Member Info for BenBen88

I don't have fomo lol, It's a game, once more successful once less! The fun begins when you have a CEO like MC, and then cheap buying opportunities arise I believe the peak will be 40 (in case of sale) and lowest 15( plan B and and further dilution ) , If it goes down to 20 or up to 40, I'll sell

Simms45, The point is... if your predictions come true, I won't forgive myself lol

Great day I'm getting close to 100% again... wonder whether to sell half

I don't think I've ever written anything insulting or, called someone stupid,not my style, As a trader for 15 years I have lost and gained and and like everyone else I try to gain more than to lose, if you're in for 15 years/£2 Looking back, you know the answer..... Now I really hope you'll get that value at some point, Unfortunately based on the data it will be a bit complicated but in the market anything can happen gla

In answer to your question I am an investor, my opinion in the case of Condor is not negative at all, I am currently at 70% profit and I believe I will reach 100%, But as an analyst I am a big believer in going into detail and understanding the philosophy of the company and who are the people driving the strategy, I have been following Condor for years in the previous rounds I mainly lost, in this case I am optimistic yes my opinion is clear condor is not a company that can be profitable in LT (Ask any the LTH here) , But "in and out" can work big time precisely because of the mismanagement and the low SP.

By the way the purchase of the sag mill was a just cynical "ramping move", It's like buying furniture before buying a house. It has no meaning and no value, unfortunately it's been the strategy for 16 years, every time to come up with some spin that will give more oxygen to pay G&A expenses.

The good news is that we're getting close this time, it's scenario of "to be or not be"

the market will not buy a spin like plan B And Jim will put the money, so I guess it will end up at 30-40 or most likely JV with calibre with no extra investment

either way, whoever enters between 15-20 will double the money in the coming months.

Simms45 On what basis do you make such assumptions? buyer making a $150m bid and $150m build, and in 2 years from now in best scenario will get 100-150-koz revenue Such a company would at best be worth half a calibre (220koz + assets abroad) At worst less than MINEROS ( 120koz) Anyone who looked at the market would know that's is not likely to reach In the coming years the value of the investment,

not in the current environment, Take a look at the data of all 3 TSX companies that already producing in Nicaragua.

Condor can be an interesting deal for private investors but 300M It's tough

Slimshady69 I hope your prophecy does not come true "No buyer and more money needed" That, will be the end of Condor's story, Those Days that JM inject money (with underworld interest rates) are over, he's getting to close to to takeover point. Choosing between insolvency or selling at market price, Mc will run to sell.

Sims45, You listen too much to Mc's interviews. :)

these are all assumptions and assumptions in general are hard to sell,

Stick to the facts, according to the World Gold Council, the average AISC for gold mining was $1,167 in 2022, up from $973 per ounce in 2020

We don't have all the factors to know the actual number however take 2 factors that can be checked, for example the price of fuel Condor C% calculate it 3usd per gallon The price today , (tax excluded) More than 4usd.

Same for the minimum wage More than 10% increase.

So to assume that Nicaragua is different from the rest of the world its simply not true, Also regarding what you wrote about Calibre, factually it is not true: they were not in great debt,they bought cheaply because the reserves were limited , but guess what They invested give or take the same amount that Mc invested in 16 years, and doing it while generating strong cash flow from day one.And within 3 years they have more than a million oZ in reserves 100M cash and and current production of more than double Mc's future dreams in his famous scenario B. So as always, what matters is the facts, everything else is just smoke

Simms45 You choose what is convenient for you in scenario B, but you all based on bad assumptions

1.the AISC of 1000 is base on 1469koz for LOM You assume that that it is the same for AISC for 2000koz but no research has been done on this, yes we know that gold exists, we don't know how much it will cost mine it. On top of that the processing plant is design for 150koz PA , 200 koz is another story.

2.you refer to 2000GP, but don't forget that just as the GP has increased since October 2021 Equally AISC, It is difficult to know the ratio but definitely not the same AISC as October 21,

3. You ignore the tax component.

4. you don't apply any discounts.

5. You ignore cost of purchasing the assets.

5.Even if we assume that AISC didn't change since October 21 stiik @1550Gp Net Cash flow post tax and the initial investment ( excluding the purchase of assets) was 428M, At GP of 2000 You can add 22.5% Still far for billions. So yes Ignoring all this factors , you can reach any profit you choose, but based on Condor's own data, the picture is different.

