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Calibrale is in no hurry anywhere
1.Condor is 8 months away from expiration date on la India concession. (Where most reserves are located) Then it returns to the ownership of the Nicaraguan government and calibre can apply without paying a cent to Condor ( except for the land which of course would be significantly cheaper without concession rights)
2. Most reserves contain relatively low-grade 1.8g/t The cost of developing the mine without processing plant is about 70M add to that transportation cost to their facility in la libertad... I'm not sure there's a profit there, it's hard for me to see a scenario where Calibre builds another planet when they're working on 50%capacity at the existing facility.
3.The calculation of the NPV Was done few yarts ago however in parallel with gold prices, also gas prices, machinery , labor y other expenses increased accordingly.
4.Condor's NPV calculation is, complete joke for many reasons but the main issue they actually calculate by 5% discount In the current global inflation and taking into account this jurisdiction It's not even a joke,
Whoever thinks Calibre is going to pay morethan the current market price better wake up...
year and a half and we're in the same place, unfortunately, with the same c***py management
It's amaze me that after a year and a half in the sales process, people believe in these numbers, if it was such a hot commodity, someone would already be willing to pay, For the same reason that Condor has not been able to obtain financing, it will also not be able to obtain a buyer for the "right price" the main problem is the cost of development, combined it with a problematic jurisdiction, (to say the least) , so it's a quite a risk. in the end it doesn't matter how good the NPV looks like It's still upfront quarter of a billion USD and a few years befor you see a panny back. What is not attractive to banks is also not attractive to the buyer unless Jim Internalize like many investors here that it is a failed investment (mainly because of dumb decisions of MC.) And now we have to save what's left because soon the main concession will expire and then we'll be left with land in Nicaragua on which we can grow rice.
It won't surprise if the goal was to improve binding offers in the worst case scenario if it doesn't work you can always get rid of the shares and make a few cents along the way ,well it didn't work... so with no news we on the way down again
Someone seems to be building a very nice position here, almost 10% of the company's shares changed hands since Wed, this is significant, It seems unlikely that random german newsletter caused it, the volume is just too high..
In my opinion, there are 3 possible scenarios.
1. Someone heard something and playing on the gray area.. dangerous game but possible.
2.One of the current big SH was fed up with the conduct and the dilutions and decided to build a counter position to JM and Mc In order to gain influence on management, In this scenario, I would bet on someone with an affinity for mining rather than an investment company, for example First Majestic who received their payment of 3m for the mill in papers and now it worth less than half .
3. Someone buys for JM so when he will decide to pull off the trigger of takeover It will be easy.
One thing for sure there is someone behind this and it is not that the market has suddenly woken up
Nero Loved the comparison and definitely gives hope the question is why Mc does not use the same strategy, publish the non-binding proposal, let's see if it creates interest, In the case of Cardinal, the initial offer reflected a premium of about 80% certainly impressive and unusual for an initial offer This of course, resulted creation of shareholder value and which led in the end a final sale at a premium of 68% on the final sp in the end of the process,
In the case of Condor, We didn't get the same transparency we know nothing and the market definitely doesn't trust MC so no one takes this non-binding offer as something serious, the result is a 50% drop,
precisely for these reasons it is important to have someone at the top with experience in acquisitions and mergers or at least experience in mining and definitely not the clown running it right now
Ccc "therefore his interest in CNR delivers a good outcome for him, it can only be good or reasonable outcome for the rest of us" no offense i'm starting to like your naivety, currently JM is about 5% away from the takeover point and he has enough 15p warrants to pull the trigger at any moment, so takeover can be the move in this case I'm not so sure about "good or reasonable outcome for the rest of us"
Ccc I agree with your statement regarding "JM business experience and thought process under ever increasing pressure" I just don't think your interests or mine are included in any of "JM business experience thought process under ever increasing pressure"
Here we go... you distilled in one sentence the problem of Condor Why is someone who is not a miner functioning as CEO of a mining company? Even if we assume it's the right move to sell, isn't good idea that the one in charge of the process would be someone with a reputation for mergers and acquisitions of mining assets. Is it too much to ask?
@justone I appreciate your opinion, but if Mc is not fair, why doesn't he take responsibility, resign and transfer the responsibility to someone with experience and expertise? everyone agrees that 15 years is enough time to draw conclusions , his performance and his strategy have failed in every parameter, the least he can do is to look at the eyes of his investors and say I disappointed you , I failed and I take responsibility, It should have happened a long time ago and it's a shame it didn't
@justone Let's assume your arguments are right, why isn't the SP sky-high? , for the same reasons you believe future buyer would agree to pay a 300 % premium can't we equally assume the market should react tha same , and if the market despite all the good reasons you mentioned are clearly not impressed,( probably mainly because of the jurisdiction) I prefer to be realistic and not assume that miraculously future buyer will.the past year proves this point, GLA
Very simple @electric I believe Condor has a great assets with poor management and management can be change any moment right now I'm taking a bath a so selling now won't make a big difference but my hope is that the shareholders or even JM will make the logical decision that base on their performance, the current management must go
unbelievable, 30 minutes of mc bull****ing about meeting with some chinese diplomat and people here are actually hallucinating about 50p 60p wake up, no one is going to pay a premium of 300% above current sp i wonder what people here smoke? would love to see a similar precedent anywhere in the world including tire 1 jurisdiction, forget about nicaragua the average premium has been paid for acquisitions in past years is 35% at best.
