focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Simms, there is no chance of completion this year imv. Calibre deal with b2 took over 3 months from announcing. And b 2 were holders in calibre at the time. The next likely event imv will be further funding , hopefully Mellon converting more 15 p warrants. The question now ddd is will it complete by next April.
After almost a year we have 3 site visits and no binding offer. Not overly promising if you are on the sidelines. I imagine a Chinese offer being the most likely and most desired by Ortega . What if there is only 1 offer. What actually is the alternative ?
Simms45 I agree with you but have reservations about the land, To the best of my understanding, the land was bought from its owners, the government has no connection or influence to the process, It would be great to see officeal extension of la India concession beyond Nov' 26, unfortunately on the day it expires, licenses won't matter any more and Condor will left only with the value of the land. The hourglass is running out and we will have to see movements in the next few days,
in the past week the Chinese announced 4 b$ Investments in Nicaragua
Condor project is a pennies and ready to go, let's hope the solution will come from there.
Gla
What we need to boost our morale is some more of those briefcase and handshake emojis cos surely they mean a deal is in the offing?!!
My gut feeling there’s nothing in concrete this side of Christmas then it will end up in jim control for peanut’s with mc on a massive salary as a thankyou
Interesting point on the la lndia concession. my feeling is that since only last year Condor was given a huge new swathe of licenses around the la india concession and that given Condor own all the land and studies it should be a formality to renew. We spent over $5m on land recently. There is little point from the Nic perspective to not renew this quickly so that the sales process can proceed, if that is a any reason for the holdup. Nic just wants to get gold extracted so they can get taxes off the back of it. We have to assume the sale is proceeding and hopefully on the very last details as really this should be completed this month. November will be pushing it if there is any chance to conclude by christmas. We would be more than 60% of the way to production if they sorted the financing back in 2022 and at this level of gold price we would be looking at a much higher share price than today. Even if we raised £30m and borrowed the other £80m we would have been pushing well over £100m valuation by now and probably on excitement of production a lot more. furthermore other miners would be more inclined to buy just before going into production at a proper valuation closer to the $400m NPV
Surprised the hard core disciples haven’t run to mc defence maybe they’ve realised he just a waffler
I have a theory that might explain the delaying of getting binding offer, in fact "la India concession" which represents most of Condor's reserves will expired in the end of 2026, No company will invest hundreds of millions of $$$ without guaranting the government will renew it for 30 more yrs
Perhaps this also explains why Calibre doesn't rush to sign a deal, even though it makes perfectly sense for them, more likely for them to get the concession for free straight for the government and just negotiate with condor for the value of the land.
On the other hand, I don't see the government renewing the concession rights to Condor without confident that the project is underway. In the current situation, this is an impossible situation
Lack of action.
The BoD may be furiously paddling beneath the surface, but none of us can see it. Come on guys give us a clue. There must be something positive you can say. And if you can't then we really do need to bring the thing to and end. We all need to know where we stand.
I suppose I was one of the most optimistic as regards timelines. Back in January I thought there was a fighting chance of cutting a deal by the end of the tax year. Well that came and went. Never in my most pessimistic moments did I think it would run to the end of October. Not just from an optimist/pessimist perspective, but from experience. I've been involved in the sales of companies during my career, small and large. Even the biggest, multi-billion projects didn't take this long. And trust me, they were highly complex and messy. Condor isn't.
We need to know where we stand and what the forward plan is. Please don't continue to flog what currently looks like a dead horse sale process. There is value in Condor but this particular method of extracting it doesn't seem to be working.
I really want to eat my words on the sale process. Serve them up on a 'we've sold it' platter and I gladly will.
I had forgotten when I first took a interest in Condor. In old money it was 250,000 shares on October 7th 2009. Fourteen years I've had shares in Condor! I've bought more and sold some over that time, but I've always kept a core holding. Those first few shares, post consolidation, actually stood me at 13.4p. Had I just stuck with those and not bought any more I would actually be in profit today. Alas not I'm way under water at 17p due to over enthusiasm.
It's always darkest before the dawn, but at least you know it's coming. I really do feel that we should have some sort of update on where we are given that we are a hair's width from the annual anniversary of the sale process starting. In the absence of news we all tend to fear the worst, with some of us bailing out due to pure boredom. And in the absence of news, the broader market perceives it as a complete lack of corporate activity with, apparently, no hints of anything changing anytime soon.
What I do know is that at 17p we are 7p - 8p below our book value, which itself is at least half (probably a third) of what the actual market value of the assets are. Our market makers seem to think that dropping the price 1/2p every now and then is the only way of making a market. But, as I noted a few weeks ago, it doesn't seem to have any effect. The broader market doesn't seem to buy in to the idea that something might be happening at corporate level. Why would you park cash in Condor shares when the board have given no indication of when the process might end, or even if it ever will? Many of us put an extra few quid in Condor last year to help see this process through. I don't think anyone signed up with the expectation of a year.
It's time for plan B, and to pull the plug on the sale process. The price of gold is holding up well and most 'experts' are not calling for the price to fall. Perhaps even the suggestion that a project finance exercise is underway, and a hard stop on the sale process, might spur a bidder into action. The clock is ticking. It's ticking in terms of working capital, in terms of investor patience and in time. We only have a few weeks before the Christmas shut downs start, and then it will be February before anything happens.
Plan B needs to be to raise the capital to start the mine. We may not have the expertise, so we need to import it. Kill all the old share options and introduce a new set tied into operational mine deliverables and share price.
Jessie Livermore may have said that he made the most money by waiting. But I bet he didn't wait 14 years for an investment to give a return. There are limits.