And remember even if you choose to look at Net Cash flow (0NPV) Excludes cost of condor assets is just 400M for 10 years, apply discounts and cost of condor assets And you're talking about a huge investment And pretty poor return , and this is still in the optimistic scenario B in the other scenarios is even worse, so no, I'm sorry no billions in profits,

It's true that Capex on Scenario B is $160m however you ignore some important points in the scenario B Total production 1550koz, 150koz PA it will require sustaining cost of 250M So it's not just a the Capex If in the end you are left with no profit or minimal profit for such a large investment

Simms45 I totally agree with Seingred

Let's do the numbers on scenario B, but first AISC In a nutshell means the total costs of operating a mine, This does not mean that the rest of the revenue is profit, now Let's do actual numbers in scenario B Which is the most profitable but also the most expensive in terms of initial investment.

total revenue 2.3b

( UG +pits)

Total Operating Costs 1,168.18M (AIC If you wish) Cashflow post taxes

908.73M

Total Capital Expenditure 428M

net free cash 480.45M

NPV@5 310M

Add capital cost of purchasing the assets @ 60p

And in best case you probably Around 150M,

And remember scenario B the Total Capital Expenditure 428M before purchase cost of the assets. This is a very large amount for initial investment as indicated the actual investment exceeds the market cap of calibre with annual production 220koz.

Again, If its sells for 60p It will be amazing for all of us But the numbers say something else I prefers to be realistic.

The numbers that some here are spreading on future potential profit are simply lie ,base on the latest feasibility study (October 2022)In Economic Analysis section (page 360) it describes the following scenario,

La India open pit,

Capital Expenditure

1O5M

LOM about 9yrs

Au 548koz

Net revenue/GP1600 875.90M

Net Free Cashflow 135M

NPV@5% 86M

IRR 23%,

Payback/month 40

Now, some would say 5% discount it's an extremely optimistic rate considering global inflation and the geopolitical situations in Nicaragua ( and they're probably right) , however let's not be petty and let's assume it is the correct one, yet assuming JM is asking the 60p ( apx 130M USD ) so the initial upfront capital will be @ 235M.

running this numbers and you'll get a negative NPV

Even if a potential buyer will assume that the GP will stay in a current "1900 range" still asking 60p+, lucky to end up break even. There are a few more "attractive" models but the initial investment is much larger, however based on the latest interview it seems MC knows all this very well so is trying to get more value on the potential 5m oz , unfortunately it doesn't exactly work that way,

Anyone here who writes that the project will generated 1B profit is simply not saying the truth (In the above scenario not even in revenue) It's a nice project that even according to Condor's own data, doesn't justify an investment of a quarter of a billion or more . Add to it very problematic jurisdiction, risk of sanctions, Etc any reasonable investor will come to the conclusion that at best we will get for the assets in lucky day is 40p , Personally, it works for me it will reflect 100% on my investment, Gla

In other words, you are saying that MC lied about the plan B in order to get a better price for us, sounds crazy but unfortunately makes sense plan B has no economic or financial feasibility without scenario of takeover which is basically a sale but in this case to JM himself

Everyone is talking about plan B as an option, Where will the money come from ? After the farce of the sale? If no one agreed to pay close to what Mc asked who will finance such a loan? And Jim? will he invest 30/40 M for plan B? currently he holds 20% worth Less than 10M ? Someone really thinks Jm will inject an amount equal to the company's market cap? Let's be realistic

Dictumdedicto, I agree with your interpretation but equally we should all be concerned about plan B (of Jm Writing a check) for exact same reason, serious dilution Before we know if the market will reward the initial investment for developing the mine.

Nicaraguan gold is a small market, exports totaling 800M/YEAR, sanctions on the private sector will do nothing but harm the working class, The latest sanctions are aimed at eliminating the state-owned mining company and its collaborations with the private sector, (by the way, Biden is Irish, it's personal, not political ;) )

Poloshirt, The US government has no control over what a private/public company does as long as they are not doing direct business with the Nicaraguan govt I see no difference between a condor and calibre , so far the US sanctions are aim to prevent direct cooperation/JV with ortega's govt,

Of course, steps like the genius Mc did in September, to meet the president and run with it to the media, could lead to an escalation of sanctions, as happened in last October,( immediately after that meeting,) but I assume that as long as relations between the companies and the regulator remain under the radar and no businesses are involved there is no reason for the US government to harm privete companies

Ccc I'm sorry I didn't mean to answer disrespectfully and I apologize if it was implied in that way, I respect your opinions and just like you I hope Mark manages to get a buyer at 60 and more on the other hand even if he sells at 40p which I think is a more realistic price It will be great at least from my perspective and based on my investment.