the sale of such assets is a bad idea, and even if it happens, and it will only take place after a "takeover"
otherwise, someone will lose and billionaires don't like to lose bottom line until condor's shareholders internalise what b2gold, hemco, calibre, and mako understand from the beginning, nicaragua is not a jurisdiction that creates value and no matter how good your reserves are, on the other hand, nicaragua is excellent place to generate cheap and stable cash flow, (if you are smart enough to get to production before insolvency ) and then leverage that strong flow to create value elsewhere , b2 did it at the time, calibre just a mount ago .
what about instead of burning cash by paying law firms and mc's travel to meet chinese diplomat , why we don't deserve a professional management with experience in latam to lead us asap for plan b in order to generate flow and increase it over time, everything else just pipe dream.
People here are excited as if the assets being SOLD,
Don't want to ruin the party but it's important to stick to the facts RNS with absolutely No NEWS There's nothing we didn't know other than vague wording about having "advanced talks" God knows what that even means
What we do know
A. JM has likely invested over £20M in CNR over the years however total value of his shares worth about 6.5M , A failed investment by all accounts , (and this is without calculating inflation, etc.)
B. JM must inject money to ensure sufficient financial runway apparently there is no other idiot who would do it so he has no choice
C. After the current dilution, he will hold over 25% so is getting very close to "takeover" point.
D. The one who is diluted is us,
E. If we continue to receive exciting news like "advanced talk" within a week, SP will Will crash again.
Conclusion JM just buying time to save his investment the only way he can do it is a low SP, takeover and sale of assets as a private company Today's news is just another step in that direction. And the joke as usual is on us, GLA
@Condor forever, Come on you just proofing my point, If I remember correctly, Mc in one of interviews stated that Condor has invested in 12 yrs close to 100m yet the current cap is less than 30M, LBH everywhere else for destroying a much less value the CEO would be already looking for a job at Starbucks surely the Board shouldn't approve any bonuses In return for such "incredible performance"... well.. condor is different... The question is way? JM has a clear interest to save MC'S ass and he probably has a good reason for it... He's not a billionaire because he's dumb, he's a billionaire because he's willing to leverages the money of people like some idiots here!
@Condor forever Let's be fair MC holdings of 4.5M shares didn't happen overnight , in fact this year MC exercise only 63,000k shares for 0.24p negligible amount by all accounts , and guess what it was done on April 5 at that smae day SP was at 27.5 The decision to crash the SP was probably taken in mid-May since then we see a price plunge without any significant action on the part of management to stop it. So the amount of shares Mc has in hand is irrelevant These are stocks he has accumulated over the years, What matters is what happens from mid-May that SP decreased from 35P to current SP of 14p
@****goestheeasal unfortunately the explanation you offer is the only one that makes sense i think 8 months ago jm understood that he was he was scammed by mc, the assets aren't that attractive so his investment seems to have gone down the drain, at taht point a decision was made to destroy the sp let's be honest a company that really wants to sell its assets at the highest price invests a lot in pr in order to keep the sp high, none of that happened even the biggest fanatical fans of mc here will have a hard time explaining his conduct, lack of communication, when he's finally being interviewed, it's done on in an amateurish and sloppy way on iphone camera and of course he speaks for an hour and doesn't say anything, when something is published on x it's usually some kind of environmental b****t or health care for the local poor community , bottom line the master plan is first to get the sp to 10p then a takeover offer for 20p we would all be grateful to the savior for the generous offer , and puffs a months later the assets will be sell for 30-40p, of course, in order to succeed in such a plan you need a puppy ceo well.. in the case of a condor this is not a problem...
the only way to stop this is for shareholders to say enough is enough and make a decision to send mc to his original job as a failed trader, there he can't damage that much.
Gold prices are irrelevant to the value of a condor even if the gold will reach 3000k The market has rightly lost faith in the current management certainly in the performance of MC, no one really believes that MC can get one oZ out of the ground .
I believe Calibrale's chances of making a binding bid have greatly increased: they will need a lot of cash flow coming from Nicaragua to finance the project in Canada they already have a processing plant so the only initial investment is developing La India it self I wouldn't be surprised if we hear news in the next few days, however the price will be lower than what most here think, less than 20p if they paid 200M£ to marathon I don't see how they pay more than 40M£ for Condor