I've no time for silly comments or BoD related conspiracy theories. But I do think that the time is virtually up for this bid fishing exercise. A letter needs to go out signalling an intention to finish the process by Christmas. Any longer and the share price will drop below half of book value, or even lower, given the lack of interest and apparent la
Since the Chinese came and MC posted “in the bag” it can only be delays on chinese side or MC side. If latter he should be working hard to make sure everything is sorted. I assumed it was land that he announced was all done so maybe ball is back in Chinese court. First Majestic sold us equipment at 50p a share so lets see if they might also want to take a shot at buying Condor. Its depressing to see Market cap 50% less than cash invested last 12 years. I really hope this month it is resolved but i hope Mc has not put all eggs in Chinese basket and stopped doing site visits for other parties as Chinese are known for last minute hardball. However gold price and swelling cash balances at gold miners must surely present some opportunities. Really hope this does not stretch much further as they would never have started this process if they had not originally had half decent offers and this process was supposed to firm bids and speed up process but here we are 10 months into the year. Come on and close the deal.
We’ve cleared 14 hectares and given 50 25 litres of water out. Now if that was a question on who wants to be a millionaire ( who catche phrase is this 💼💼💼🏦🏦🏦🏖️🏖️🏖️🛳️🚁🚀it was the mc the waffling ⚓️
He could be just good grunter which I believe he is talks a good job and gets push on regularly that’s why some big hitters have jogged him on and poor old I want to live for every is stuck with him
There is a consistency with MC though, when he is an explorer he doesn’t do any drilling or exploring, when he is a miner he does no mining and when he is selling a site he doesn’t do any selling. Why he is paid anything for this lack of productivity is a mystery?
Spot on - Onion is dire, simple as!
Think I might try a bit of this Stocking Syndrome as we approach my entry price
Can't rember how many years its been since I posted but, as an lth who has been in since pre consolidation, thought I would give my view.
Not surprised the share price is where it is from a management performance perspective as there is nothing to invest in here. Reflecting on the last 12 (ish) years and taking into consideration what I have learnt from other investments I feel that there is no real investor interest for good reason, which are:
1. There has never been a plan that has allowed any form of measure in relation to a final outcome or success. No milestones or dates have ever been put forward that would allow for performance scrutiny. What serious investor(s) are going to invest in that? Remember, the only advantage of not having a clear and defined plan is that failure comes as a complete surpise!
2. CNR's pesentation material looks very unprofessional. When you think how much money CNR has spent over the years it is very hard to understand why management havent parted with a few quid on fiverr.com to make it look professional. One of my investing lessons learnt from CNR is, when researching, read the detail as well as how it's presented as it says a lot.
3. Decisions. 'We're an Explorer", "We're now Miners", "No, we are explorers again and we are going to sell" ??? What will it be next week?
4. And the most important in my view, the sector. If you want to see a chart as bad as CNR's take a look at the Precious Metals one. Since the sale announcement and fluctations due to cash raising, we have simple followed the same pattern.
That's my thoughts anyways. Probably totally wrong which would not surprise me as, lets face it, I'm still invested in the hope that there is some sort of return after 12+(?) years.
Will keep reading the board as it's usually always a bit of a giggle. Really hope this is my last post on cnr as if it isn't and I post with my usual regularity we will still be here in 2027!
:D
Who said it was Chinese awax and if it was why couldn’t it be announced as the sale is still open with no site visit being taken on in the last 3 months
It almost feels like marks gone to ground with someone posting old dribble on x
It always takes a bit longer with these sorts of takeovers, as the Chinese need to seek government approval for their overseas investment.
Maybe Jim can sell the new mill to Calibre, they are looking to expand, that will pay for a couple of years of salaries
Stockholm syndrome well and truly in effect here.
I will say I almost admire Jim and Mark's ability to hold PIs in such disdain and not suffer more backlash than they have - this just simply wouldn't fly in a properly regulated environment. If they don't manage over 40p, this will go down as a spectacularly notable laughing stock (pun intended).. we are literally sat on piles of gold with no way to extract it because "Well, don't be silly, we're not miners now! These supple hands are made for shaking, not actual work. Besides, we just thought the mill would look nice on the mantle!"
When all is done here, then at the very last JM can crack on with his other more interesting projects, like writing "Moos Law 2: How to More Effectively Milk Your Investors", or "When Life Gives You Mellons, Make Cultivated Plant-Based Protein Burgers", or "Death? That's Something that Happens to Other People!".
A bitter drag over the line, this is. Wrap it up boys, we all want to go home.
No rush? If we are here this time next year has it not occurred to you that we could have built a new mine during this two year period instead of said period being a complete waste of time if no deal is the up shot of the 'Proper Process'?
The Peckham spring water project seems to be the best news so far
They are in no rush to get a deal done , we could be here this time next year, Jim will have to put more cash in though to keep the ship afloat, if he doesn't get his price, could he offer a buyout above the best offer???
I wonder what the next bit of verbal diarrhoea mark and jimbo will come up with
🎂🎂🎂nearly anniversary time
E l, I think the fact that there would have to be a mine build is one reason that makes calibre unlikely imv. Calibre have a large scale exploration budget for their own burgers that is very fruitful. I think their model is to buy and develop existing mines. I am not convinced that toll deal was ever close. Should be noted that b2 had a holding in calibre long before the deal was signed off so they were negotiating for quite some time. Of course it is not impossible that something could develop but unlikely imv.
https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/24104/B2Gold-Acquires-an-Additional-23450000-Common-Shares-of-Calibre-Mining-Corp.
Agree that China is the most likely suitor for many reasons and would expect nica gvnt to be most receptive to that scenario, and they still have a say in proceedings.