them for that. Next, I'm pretty sure they won't have committed to the recent M&A if it somehow depended on buying CNR! They'll have figured out the finance for that before signing on the bottom line.
Regarding the price, well do we think JM will accept 20p a share? If not, what would be the point of submitting that offer in the first place? It would waste eveybody's time. Do we think that that of the 5 non-binding offers received so far, that have all been rejected, or at least put on hold, for being too low, that none of them are above 20p?
Time will tell, and for that matter a broken clock is right twice a day, but based on the information we know now, I don't see it, any of it.
"You're all in danger of rolling over and accepting sub-par management way too readily"
Perhaps, but even if that was the case, but, as I've tried to point out before... what do you actually suggest we do about it?
You can either a.) sell your shares, or b.) embark on a lengthy and difficult process to change the management or it's strategies, which is highly likely doomed to failure, as JM owns such a large percentage (and also bankrolls the company, so pi**ing him off could have very significant ramifications all on it's own).
Which of those options are you proposing? Or is there a 3rd way I've not considered? Genuinely interested in any constructive response. (But every time I've poseed this question in the past, all that follows is tumbleweed, followed by the same whinging a few days later.)
I don't want to be a downer, especially not today, but if you're talking about being logical, well there's *two* logical possibilities. One is that today's share price is not an accurate representation of true value. The other, less palatable, but equally logical, explanation is that it was the £1.40 price that was not an accurate representation of fair value...
Never mind PREM, checkout HZM! A bullet dodged for me - I am a former holder there. Big cost overruns and no clear indication of how it will be financed. 50% down today on further bad news, to add to a huge drop a couple of months ago.
It is my sincere hope that one of the reasons for the seemingly interminable duration of the finance arrangements here is to do everything humanly possible to avoid the same happening to us half-way through construction.
Your average is a relic of the past. You can only control the here and now. JM won't care about his average, he just wants to be able to buy shares for less than he will be able to sell them for.
"Buy when there's blood in the streets... even if some of the blood is your own."
(Not financial advice!)
I have seen commentary (can't find it at the moment, soz) that the Lassonde Curve model is in danger of being broken, as it's so difficult to raise capital at the moment. Something to consider. My comment would be that, compared to most juniors, GGP already has the luxury of a multi-hundred-million MCap already, so can raise a hundred million or two out of equity if it has to, unlike most.
I haven't run the numbers regarding takeover percentages, but I don't think JM has any interest in taking it private. What would he do with it then? He's an investor, more interested in lab-grown meat and immortality than building and then running a gold mine in a "challenging" jurisdiction. He wants shot of it, he just wants a decent price that's all. Yes, the longer it goes on, the more money it will take in running costs. How that translates into dilution is debatable, but it will come off the bottom line somewhere. It is what it is. As 888 says, CNR probably wouldn't have made it this far without him, so, in this narrow context, credit where credit is due. We don't have to agree with him on anything, or like him as a person, but CNR would probably be in a tight spot without him, so bear that in mind before sticking the knife in too deeply...
Whatever your opinion of JM, I think cegamer's comment from a couple of days ago is spot on:
"Either way - this whole thing is being driven by JM, not Mark, and you're in the backseat. If you don't like it, suggest you tuck and roll because this looks like it's easily going to drift into next year."
So get used to it, or sell up, 'cos JM's now running the show, whether you like it or not.
Thing is, we have no idea what the current bids are, or what JM's "fair price" target is, or how long he will wait to get it. So *all* attempts at valuations are really completely stabs in the dark. Personally, I think JM's target is a lot closer to $400m than some think. Doesn't mean he'll get it, but if you take that as an "anchor" price, then the offers we've had so far could be actually pretty decent in the grand scheme of things, at least, compared with most people's expectations at this point.
In addition, I think we've got used to timescales being stretched at this point, so it won't shock most if this does take a few more months. I'm sure JM will have *some* deadline in mind though, even if he hasn't told anyone else at all. The 1-year anniversary of the start of the sale process or the end of the calendar year are pretty arbitrary (and therefore meaningless) dates that we may attach some significance to, but JM is unlikely to.
The one thing I hope we can say with some confidence is that the company should be sold at some point, given there are a number of offers on the table already, and that whatever price they may be, they must surely be some way higher than the current market price. And so therefore, no matter how frustrated and disillusioned we may be, CNR must surely be a buy at this price. Could double, treble or more at a moment's notice. Finger's crossed.
From the interims:
"KME has lodged a formal protest with the Ethiopian Minister of Mines as a precursor to commencing administrative proceedings in respect of its long-standing proximal Exploration Licenses ("ELs") surrounding the Tulu Kapi Mining Licence area, in order to continue exploration programmes and community development which have always complemented Tulu Kapi. During an overhaul of the title-regulatory system in 2022, these ELs were over-pegged by a Hong Kong shell company owned by a British Virgin Islands shell company. We are confident that this situation can be resolved satisfactorily. KME has also lodged applications for additional exploration licences elsewhere in Ethiopia."
It's been mentioned in RNSs, yes. It's not new. Good chance of it being resolved in Kefi's favour IMO. No point having some shell investment company sitting on it forever.
I doubt there's any specific issue, and my personal judgement is that the risk of the project not going ahead is exceedingly slim. Rather, it's just a very large and complicated deal with a helleva lot of lawyers, negotiation, rules and paperwork, that all have to be worked through in excrutiating detail. It'll get done, but no-one can say exactly when.
I expect that MC and JM are letting Hannam run the show, so it'll be their rules, probably. For example, I think it was said somewhere that not stipulating a deadline was Hannam's advice. Who really knows though. It seems that we will hear nothing until the whole thing is done and dusted.
The way I see it, they are unlikely to actually *know* anything more than we do - would most likely be insider trading if they did (which must happen occasionally, but probably far more risk than it's actually worth in general).
Given that they do this for a living, they may have better instincts and/or more thorough research than most PIs, but even then - there's enough evidence of the big boys getting it badly wrong over the last 20 years that we can hardly assume that they have some unique insight.
It's a fact that this company doesn't make any money yet, and so therefore predicting a placing at some point in the future doesn't make you Nostradamus. But the company has indicated that won't be necessary until after TK sign-off. Up to you if you believe them or not, and even if you do, how soon after it'll come.
My take is that, as Rob says, they have been reducing for some time, and that has suppressed the SP. However, they are now out completly, and so that supressing effect is no longer present. There's needs to be a catalyst for the SP to take off of course, but when that catalyst appears, I'd expect a strong positive SP reaction, now that that headwind has been removed.
If you're out because you're fearful of a placing, and then the SP doubles on TK sign-off regardless, then your abundance of caution will have proven to be misjudged. (And let's be honest with ourselves, if any of us were actually risk-averse, we wouldn't be here in the first place!)
Personally, I'm holding everything I have and would buy more if I could. DYOR.
For once, I agree with you Seingred! I don't see Calibre as a serious contender here. They've consistently shown no interest in us at all as far as I can see.
I would say though that the argument that they got two mines for $100m, so therefore we would be too pricey for them doesn't stack up for me - just because you got one stonking deal (on say, burgers at the supermarket one week), doesn't mean that deal will be available every week at every supermarket - sometimes you have to pay a fair price for your burgers!
As I understand it, a toll deal with B2 was all done and dusted at a local level, but when it was escalated to the C-level, they turned it down on the basis they'd decided to sell the mines instead. It does make you wonder what might have been - if B2 had kept the mines and we'd had an equitable toll deal all those years ago. Cest la vie.
Again, as I understand it, Calibre wanted more than their fair share in a toll deal which was why it didn't happen. Perfectly within their rights to do so of course.
Now, the Chinese seem to be all over Nic right now, and seem to be far more likely candidates to me. Geopolitical synergies abound.
I can't see the current gold price gyrations making much difference to us or the buyers - you can't hit pause and renegotiate a major deal every 5 minutes just because the gold price has gone up or down a few bucks. Longer term projections are surely more relevant. Up is still better than down though!
As to why it's taking a while, or what price will ultimately be achieved, none of us can say. Speculation is free of course, but I'm not sure it's that helpful. We just don't know, and that's just how it is.
"who says a word that does not praise the Supreme Leader MC is immediately attacked by the cheerleaders"
Drop this attitude problem and then maybe it would be possible to have a real conversation. Or you could join SS and Punter, throwing around impotent insults and other childish nonsense instead of debating it properly. If that's all you actually want to do, then fine, drop the pretence fully, bark at the moon with the other mad dogs, and those of us that wish can filter you so we don't have to listen.
If you want a real discussion, then start one. Before you suggest any course of action though, the first thing to bear in mind is the stark truth that JM and MC own 25.4% of the company between them. That makes defying them a challenge in practice. I've yet to hear a more practical solution than my (genuine and well-intentioned) suggestion of simply selling up if you don't like the situation.
Impossible to say really, although not many options have been exercised full-stop, and none that I can recall above the prevailing SP, so it is a bit unusual just in that regard. I wonder why they didn't buy in the market? The MMs could have found 70k shares down the back of the sofa. Maybe they weren't allowed to buy in the market but are allowed to exercise options? Who knows. I also wonder if it will be followed by others...
I agree that a 10-bagger by Christmas is shameless ramping, that said, the only reason the SP didn't get anywhere near 1p was because RAB sold into the rise, which they can no longer do.
If anyone's addressing me, and I don't respond, it may be because I've filtered you. Just FYI. Of course you may not be - I can't tell! lol